Angus Reid Global Monitor : Election Tracker

Voters ponder Obama and McCain

 

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Election Date: November 4, 2008

At stake: President, Congress

Background

In American presidential elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. The members of the Electoral College represent each state of the union with a previously determined number of electoral votes, in accordance with the results of the popular vote in each state.

Incumbent George W. Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. In the 2000 election, Bush garnered 271 electoral votes after winning 30 states, while Democrat Al Gore got 266 electoral votes from 20 states and the District of Columbia. The Democrat’s total should have been 267, but an elector decided to cast a blank vote to protest D.C.’s lack of representation in the U.S. Congress.

The 2000 election proved controversial. The ballot’s final outcome was in limbo for weeks, as the recipient of Florida’s 27 electoral votes remained unknown due to problems with outdated voting machines. A series of court injunctions and recounts finally ended in a 537-vote victory for Bush over Gore in the Sunshine State.

Bush’s tenure was marked by the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, which led to the start of the war on terrorism against al-Qaeda fighters and members of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan; and the invasion of Iraq to topple the government of Saddam Hussein in March 2003.

In November 2004, Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Click here for 2004 United States Election Tracker 

In November 2006, American voters renewed the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate. In January 2007, the Democratic Party took control of the lower house for the first time since 1994, with 233 lawmakers. A victory for the Democratic candidates for the Senate in Montana and Virginia also gave the party a majority in the upper house. Democratic California congresswoman Nancy Pelosi became the first female speaker of the House.

Click here for 2006 United States Election Tracker

2008 Presidential and Congressional Election

The 2008 United States presidential election will be the first one since 1952 to have neither an incumbent nor a current or former vice-president on either of the two main tickets.

The list of Republican candidates included Arizona senator John McCain, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, Texas congressman Ron Paul, California congressman Duncan Hunter, Colorado congressman Tom Tancredo, and former diplomat Alan Keyes. In March 2008, McCain secured the required number of delegates to become the presumptive Republican nominee.

The list of Democratic candidates included Illinois senator Barack Obama, New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, former North Carolina senator John Edwards, New Mexico governor Bill Richardson, Delaware senator Joe Biden, Connecticut senator Chris Dodd, Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich, and former Alaska senator Mike Gravel. In June 2008, Obama secured the required number of delegates to become the presumptive Democratic nominee.

In February, consumer advocate Ralph Nader Nader announced his intention to run for president as an independent. In May, Bob Barr—who represented Georgia’s 7th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1995 to 2003—became the Libertarian Party’s presidential nominee.

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The Main Presidential Candidates on the Issues

Abortion

John McCain strongly opposes abortion and is very much "pro-life". In turn, he strongly promotes adoption and wants to overturn the Roe v. Wade abortion decision and return the abortion question to the individual states. Voted "yes" to the 2007 Prohibiting Funds for Groups that Perform Abortions amendment. Supports the Supreme Court ruling to uphold the Partial Birth Abortion Ban Act.

Barack Obama is a strong advocate in the woman’s right to choose and is therefore defined as "pro-choice." Opposes any constitutional amendment that would upend the Supreme Court’s ruling in Roe v. Wade. Did not approve of the Supreme Court ruling to uphold the "Partial Birth Abortion Ban Act."

Definition of Marriage

John McCain supports the protection of marriage – which he defines as a clear union between a man and a woman.

Barack Obama also believes marriage is "something sanctified between a man and a woman." He voted against a Federal Marriage Amendment and opposed the Defense of Marriage Act in 1996.

Same-Sex Marriage

John McCain supports the definition of marriage as a union between a man and a woman but opposes a constitutional amendment that would ban marriage between gays and lesbians – a decision he thinks should be left up to the individual states. He does support legal benefits for same-sex partners.

Barack Obama advocates civil unions between gay and lesbian couples but does not openly support gay marriage. Instead, he suggests leaving the matter up to the individual states to determine whether marriage between gay and lesbian couples should be legalized and opposes a constitutional ban against same-sex marriage.

Education

John McCain voted in favour of "No Child Left Behind." Wants to see more charger schools, supports home schooling. Wants to reward good teachers and give parents the ability to choose the school they want their children to attend.

Barack Obama wants to reform the "No Child Left Behind" Act and ensure high- quality early childhood education programs and child care opportunities. Wants to recruit well-qualified teachers and reward exiting expert, accomplished teachers. Wants to make college more affordable and make science and match education a national priority. Wants parents to take more of an interest and become more involved in their children’s education.

Fiscal / Taxes

John McCain initially voted against the 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cut laws but later voted in favour of extending them through 2010. Opposes "Fair Tax" proposal which would repeal income taxes and other taxes and abolish the Internal Revenue.

Barack Obama opposed the extension of the 2003 Bush tax cut law through 2010. Supports eliminating marriage penalty and extending child tax credit. He wants to stop wasteful government spending, cut pork barrel spending and make government spending more accountable overall. He wants to reinstate PAYGO and scale back capital gains and dividends tax cuts and re-examine tax benefits for the top one percent of earners. Goal is to close the $350 million gap between taxes owed and taxes paid.

Economy

John McCain would like to lower the corporate tax rate from 35 per cent to 25 per cent and cut taxes for the middle class, as well as doubling the personal exemptions for dependents. Wants to reward saving, investment and risk taking, as well as to improve business investment incentives and make it harder to raise taxes. Would reform social security and control Medicare growth. Wants to establish a permanent tax credit equal to 10 per cent of all wages spent on R&D. Plans to ban internet and cell phone taxes and reform the Unemployment Insurance System.

Barack Obama wants to provide tax cuts for low income families and simply tax filings for middle-class Americans. He has an immediate plan to put $75 billion into the economy via tax cuts and direct spending targeted to working families, seniors, homeowners and the unemployed (with $45 billion in reserve should the economy continue to deteriorate). Wants to extent and expand unemployment insurance. He also supports job creation, investing in US manufacturing and boosting the renewable energy sector and wants to invest in rural small business and ensure people are guaranteed the freedom to unionize. He plans to raise the minimum wage and create a universal mortgage credit.

Housing

John McCain says the federal government may intervene to limit effects of the ongoing mortgage crisis only as a last result – if the existing measures fail.

Barack Obama proposes the creation of a $10 billion fund to help prevent foreclosures, eliminate some taxes and fees for families who have to sell their home and offer counseling to homeowners. He also wants to provide tax credits to 10 million middle class homeowners who feel the pressure of high mortgage costs and revealed a "credit card bill of rights" to promote disclosure of hidden credit costs.

Immigration

John McCain also wants to tighten border security and co-sponsored the same Bush-backed immigration reform legislation to improve border security through a variety of means – and he also voted to authorize construction of the 700-mile fence.

Barack Obama wants to create secure borders by way of additional personnel, infrastructure and technology. He also wants to increase the number of legal immigrants and remove incentives to enter illegally. He proposes working with Mexico to promote economic development in Mexico and decrease illegal immigration. He co-sponsored Bush-backed immigration reform legislation and voted to authorize construction of a 700-mile fence along the U.S. – Mexican border.

Environment

John McCain co-introduced the Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act of 2007 – designed to reduce the country’s greenhouses gases via a policy that would utilize a market-based cap and trade system. Proposes the use of alternate energy sources (such as nuclear).

Barack Obama would put into play an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a level recommended by top scientists. Wants to ensure the United States becomes a leader in the global effort to fight climate change by creating a new international partnership. Supports clean coal technology and wants to establish a national low carbon fuel standard and increase the renewable fuel standard. Wants to confront deforestration and develop domestic incentives that reward forest owners, farmers and ranchers when they make environmentally-friendly choices.

Energy

John McCain proposes a climate policy that would utilize a market-based cap and trade system (that would set caps on carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and provide industries with tradable credits) and would spur the development and deployment of advanced technology. Wants to develop a climate change adaption plan and provide leadership for effective international efforts – and wants a national energy strategy that will rely on the technological abilities of the American industry and science. Believes barriers to nuclear energy are political not technological. Supports the safe storage of spent nuclear fuel and recommends giving host states or localities a proprietary interest.

Barack Obama wants to reduce carbon emissions by 80 per cent by 2050. Also wants to invest $150 billion over 10 years in clean energy and double energy research and development funding as well as invest in a clean technologies workforce. Would require that 25 per cent of renewable electricity consumed in the U.S. is derived from clean, sustainable energy sources by 2025. Improve energy efficiency by 50 per cent by 2030 and commence a grant program for early adapters. Suggests the creation of a new forum of largest greenhouse gas emitters and wants to re-engage with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

NAFTA

John McCain voted yes on NAFTA in 1993 and has called himself the "biggest free marketer and free trader that you will ever see."

Barack Obama advocates amending the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and fight for fair trade. Wants to eliminate tax breaks for companies moving overseas.

Guns

John McCain fights for the right to bear arms and opposes restrictions on "assault rifles." Supports instant criminal background when buying firearms as well as at gun shows. Opposes bans on the import of certain ammunition magazines and thinks that every firearms owner has the responsibility to learn how to safely use and store their firearm. Opposes the ban on ammunition, legislation requiring trigger locks for handguns and "waiting periods" for people wishing to purchase firearms. Disputes attempts to hold gun manufacturers liable for crimes committed by third parties.

Barack Obama would extend the assault weapons ban and supports a national law against carrying concealed weapons (with certain exceptions). Wants to limit gun sales to one per month.

Iran

John McCain also did not vote on the resolution to declare Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization – but says military action is an option. Would rather consult with congressional leaders before deciding on the proper way to act.

Barack Obama did not vote on the 2007 Senate resolution calling to declare Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization. Would leave the military option available but would rather use diplomatic force and meet with leaders face-to-face in his first year of presidency. Supports diplomacy without preconditions, offers Iran the option to change in exchange for incentives (like memberships in the World Trade organization).

Iraq War

John McCain originally voted for military force in Iraq and supported the Bush veto of a war spending bill that would have withdrawn most troops from Iraq by March 2008. Continues to advocates military force in Iraq to help the Iraqi government stabilize and govern itself. Calls for international pressure on Syria and Iraq to stop supporting terrorism in Iraq.

Barack Obama was an early contester to military force in Iraq and voted in favour of the war spending bill that would have seen the withdrawal of most troops by March 2008. Had called for troop withdrawal to take place as early as 2006 – and supports phased redeployment of US troops.

Israel

John McCain believes Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons poses an unacceptable risk to US and Israel and wants the US to continue its support for Israel (including providing military equipment and technology). Calls for continued work towards peace between the two states and thinks the Hamas government needs to be isolated. Does not support independent militias within the territory and calls himself "proudly pro-Israel."

Barack Obama thinks Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state should not be challenge – and supports US efforts to provide aid directly to the Palestinian people by bypassing any Hamas-led government that refuses to renounce violence and recognize Israel’s right to exist. Wants Iran to abandom its nuclear program, support for terror and threats to Israel (or deal with consequences such as sanctions and isolation). Believes a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine is possible, as long as Israel’s identity as a Jewish state is preserved.

Cuba

John McCain wants to keep the embargo aid in place and not allow any aid to flow to Cuba. Would "press the Cuban regime to release all political prisoners unconditionally, to legalize all political parties, labor unions and free media and to schedule internationally monitored elections." Supports the prosecution of Cuban officials implicated in the murder of Americans, drug trafficking and other crimes.

Barack Obama would life the embargo against Cuba if Cuba started releasing political prisoners, instituting free press and taking other steps towards democracy. Would like to normalize relations and is willing to meet the Cuban leaders without preconditions. Plans to also immediately allow family travel and remittances to the island.

Health Care

John McCain opposes federally paid universal coverage. Instead, he would increase awareness and promote the use of existing children’s health insurance programs. Supports lowering health care costs (cheaper drugs, cheaper care, promoting coordinated care, greater use of information technology). Wants to reform the payment system to cut costs and promote smoking cessation programs. Wants to pass medical liability reform and bring transparency to health care costs. Encourages small business to band together to negotiate health-care costs. Plans to combat autism in America.

Barack Obama would provide universal health-care and lower health costs, guarantee eligibility and comprehensive benefits. Proposes a new, national health care insurance program for individuals who do not have benefits and allows individuals to choose between the new public health program or the existing private insurance plans. Requires employers to provide health benefits to employees. Requires mandatory coverage for all children and allows individuals below the age of 25 to be covered through their parents’ plans. Supports advances in biomedical research and wants to improve mental health care, reduce the risks of chemical dangers and fights AIDS.

Social Security

John McCain supports a Social Security that is bipartisan. He thinks the system needs to be fixed for future generations of Americans.

Barack Obama strongly opposes the privatization of Social Security and believes Social Security will be strengthened through the payroll tax system. Supports increasing the maximum amount of earnings covered by Social Security and wants to work with Congress to choose a payroll tax reform package that will keep Social Security solvent for many more years.

Homeland Security

John McCain voted for the Patriot Act in 2001 and for its reauthorization in 2006. He wants to strengthen and increase the military and shore up alliances. Thinks the US needs the intelligence necessary to uncover terrorist plots in advance and the resources to protect critical infrastructure and borders against attack. Strongly supports the development and deployment of theater and national missile defenses. Wants to modernize the armed forces and reform the defense budgeting process (via smarter defense spending). Also wants to improve pay and benefits for military personnel and improve the quality of life for military families. Advocates honouring the country’s commitments to veterans and military retirees and would also close the Guantanamo Bay prison. Would revitalize US public diplomacy and work to recreate an independent agency with the sole purpose of getting America’s message to the world. Would also set up a new civil-military agency patterned after the Office of Strategic Services in World War II.

Barack Obama wants to secure nuclear waste and improve the evacuation of special needs population in emergencies. Wants to give extra protection to chemical plants due to their appeal to terrorists. Proposes better policies to reunite families after emergencies and policies to keep the drinking water safe and protect the public from radioactive releases. Plans to implement the 9/11 Commission recommendations. Will improve the US intelligence system by creating a senior position to coordinate domestic intelligence gathering. Voted to reauthorize Patriot Act in 2006, but wants to revise it. Also wants to update the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act to provide greater oversight and accountability to the congressional Intelligence Committees to prevent future threats to the rule of law. Wants to close the controversial Guantanamo Bay prison.

Stem Cell Research

John McCain supports federal funding for embryonic stem cell research only on non-human embryos or embryos that would otherwise be discarded or frozen. He is also strongly opposed to human cloning.

Barack Obama supports more federal funding for embryonic stem cell research.

Veterans

John McCain also wants to improve the quality of life for veterans and care for disabled veterans, as well as find ways to ease the veterans’ transition to civilian life.

Barack Obama wants to create a Department of Veterans’ Affairs that provides better care and benefits for veterans and rebuild the Veterans Association benefits system and combat homelessness among veterans.

Civil Rights

Barack Obama wants to ban racial profiling, overturn the Supreme Court’s ruling that curtails racial minorities’ and women’s ability to challenge pay discrimination and pass the Fair Pay Act that would ensure women receive equal pay for equal work. He also proposes the Employment Non-Discrimination Act to prohibit discrimination based on sexual orientation or gender identity or expression and the Matthew Shepherd Act (which would strengthen federal hate crime legislation). As part of his campaign, he also plans to provide job training, substance abuse and mental health counseling to ex-offenders.

Rural

Barack Obama wants to help family farmers versus large corporate agribusiness. He wants to regulate CAFO’s, support meaningful local control and establish country of origin labeling to distinguish local products from imported ones. He encourages organic and local agriculture and supports an increase in farmers’ and private landowners’ incentives to conduct sustainable agriculture. Wants to improve rural quality of life and connect rural America.

Judicial System

John McCain wants to "shape the judiciary through appointment power", by nominating judges who understand that their "role is to faithfully apply the law as written, not impose their opinions through judicial flat".

Service

Barack Obama wants to invest in the non-profit sector and wants to offer tax credits to college students in exchange for the provision of 100 hours of public service a year. He advocates expanding the Peace Corps and wants to engage retiring Americans in service on a large scale.

Urban Policy

Barack Obama supports the creation of a White House office on urban policy and advocates the fostering of healthy communities and more livable and sustainable areas.

Space Program

John McCain is a strong supporter of NASA and the space program and wants to see the return of astronauts to the moon in preparation for a manned mission to Mars. He also supports the continued US presence in space and thinks it is of major importance of America’s future innovation and security. Wants to ensure that NASA funding is accompanied by proper management and oversight to ensure that taxpayers receive maximum rate on their investment.

The Campaign

On Aug. 8, House speaker Nancy Pelosi said that she has a five-point list ready for the next American president. Pelosi said that she will advise the next White House dweller to “end the (Iraq) war, expand health care, create jobs through innovation, rebuild infrastructure and ensure our energy independence.”

On Aug. 23, Obama officially selected Delaware senator Joe Biden as his running mate. The presumptive Democratic nominee declared: “For decades, [Biden] has brought change to Washington, but Washington hasn’t changed him. He’s an expert on foreign policy whose heart and values are rooted firmly in the middle class.”

On Aug. 28, Obama accepted his party’s nomination, declaring, “What has also been lost is our sense of common purpose. And that’s what we have to restore. (...) One of the things that we have to change in our politics is the idea that people cannot disagree without challenging each other’s character and patriotism. I love this country, and so do you, and so does John McCain.”

On Aug. 29, McCain officially selected Alaska governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. The presumptive Republican nominee declared: “[Palin] stands up for what’s right, and she doesn’t let anyone tell her to sit down. She’s got grit, integrity, good sense, and fierce devotion to the common good—exactly what we need in Washington today.”

On Sept. 4, McCain accepted his party’s nomination, declaring, “We lost the trust of the American people when some Republicans gave in to the temptations of corruption. We lost their trust when rather than reform government, both parties made it bigger. (...) We’re going to recover the people’s trust by standing up again to the values Americans admire. The party of Lincoln, Roosevelt and Reagan is going to get back to basics.”

Since last year, defaults on so-called subprime mortgages—credit given to high-risk borrowers—have caused volatility in domestic and financial markets and raised concerns that the U.S. economy could fall into a recession.

In 2008, the U.S. government took control of mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Other financial institutions—including Bear Stearns, Merril Lynch, Lehman Brothers, American International Group (AIG), IndyMac Bancorp and Washington Mutual—have been sold, placed under bankruptcy protection, or received emergency loans from the Federal Reserve.

On Sept. 15, Obama criticized McCain, saying, “I certainly don’t fault Senator McCain for [recent economic] problems. But I do fault the economic philosophy he subscribes to. It’s a philosophy that says even common-sense regulations are unnecessary and unwise; one that says we should just stick our heads in the sand and ignore economic problems until they spiral into crises.”

On Sept. 20, McCain criticized Obama, saying “We’ve heard a lot of words from Senator Obama. Maybe just this once he could spare us the lectures, and admit to his own poor judgment in contributing to these [economic] problems. The crisis on Wall Street started in the Washington culture of lobbying and influence peddling, and he was right square in the middle of it.”

On Sept. 26, the two rivals participated in the first of three scheduled televised debates. In their closing messages, the contenders outlined their vision.

McCain declared: “I’ve been involved (...) in virtually every major national security challenge we’ve faced in the last 20-some years. There are some advantages to experience, and knowledge, and judgment. And I honestly don’t believe that Senator Obama has the knowledge or experience and has made the wrong judgments in a number of areas, including his initial reaction to Russian invasion. (...) and failing to acknowledge that he was wrong about the surge. (... ) We need more flexibility in a president of the United States than that.”

Obama stated: “I don’t think any of us can say that our standing in the world now, the way children around the world look at the United States, is the same. And part of what we need to do (...) is to send a message to the world that we are going to invest in issues like education, we are going to invest in issues that relate to how ordinary people are able to live out their dreams. And that is something that I’m going to be committed to as president of the United States.”

On Sept. 29, the House of Representatives rejected a proposal for the federal government to purchase up to $700 billion U.S. in assets from finance companies in a 228-205 vote. On Oct. 1, a modified version of the bill was approved by the Senate in a 74-25 vote.

On Oct. 2, the two main vice-presidential candidates took part in the only televised debate of the campaign.

In her closing statement, Palin declared: “I want to assure you that John McCain and I, we’re going to fight for America. We’re going to fight for the middle-class, average, everyday American family like mine. I’ve been there. I know what the hurts are. I know what the challenges are. And, thank God, I know what the joys are, too, of living in America.”

Biden stated: “No one can deny that the last eight years, we’ve been dug into a very deep hole here at home with regard to our economy, and abroad in terms of our credibility. And there’s a need for fundamental change in our economic philosophy, as well as our foreign policy.”

On Oct. 7, McCain outlined an idea to deal with the mortgage crisis, saying, “I would order the secretary of the treasury to immediately buy up the bad home-loan mortgages in America and renegotiate at the new value of those homes—at the diminished values of those homes—and let people be able to make those payments and stay in their homes.”

On Oct. 10, Obama dismissed McCain’s approach, saying, “Taxpayers shouldn’t be asked to pick up the tab for the very folks who helped create this crisis.”

Political Players

President: George W. Bush (R)
Vice-president: Dick Cheney (R)

The president and vice-president are elected in a single ticket to a four-year term by an Electoral College, whose members represent each state of the union with a previously determined number of electoral votes, in accordance with the results of the popular vote in each state.

Legislative Branch: The United States Congress has two chambers. The House of Representatives has 435 members, elected to two-year terms in single-seat constituencies. The Senate has 100 members, elected to six-year terms in dual-seat constituencies, with one-third being renewed every two years.

Results of Last Election:

President - Nov. 2, 2004

 

Electoral
Votes

Popular
Vote

George W. Bush -
Republican Party

286

51.03%

John Kerry -
Democratic Party

251 (*)

48.04%

Ralph Nader -
Independent / Reform Party

--

0.34%

Michael Badnarik -
Libertarian Party

--

0.32%

Michael Peroutka -
Constitution Party

--

0.11%

David Cobb -
Green Party

--

0.09%

Leonard Peltier -
Peace and Freedom
Party of California

--

0.018%

Walt Brown -
Socialist Party USA

--

0.008%

James Harris - Alternate -
Socialist Workers Party

--

0.005%

Roger Calero -
Socialist Workers Party

--

0.004%

(*) An elector from Minnesota cast a vote for Democratic vice-presidential nominee John Edwards in the presidential category.

House of Representatives - Nov. 7, 2006

 

Vote%

Seats

Democratic Party

57.7%

233

Republican Party

41.8%

202

Independent

0.1%

--

Other

0.4%

--

Senate - Nov. 7, 2006
(33 seats at stake)

 

Vote%

2006
Seats

2006
Strength

Democratic Party

53.7%

22

49

Republican Party

42.6%

9

49

Independent

1.5%

2

2 (*)

Libertarian Party

0.9%

--

--

Other

0.7%

--

--

(*) Two independent senators—Joe Lieberman in Connecticut and Bernard Sanders in Vermont—caucus with the Democratic Party.

 

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