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Election Date: December 18, 2005

At stake: President, National Assembly

Background

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - The landlocked South American nation has seen four presidents in less than four years. Natural resources and more constitutional rights for the indigenous majority are the biggest challenges for the next Bolivian government.

The first economic measures taken to protect Bolivia's national resources and extend rights to the native indigenous population were taken under the rule of Víctor Paz Estenssoro—of the pro-miner Nationalist Revolutionary Movement (MNR)—between 1952 and 1955.

The MNR was in power until 1964, when a military junta leaded by general René Barrientos replaced the civil government. A leftist guerrilla uprising led by Cuban Ernesto "Che" Guevara was stopped when, with help from U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) operatives, Guevara was killed in the mountains.

Bolivia saw a succession of coup d'états from then on. In 1971, colonel Hugo Banzer Suárez took power and with radical measures aligned the country towards a pro-United States policy. Banzer was forced to resign when an all-military government took control and imposed martial law.

During the 1980s, civil rule was reinstated. MNR ex-president Hernán Siles Zuazo was re-elected in 1982, and was later succeeded by Paz Estenssoro.

In 1986, the collapse of the tin market resulted in 21,000 miners loosing their jobs. Three years later, Jaime Paz Zamora of the Revolutionary Left Movement (MIR) won the presidential election. Zamora promoted foreign investment by showcasing Bolivia's mining resources.

In 1993, MNR member Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada won the presidency and enhanced privatization and general open market policies. In 1997, former dictator Hugo Banzer won a democratic election, and sought to continue his reform plan.

Banzer launched an aggressive program against the farming of coca—a crop from which cocaine is produced. In April 2000, a state of emergency was declared after widespread protests against the coca eradication program.

Banzer's health problems forced him to quit before the end of his term, and Jorge Quiroga became Bolivia's interim president before the June 2002 elections. That year none of the candidates was able to garner more than 50 per cent of the vote. Former president Sánchez de Lozada won a new term, with only 22.5 per cent of the vote. His closest rival was the Aymara Indian and coca-leaf farmer Evo Morales—leader of the Movement to Socialism (MAS)—with 20.9 per cent.

By 2003, almost 60 per cent of Bolivians were living in poverty. The nation's weak economy and clashes between coca farmers and the government led to social unrest. More than 30 people were killed in violent protests against a proposed income tax, and over 80 died in demonstrations against a proposal to export natural gas through Chile in September.

Sánchez de Lozada was forced to flee, and vice-president Carlos Mesa took office in October 2003.

A series of decisions regarding the hydrocarbon industry resulted in massive demonstrations against the government in April 2004. Mesa got approval for exporting gas through Peru in a July referendum.

2005 Presidential and National Congress Election

In January 2005, interim president Carlos Mesa faced demonstrations against his government when high fuel prices caused protests in the wealthy region of Santa Cruz and the capital's suburb of El Alto. Leaders of Santa Cruz also demanded more autonomy for their region.

On Mar.7, Mesa tendered his resignation after a disagreement with a law on hydrocarbons that was being reviewed by legislators. His petition was rejected. A week later, Mesa proposed holding early elections to leave the political crisis behind, but again, the National Congress rejected his request.

On May 17, the new law regarding the country's hydrocarbon industry was promulgated. A 32 per cent tax on oil and gas production for foreign companies exploiting Bolivia's natural gas reserves—the second-largest in Latin America after Venezuela—was introduced. The measure provoked massive street demonstrations. Thousands of miners, peasants, farmers and education workers lead by Movement to Socialism (MAS) leader Evo Morales demanded the actual nationalization of the industry and a new constitution recognizing more rights for the indigenous population. Inhabitants of the wealthy region of Santa Cruz joined the protests, demanding greater autonomy for the country's regions and more revenues from the exploitation of their soil. Many also requested Mesa's resignation.

On May 21, political and community leaders in Santa Cruz called for a referendum on the region's autonomy on Aug. 12.

On May 23, the capital city of La Paz was left isolated after the suburb of El Alto launched a general strike. Food and water became scarce, as protests spread throughout the country by the start of June.

On Jun. 6, Mesa presented his resignation again. The National Congress accepted his offer three days later. Hormando Vaca Díez and Mario Cossío—the speakers of the two houses of the National Congress—declined their constitutional right to succeed Mesa in order to avoid further unrest. Pleasing the demands of Bolivians, Supreme Court chief justice Eduardo Rodríguez was sworn in as interim president.

On Jul. 6, Rodríguez and the Congress agreed to sign a decree to schedule a presidential and legislative ballot for Dec. 4. They also announced that a constituent assembly and a referendum on the current division of powers would take place in July 2006.

On Jul. 9, former Bolivian head of state Jorge Quiroga presented his candidacy for the presidential elections with the Nationalist Democratic Action (ADN). Quiroga—who served as president from 2001 to 2002 after Hugo Banzer resigned due to health reasons—accused MAS presidential candidate Morales of being "too close" to Venezuela's left-wing president Hugo Chávez.

An early July poll by Universidad Franz Tamayo showed National Unity Front (FUN) candidate Samuel Doria Medina as the top contender in the presidential race with the support of 15.2 per cent respondents, followed by Morales with 14.8 per cent.

A late July Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado/La Razón survey put Quiroga in first place with 22 per cent, followed by Doria Medina with 16 per cent, and Morales with 15 per cent.

In August, Morales named fellow MAS member Álvaro García Linera as his running mate. Doria Medina urged all political forces to "assemble a front against Evo."

A mid-August Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado/La Razón survey kept Quiroga in first place with 22 per cent, followed by Morales with 21 per cent, and Doria Medina with 14 per cent.

On Sept. 3, Quiroga announced that television reporter María René Duchén would be his vice-presidential nominee. Doria Medina had previously presented Santa Cruz politician Carlos Dabdoub as his running mate.

By mid-September, eight presidential candidates had been registered. Along with Quiroga, Morales and Doria Medina, the final list of contenders included Michiaki Nagatani of the Nationalist Revolutionary Movement (MNR), Gildo Angulo of the New Republican Force (NFR), Felipe Quispe of the Indigenous Pachakuti Movement (MIP), Néstor García of the Bolivian Workers Social Union (USTB) and Eliseo Rodríguez of the Bolivian Farming Patriotic Front (FREPAB).

A mid-September Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado/La Razón placed Morales as the new frontrunner with 28 per cent, followed by Quiroga with 22 per cent, and Doria Medina with 19 per cent.

On Sept. 20, Morales ruled out any post-election pact with Doria Medina, adding, "It is not our intention to enter any type of alliance with neo-liberal parties." Morales also suggested easing the regulations for the cultivation of coca leaves, and said his government would be tailored around three ancient principles: "No stealing, no lying and no being lazy." The MAS candidate also vowed to seek a balance in the cabinet, saying, "We will combine intellectual capabilities with social conscience."

A late September Encuestas & Estudios maintained Morales in first place with 26.1 per cent, followed by Quiroga with 22.6 per cent and Doria Medina with 12.3 per cent.

On Sept. 22, the Constitutional Tribunal ordered a redistribution of members in the Chamber of Deputies to reflect the latest population census. The ruling was met with defiance in the provinces of La Paz, Potosí and Oruro, which are set to lose seats.

On Oct. 12, acting president Rodríguez said the government "has no plans of postponing the electoral process."

On Oct. 13, the campaign period officially began. Morales promised to "nationalize" Bolivia's energy resources. Quiroga expressed concern over a possible delay in the election, and accused "certain sectors" of "putting the democratic system at risk as well as the future of our country."

On Oct. 30, Morales warned "lawmakers" that a failure to hold the election as scheduled "would lead to an armed insurrection to liberate the people."

On Oct. 31, Quiroga rejected Morales' statement, saying, "He himself is a lawmaker. (...) He is trying to create an atmosphere that would allow him to take power by force."

On Oct. 28, the National Electoral Court cancelled the elections after the National Congress failed to reach an agreement on how to redraw the legislative districts.

On Nov. 2, the election was re-scheduled for Dec. 18. Interim president Rodríguez said Santa Cruz and Cochabamba would have three more legislators and one more lawmaker respectively in the legislative branch. Conversely, La Paz and Oruro will lose seats.

On Nov. 14, Morales ruled out participating in a debate with Quiroga, saying, "I do not intend to meet with a son of neo-liberalism. (...) I have nothing to say to (former president) Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada's twin." Podemos issued a communiqué, urging all candidates to join public meetings so the people "can have the opportunity to choose and compare programs and proposals."

On Nov. 22, Morales expressed his opposition to a deal—signed by Sánchez de Lozada—where Bolivia vows not to remit U.S. military personnel to the International Criminal Court (ICC), saying, "American immunity in our country cannot be accepted. We must defend our sovereignty and the dignity of our people." Quiroga has also rejected the agreement.

November polls by Grupo Ipsos Captura and Equipos MORI put Morales ahead with more than 30 per cent of the vote.

On Dec. 4, the government called for an inquiry over a statement by MAS member Román Loayza, who said his political party would reach power "either by good or bad means" and added that MAS politicians had already contacted members of the military and police officers.

On Dec. 5, Morales accused interim president Rodríguez of becoming involved in the campaign, saying, "The president has joined the race in support of one of the traditional, neo-liberal parties, thereby collaborating in a dirty war against the MAS."

A poll by Grupo Ipsos Captura released in early December put Morales ahead with 32.8 per cent, followed by Quiroga with 27.7 per cent, and Doria Medina with 9.4 per cent. A survey by Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado gave Morales a six-point edge over Quiroga.

On Dec. 7, Quiroga ruled out any type of post-election deal with Morales, declaring, "We have very clear differences with the MAS in topics such as the fight against drugs and trade. We will only discuss agreements with political parties that advocate for a real change."

On Dec. 8, seven candidates participated in a forum organized by the Confederation of Private Businessmen of Bolivia (CEFB). Morales refused to attend. Quiroga said election day would mark "the end of coalitions and mega-coalitions."

The two main candidates closed their campaigns in different cities. In Tarija, Morales declared, "We appeal to the people who want change to support us so we can get 50 per cent plus one." In Potosí, Quiroga said he had "complete confidence" in victory.

The last voting intention poll released in the campaign by Grupo Ipsos Captura put Morales ahead with 34.2 per cent, followed by Quiroga with 29.2 per cent.

In accordance with the constitution, lawmakers in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate select the president from the top two finishers in the event no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of the vote.

On Dec. 17, MAS campaign coordinator Alex Contreras declared, "We have detected manoeuvres to forge an election fraud against us. If Evo's victory is impeded, Bolivia will explode." U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said Washington expects "whatever government comes next in Bolivia to honour those commitments that they have made to fight the production and transport of illegal drugs."

Voting took place on Dec. 18. An exit poll by Equipos MORI gave Morales 45 per cent of the vote, followed by Quiroga with 33 per cent. An exit survey by Apoyo Opinión y Mercado put Morales ahead with 41.2 per cent, followed by Quiroga with 36.3 per cent. Another study by Ipsos Captura had Morales in first place with 44.5 per cent, with Quiroga at 34.3 per cent.

Official results gave Morales 53.72 per cent of all cast ballots. The MAS leader declared, "This is the new history of Bolivia. We, the indigenous people have been called animals and savages. (...) That is not important any more."

Turnout was tabled at 85 per cent.

Morales was sworn in on Jan. 22, 2006.

Political Players

President: Evo Morales
Vice-president: Álvaro García Linera

The president is elected to a five-year term by popular vote.

Legislative Branch: The Congreso Nacional (National Congress) has two chambers. The Cámara de Diputados (Chamber of Deputies) has 130 members, elected to five-year terms by proportional representation. The Cámara de Senadores (Chamber of Senators) has 27 members, elected to five-year terms by proportional representation.

Results of Last Election:

President - Dec. 18, 2005

National Congress - Dec. 18, 2005

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