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Egypt
At stake: President
Background
(Angus Reid Global Scan) - For centuries, Egypt came under successive Assyrian, Persian, Macedonian, Roman and Arab rule. In 1517, the area was absorbed into the Ottoman Empire. Following the construction of the Suez Canal, British troops took control of Egypt in 1882, with the area becoming a British protectorate in 1914.
In 1922, the country became independent with Fuad I as king. Thirty years later, Fuad's son was ousted after a coup led by the Free Officers' Movement, led by Gamal Abdul Nasser. The July 23 Revolution effectively ended the monarchy. Muhammad Najib took over as president and prime minister.
In July 1956, Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal. Britain, France and Israel launched an invasion of Egypt in October, with hostilities ceasing a month later.
In June 1967, Egypt, Jordan and Syria fought the Six-Day War against Israel. The three-country alliance was defeated, and Israel took control of Sinai, the Golan Heights, the Gaza Strip, East Jerusalem and the West Bank. Three years later, Nasser died and was replaced by vice-president Anwar Sadat.
Under Sadat, Egypt once again initiated a military offensive against Israel, and re-opened the Suez Canal. In 1979, Sadat and Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin—with the mediation of United States president Jimmy Carter—signed the Camp David peace accords. Sadat's actions were condemned by other Arab leaders.
On Oct. 6, 1981, Sadat was assassinated by members of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad—who were upset at a government-sponsored crackdown on Muslim organizations—during a parade in Cairo. Hosni Mubarak—who had acted as vice-president—took over as head of state. Mubarak instituted an emergency law which forbids unlicensed public gatherings and limits the activities of opposition movements. The law remains in place in 2005.
Mubarak would earn re-election in 1987, 1993 and 1999. In those three ballots, the president was nominated by the People's Assembly and ratified in a nationwide referendum.
The pro-presidential National Democratic Party (HDW) has dominated the political scene in the country for decades. In the 2000 election, the HDW secured 353 seats in the unicameral legislative branch. More than 30 independents later sided with the governing party in the chamber.
In 2004, several opposition activists assembled under the Kefaya (Enough) banner. The group, led by George Ishaq, has organized several protests and called for changes, including the implementation of American-style term limits—two four-year terms—for Egypt's head of state.
Opposition supporters have long been concerned over the possibility of hereditary succession. Mubarak—who turned 77 in May 2005—did not rule out becoming a presidential contender once again. Current prime minister Ahmed Nazif—who became head of government in July 2004—has openly endorsed Mubarak's son Gamal as a possible presidential nominee.
In September 2004, eight political parties and seven non-governmental organizations issued a joint press release, setting out to achieve clear objectives: stopping the elder Mubarak from seeking a new mandate, preventing his son from ascending the presidency, and forcing an open nationwide ballot to pick the head of state. The Muslim Brotherhood, one of the signatories, has seen its activities greatly reduced due to a ban.
On Jan. 29, 2005, Ayman Nour—the leader of the Al-Ghad (Tomorrow) party—was arrested and jailed for allegedly forging documents in order to officially register his political organization. Nour was released in March 2005.
2005 Presidential Election
On Feb. 26, Egyptian head of state Hosni Mubarak announced his intention to amend the constitution and allow an unprecedented multi-candidate presidential election. Direct, secret balloting would be allowed, and political parties would have a chance to register contenders.
The actual wording of the amendment established that independent presidential contenders would require the support of 65 members of the People's Assembly in order to officially become candidates. Those backed by actual political organizations would require ratification by the government's Parties Affairs Committee.
The proposal was criticized by the opposition Al-Wafd (New Delegation) party, which complained that 80 per cent of the sitting lawmakers belong to the ruling National Democratic Party (HDW).
On May 25, voters participated in a referendum to enact the proposed constitutional changes. The Al-Wafd party urged supporters to boycott the plebiscite, while the banned Muslim Brotherhood urged for a "No" vote. In the end, 83 per cent of all voters supported the amendment to allow a multi-candidate election.
On Jul. 18, an Egyptian government official revealed to Agence France-Presse that the presidential election would take place on Sept. 7. Incumbent Mubarak was widely expected to seek a new term in office.
While voting is purportedly compulsory in Egypt, citizens can only register during seven days every November. When the presidential election was called, only 36 million of Egypt's 72 million inhabitants were eligible to cast ballots.
On Jul. 19, Al-Ghad (Tomorrow) party leader Ayman Nour criticized the choice, saying, "Advancing the date is a catastrophe, an illogical decision. How can one campaign in such short notice?" Nour had already declared his intention to become a candidate. Human rights campaigner Saad Eddin Ibrahim and female activist and writer Nawal Saadawi have said they would not run. Kefaya (Enough) founder George Ishaq claimed that the tight schedule means candidates "won't have any chance to campaign."
On Jul. 20, Progressive National Unionist Party (HTWTW) leader Rifaat al-Said announced a boycott, saying, "We had asked for radical changes to the constitution allowing for anyone to take part in the election, but the changes made do not allow for real competition." Nasserist Party (NP) secretary general Diaa Eddin Daoud declared, "It is not clear yet if someone will express the wish to run in the election but the majority of the party is against the elections."
On Jul. 23, at least 88 people were killed and 120 were wounded in a series of coordinated bombings in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheik.
On Jul. 24, Mubarak inspected the area. In a nationally televised address, the president declared, "This cowardly, criminal act is aimed at undermining Egypt's security and stability and harming its people and its guests This will only increase our determination in chasing terrorism."
On Jul. 28, Mubarak officially announced his candidacy, saying, "I intend on applying for nomination so that I can run for the office of president in this coming presidential election." The incumbent promised "that the upcoming election will be competitive, free and fair, with maximum transparency, offering equal opportunities to all the nominees."
In July, a group encompassing 8,000 Egyptian magistrates called for a boycott of the presidential and legislative ballots unless transparency was guaranteed by the government.
On Aug. 1, the Al-Wafd party announced the nomination of Numan Gumaa for the presidential election. The political organization had originally declared that the registration process was too complicated to actually challenge the incumbent.
On Aug. 8, the Presidential Election Commission released the list of 10 eligible candidates. Along with Mubarak, Mour and Gumaa, the remaining contenders were Ahmed al-Sabahi Awadallah of the Ummah party, Osama Shaltout of the al-Takafol (Solidarity) party, Mamdouh Qinawi of the Constitutional Party, Fawzi Ghazal of Egypt 2000, Ibrahim Turk of the Unionist Democratic Party, Refat al-Agroudi of the al-Wifaq al-watani party, and Wahid al-Uqsori of the Arab Socialist Party.
On Aug. 13, presidential adviser Osama el-Baz dismissed the idea of allowing observers, saying, "Our neutrality is not under doubt. Egypt is not under a mandate to accept international monitors to supervise elections."
On Aug. 17, campaign activities officially began. Nour launched his bid, calling for a two-year "transition to democratic rule," adding, "Under Mubarak, for the past 24 years, we have lived under oppression. In the constitution today, the prerogatives of the president are those of a God." Nour vowed to serve only for two years, and hold "free presidential elections" in September 2006, following a referendum on constitutional reform.
Mubarak minimized the opposition, saying, "This is a sensitive phase, and it is not enough to deal with it with promises, empty words and catchy slogans that jeopardize the destiny of our people."
The Mubarak election platform includes a proposal to create 4 million new jobs in Egypt, and raise the salaries of low-income civil servants. The incumbent also vowed to draft anti-terrorism legislation which "would serve as a legal substitute to the application of the emergency law."
On Aug. 22, the banned Muslim Brotherhood urged voters to participate in the election, but steered clear of actually endorsing any of the opposition contenders. Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohammed Mahdi Akef said it would be "unthinkable for us to decide to back Mubarak."
An August poll by al-Usbu' placed Mubarak well ahead with 63 per cent of the vote, followed by Gumaa with 8.2 per cent, and Nour with 7.7 per cent.
On Aug. 30, Egyptian Organization for Human Rights (EOHR) secretary-general Hafez Abu Seada expressed little confidence in the democratic process, declaring, "I don't expect we will reach a fair or true result because steps until now have shown a lot of arbitrariness and a lack of transparency."
The EOHR and other non-governmental organizations and human rights groups have urged the government to allow election monitors. The Presidential Election Commission has only authorized judges and representatives of candidates to be present at polling stations. U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack urged the Mubarak administration to change its stance, saying, "We urge the Egyptian government to allow in election monitors, election observers. This is not a comment on the state of their democracy. It is something that is commonly done."
The campaign ended on Sept. 5—two days prior to the presidential ballot. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off will take place on Sept. 17.
On Sept. 6, prime minister Ahmed Nazif said the government respected the Presidential Election Commission's decision to prohibit election observers, saying, "I personally would have loved to see everybody looking (in the polling stations) because we have nothing to hide and we want to show that the election is free. I cannot of course speak for the commission, because they are the ones in charge."
Voting took place on Sept. 7. Preliminary reports suggested a low turnout in the early hours. The Presidential Election Commission allowed independent groups into polling stations "on condition that they do not interfere in or block the elections process." Mohammed El-Sawi of the EOHR expressed satisfaction with the decision, saying, "If the election would be fair and clean, I think they have nothing to hide."
Nour called the election "a defining moment in the country's history as Egyptian voters were able to choose freely who will lead them." The opposition candidate expressed disappointment with the lengthy process, saying, "It took me seven minutes to vote. (...) At this rate, there will not be enough time for everybody." Hundreds of protesters belonging to the Kefaya (Enough) group demonstrated in Cairo. Some incidents of vote-buying, intimidation and pressure from government supporters were reported.
On Sept. 8, Presidential Election Commission spokesman Osama Atawia rejected calls for a re-vote, saying, "The commission checked the request and ended up denying it. The commission concluded that the facts referred to in the request were untrue."
Information minister Anas al-Fiqi expressed satisfaction with the process, declaring, "There may be some comments, maybe some violations happened, but we have to agree that we're seeing an experience that we can build on for a future that realizes more freedom and more democracy in the Egyptian society."
Preliminary reports released on Sept. 9 put Mubarak ahead with at least 70 per cent of the vote, with almost half of all polling stations reporting. Nour rejected the projection, saying, "The results are not fair at all. (...) We will call for a re-vote."
Official results were released on Sept. 9, giving incumbent Hosni Mubarak of the National Democratic Party (HDW) 88.6 per cent of all valid votes, with Ayman Nour of Al-Ghad with 7.3 per cent, and Numan Gumaa of Al-Wafd with 2.8 per cent.
Turnout was tabled at 23 per cent. Egyptian officials had declared a 79 per cent turnout in the 1999 presidential referendum.
On Sept. 10, White House spokesman Scott McClellan expressed the views of the U.S. government on the Egyptian democratic process, declaring, "This election represents an important step toward holding fully free and fair competitive multi-party elections, and both supporters and opponents of the government have told us that it has occasioned a vigorous national debate in Egypt on important issues."
On Sept. 11, Mubarak vowed to deliver change, saying, "With all determination and persistence, I will work on creating a modern society for free citizens in a democratic country."
On Sept. 27, Mubarak took the oath of office again. The People's Assembly was later dissolved to allow for a legislative ballot in November.
Political Players
President: Hosni Mubarak (HDW)
Prime minister: Ahmed Nazif (HDW)
The president was elected to a six-year term by the People's Assembly, and confirmed by a popular referendum. Starting in September 2005, the president will be elected to a six-year term by popular vote.
Legislative Branch: The Majlis al-Sha'ab (People's Assembly) has 454 members; 444 members are elected to five-year terms (400 by proportional representation and 44 in single-seat constituencies) and 10 members are appointed.
Results of Last Election:
President - Sept. 7, 2005
Vote% | |
Hosni Mubarak - | 88.6% |
Ayman Nour - | 7.3% |
Numan Gumaa - | 2.8% |
People's Assembly - Oct. 13, Oct. 29, and Nov. 13, 2000
Seats | |
National Democratic Party (HDW) | 353 |
Non-partisans who later joined HDW | 35 |
Al-Wafd (New Delegation) Party | 7 |
Progressive National Unionist Party (HTWTW) | 6 |
Nasserist Party (NP) | 3 |
Liberal Party (Ahrar) | 1 |
Non-partisans | 37 |
Vacant | 2 |