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Ukraine
At Stake: President
Background
(Angus Reid Global Scan) - Since seceding from the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine has tried to balance its close ties with Russia with its aspirations of broader cooperation with the European Union (EU).
Leonid Kuchma has been the country's president since 1994, winning a second term in a run-off against Petro Symonenko of the Communist Party (KPU) on Nov. 14, 1999. The last years of Kuchma's tenure have been unsound. In 2002, a series of tape recordings hinted at the possible sale of hi-tech radar equipment to Saddam Hussein's regime. In 2003, Kuchma deployed peacekeepers to join the United States-led coalition effort in Iraq, a strategy that resulted in a drop in public support.
The president has also been chided for his perceived authoritarian style. Some non-governmental organizations have reported instances of harassment, and at least one independent radio station has been taken off the airwaves.
In December 2003, Ukrainian lawmakers close to Kuchma suggested changing the country's electoral law. Their plan called for the abolition of the presidential election by popular vote, to allow members of the legislative branch to pick the head of state. The proposal was narrowly defeated in the Supreme Council in February 2004.
2004 Presidential Election
In April 2004, Kuchma tabled prime minister Viktor Yanukovych of the Party of Regions (PR) as a presidential candidate. Opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko of the Our Ukraine (NU) party was widely regarded as the best chance for the opposition against Kuchma's hand-picked successor. Other registered candidates included Symonenko, Oleksandr Moroz of the Socialist Party (SPU) and Nataliya Vitrenko of the Progressive Socialist Party (PSPU).
The main challenge for Yushchenko was to unite all factions behind a single candidate. An April poll by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation put Yushchenko ahead of all contenders with 21.8 per cent, followed closely by Yanukovych with 16.4 per cent.
On Jul. 8 in The Hague, Kuchma guaranteed a free and fair ballot. The president invited observers from the European Union (EU) to monitor the election, asking them to "be objective" and to avoid arriving in Ukraine "with a predetermined opinion."
In July, a Democratic Initiatives Foundation/Center of Social and Political Investigations (SOCIS) poll regarding a possible run-off gave the edge to Yushchenko with 40.4 per cent, with Yanukovych garnering 31.1 per cent. A survey by the Razumkov Center put Yushchenko ahead of Yanukovych by 6.8 per cent.
In August, Yushchenko's campaign manager Oleksandr Zinchenko said the country's authorities pressured mass media outlets to favour Yanukovych. At least three television stations are controlled by current president Kuchma's son in law, Viktor Pinchuk. A study by two non-governmental organizations—the Common Space Association and the Equal Possibilities Committee—found that some outlets have devoted more air time to Yanukovych than to Yushchenko.
On Sept. 29, the EU urged the Ukrainian government to allow free and impartial media coverage during the campaign and the election. The statement read, "In the light of the conditions in which the campaign has been conducted so far, the EU reiterates the decisive importance assumed by the independence of the media and the freedom of expression for a fair and transparent campaign."
In September, Yushchenko received medical treatment for a stomach ailment in Austria. His aides alleged that the opposition candidate was poisoned by political rivals. Vienna's Rudolfinerhaus hospital originally ruled out poisoning on Sept. 28, but issued a new statement on Oct. 4 which said doctors could neither support nor refute the allegation.
In early October, a Kyiv International Institute of Sociology/Center for Social and Political Studies poll gave Yushchenko 31.5 per cent, and Yanukovych 30.6 per cent. On Oct. 11, Yushchenko returned to Ukraine from Austria.
On Oct. 23, tens of thousands of Ukrainians marched in Kiev in support of Yushchenko. The candidate urged voters "not to stay silent" if they witnessed irregularities during the ballot. Some windows were smashed at the headquarters of the Central Election Commission (CEC). The authorities blamed Yushchenko supporters for the destruction, but the opposition suggested that the incident could have been staged.
Voters headed to the polls on Oct. 31. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) deployed 600 officials, making Ukraine one of its largest monitoring missions. The CEC released results from 50.27 per cent of all precincts, which gave Yanukovych 45.48 per cent of all cast ballots, with Yushchenko in second place with 34.25 per cent. Turnout was tabled at 72 per cent.
An exit poll with 20,000 respondents—organized by the Kyiv International Sociology Institute, the Razumkov Center for Political and Economic Studies, the SOCIS Center, and the Democratic Initiatives fund—put Yushchenko in first place with 45 per cent, followed by Yanukovych with 37 per cent. Both the preliminary results and the exit poll suggested a run-off would be required.
On Nov. 2, Doros Christodoulides—head of the delegation of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe—criticized the country's electoral standards, saying, "Ukraine now has three weeks to show that it is willing to organize democratic elections in accordance with its commitments. The authorities should ensure that both candidates have equal access to, and unbiased coverage by, the media."
The foreign monitors observed several incidents in which voters were turned away from polling stations because their names were not on the electoral rolls, and chided the CEC for failing to deal with complaints from affected voters, many of them Yushchenko supporters.
A group from the Commonwealth of Independent States reported no flagrant violations that could have affected the election's outcome, and declared the ballot "legitimate, free and open."
In a parliamentary session, opposition parties accused Yanukovych and his allies of cheating. Former deputy prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko called for "a civil mobilization, a composed battle against the bandits."
On Nov. 10, final first round results were released. Yushchenko finished in first place with 39.87 per cent, followed by Yanukovych with 39.32 per cent. A second round between the two candidates was scheduled for Nov. 21. On Nov. 14, CEC chairman Sergei Kivalov said the body had only received half of the $16 million U.S. required to properly organize the run-off.
On Nov. 15, the two candidates faced-off in a live televised debate. Yanukovych derided Yushchenko for the economic policies he implemented as prime minister from 1999 to 2001, saying, "You and your team are bankrupt functionaries who got together to return to power. For you, all power is criminal unless it is yours."
For his part, Yushchenko accused the current government of controlling "the shadow economy" and serving the interests of businessmen. Yushchenko categorized the election as "a conflict between two world views, two moral systems. We have a choice: either we live as criminals or as free, well-to-do people."
The run-off took place on Nov. 21. Results of a new exit poll conducted by independent research firms tapped Yushchenko as the winner with 54 per cent, followed by Yanukovych with 42 per cent. Outgoing president Kuchma publicly questioned the validity of exit polls and alternative counts sponsored by the opposition.
On Nov. 22, the CEC released official results with 99.38 per cent of all votes counted. Yanukovych was in first place with 49.42 per cent, while Yushchenko had 46.70 per cent.
Once again, international observers condemned the use of state resources in favour of Yanukovych, and questioned the bias of media outlets. OSCE team leader Bruce George said, "With an even heavier heart than three weeks ago, I have to repeat the message from the first round; this election did not meet a considerable number of international standards for democratic elections." OSCE monitors said fraudulent strategies, such as people who voted several times and citizens who were forced to hand in their absentee ballots to state employers, had taken place during the run-off.
Yushchenko supporters assembled in Kiev's Independence Square, as their candidate declared, "We will not leave this place until we win. The will of the people cannot be broken. Their votes cannot be stolen."
On Nov. 23, an estimated 200,000 people protested the election's result in Kiev. Yushchenko led the demonstrators to the country's Parliament building. Yanukovych condemned the march, saying, "I categorically will not accept the actions of certain politicians who are now calling people to the barricades. This small group of radicals has taken upon itself the goal of splitting Ukraine."
The opposition was looking for a non-binding, no-confidence vote on the CEC, to openly question the validity of the election. Inside the Supreme Council floor, only 191 members showed up for an emergency session, below the 226 required to achieve quorum. Former deputy prime minister Tymoshenko hinted at direct action to demand the ballot's cancellation, saying, "We will have no choice but to block roads, airports, seize city halls."
U.S. senator Richard Lugar—the chairman of the U.S. Senate's Foreign Relations Committee—declared in Kiev that "a concerted and forceful program of election-day fraud and abuse" had taken place in Ukraine. The EU also demanded an urgent evaluation of the results.
The CEC released final results on Nov. 24, and declared Yanukovych the winner. Yushchenko said he would be willing to participate in a re-vote, provided the conditions for a new presidential run-off are "clean and transparent." European Comission president Jose Manuel Durao Barroso called for a "political solution" to the crisis, and urged the Ukrainian government to review the electoral process in a "serious and constructive" manner. Opposition supporters assembled in Kiev for the third straight day.
On Nov. 25, Ukraine's Supreme Court issued a statement that barred the CEC from proceeding with any action connected with the election, until the complaints of fraud voiced by the opposition have been dealt with. The tribunal effectively stopped the CEC from publishing official results, the first step in certifying Yanukovych's victory. Government officials from the United States, Canada and Britain denounced the election's result.
On Nov. 26, Yushchenko, Yanukovych and outgoing president Kuchma met for three hours, along with four European mediators: Lithuanian president Valdas Adamkus, Polish president Aleksander Kwasniewski, Russian Duma president Boris Gryzlov and EU envoy Javier Solana. According to Kuchma, all parties agreed to allow the Supreme Court to "painstakingly and impartially" evaluate the allegations of fraud. Yushchenko declared that he was willing to concede "one or two days, maximum" for the review to be completed.
On Nov. 27, 255 of 429 lawmakers present at the Supreme Council declared the presidential run-off invalid in a symbolic, non-binding vote. A no-confidence motion on the CEC was also passed. Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn declared, "The most realistic decision, taking into account the mutual claims of massive violations, is to pronounce the elections invalid." Yushchenko insisted on holding a re-vote on Dec. 12.
On Nov. 28, Kuchma urged for an end to public demonstrations outside government buildings, saying, "The attempts to block the work of authorities on the national and regional level is a serious violation of the law." Yushchenko and Yanukovych representatives met for a third consecutive day in an effort o end the crisis.
On Nov. 29, Yanukovych declared he would support holding a re-vote as proposed by Yushchenko, "if there is evidence of falsification." The prime minister also said the country faced the threat of separation.
On Dec. 1, 229 lawmakers in the Supreme Council voted to issue a no-confidence motion on Yanukovych's government and form an interim administration. In case Kuchma vetoes the measure, the opposition would require 301 votes to override the outgoing president. Later, Yanukovych requested the annulment of the presidential run-off to the Supreme Court.
Also on Dec. 1, the Donetsk region announced that a referendum on whether to become a "federative subject" within Ukraine would take place on Jan. 9, 2005. The Donetsk Regional Council voted 139 to 20 to proceed with the plebiscite.
On Dec. 3, the Supreme Court invalidated the results of the Nov. 21 presidential run-off between Yushchenko and Yanukovych and ordered a special re-vote to be held no later than Dec. 26. After reviewing evidence for five days, the Supreme Court concluded that loose regulations on absentee votes allowed for ballot-stuffing incidents in some polling stations, and pointed out that Yanukovych enjoyed an unfair advantage in media coverage. If the Supreme Court had ordered new elections instead of a repeat, Yushchenko and Yanukovych would have been banned from becoming candidates.
On Dec. 4, the CEC set Dec. 26 as the date for the unprecedented re-vote. The 53-year-old Yanukovych and the 50-year-old Yushchenko will be the only contenders. For almost two weeks, Yushchenko supporters have remained camped at Kiev's Independence Square. In a statement, Yanukovych deemed the decision to hold a new election as "a violation of the Ukrainian constitution." The Supreme Council was unable to pass a series of bills to amend existing electoral regulations.
On Dec. 6, Russian president Vladimir Putin declared in Turkey that his government would "accept the wishes of any nation in the post-Soviet territory and will work with any elected leader." On Dec. 2, Putin—who openly supported Yanukovych and congratulated him after the second round—had criticized the proposal to hold a repeat election in Ukraine, saying, "A re-vote could be conducted many times, until one side gets the results it needs."
Also on Dec. 6, the Canadian federal government announced the deployment of 500 election monitors to Ukraine. According to international cooperation minister Aileen Carroll—responsible for the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA)—the delegation represents "the largest number (of Canadian observers) ever sent abroad."
On Dec. 8, the Supreme Council approved a package of key constitutional and electoral reforms that had been demanded by the opposition. Under the approved legislation—which passed after a 402-21 vote in the legislative branch—the president no longer has the power to appoint his own government, but retains the right to reject parliamentary nominees for three positions: prime minister, foreign minister and defence minister. The Supreme Council can select all other cabinet members without presidential approval.
The electoral changes included restrictions on absentee ballots to prevent fraud, and a new composition of the CEC, which kept 11 of its previous members and welcomed four newcomers. The reforms brought an end to a blockade of government buildings.
On Dec. 10, Yushchenko declared that he expected to garner 60 per cent of all cast ballots in the re-vote. The opposition candidate dismissed talk of possible separation, saying, "There is no natural reason for Ukraine to split apart on grounds of east versus west, language or religious affiliation."
On Dec. 11, Vienna's Rudolfinerhaus hospital confirmed that Yushchenko had been poisoned. At a news conference, Dr. Michael Zimpfer declared, "There is no doubt about the fact that Mr. Yushchenko's disease has been caused by a case of poisoning by dioxin." In September, the candidate was treated at the Austrian medical facility. The illness left the candidate's face pockmarked. He also suffered from back pain, acute pancreatitis and nerve paralysis on the left side of his face.
A poll by the Razumkov Institute gave Yushchenko the edge in the re-vote with 47 per cent, with Yanukovych at 39 per cent.
On Dec. 20, the two candidates faced-off in a live televised debate. Both contenders appealed for calm during the re-vote. Yushchenko accused Yanukovych and his supporters of "stealing" the Nov. 21 run-off and said, "We have to make sure the Ukrainian president is not elected in Moscow, because these trips to Russia are very humiliating."
For his part, Yanukovych argued the opposition candidate would be unable to unify the country, saying, "If you win, you can only become president of part of Ukraine." [A transcript of the debate is available at the bottom of this page]
A poll by the Ukrainian Institute of Sociology and the Social Monitoring Centre conducted on Dec. 21 put Yushchenko in first place with 51 per cent, followed by Yanukovych with 37 per cent.
On Dec. 26, citizens headed to the voting booths for the third time with thousands of international monitors on hand to oversee the process. Results of three exit polls suggested a Yushchenko victory over Yanukovych. Surveys by the Razumkov Centre and ICTV gave the opposition candidate 56 per cent of the vote, compared to 41 per cent for the prime minister. A study by Sotsmonitoring put Yushchenko ahead with 58.1 per cent, with Yanukovych in second place with 38.4 per cent.
Official results with 99.78 per cent of all votes tallied put Yushchenko in first place with 52.06 per cent, followed by Yanukovych with 44.14 per cent. In Kiev, Yushchenko said, "This is a victory of the Ukrainian people. We were independent for 14 years, today we became free."
On Dec. 27, Yanukovych vowed to lead "a strong opposition" but did not concede, saying, "I will never recognize this defeat because there were violations to the constitution and of human rights in this country." Transport minister Heorhiy Kirpa—who supported Yanukovych—was found dead outside his home with a gunshot wound.
On Dec. 28, the CEC released final results, giving Yushchenko the victory with 51.99 per cent of all cast ballots. On Dec. 30, a series of challenges to the re-vote presented by Yanukovych were rejected. CEC member Marina Stavniychuk said, "Evidence submitted in the claim does not prove mass violations."
On Dec. 31, Yanukovych resigned as prime minister, saying, "I find it impossible to occupy any post in a government headed by these authorities."
On Jan. 5, 2005, Yanukovych filed a final appeal to the Supreme Court. Outgoing president Kuchma accepted Yanukovych's resignation, and appointed finance minister Mykola Azarov as acting prime minister. Two new appeals by Yanukovych were rejected in mid-January.
On Jan. 23, Yushchenko took office at a ceremony in Kiev. The president declared, "Our way to the future is the way of a united Europe. We, along with the people of Europe, belong to one civilization. We share similar values."
On Jan. 24, Yushchenko appointed former deputy prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko as the new acting head of government. The Supreme Council confirmed her nomination on Feb. 4.
Political Players
President: Viktor Yushchenko
Prime minister: Yulia Tymoshenko
The president is elected to a five-year term by popular vote.
Parliament: The Verkhovna Rada (Supreme Council) has 450 members, elected to four-year terms; 225 members are elected in single-seat constituencies, and 225 are elected by proportional representation.
Results of Last Election:
President - Oct. 31, Nov. 21 (*) and Dec. 26, 2004
Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | |
Viktor Yushchenko - | 39.87% | 46.61% | 51.99% |
Viktor Yanukovych - | 39.32% | 49.46% | 44.19% |
Oleksandr Moroz - | 5.81% | -- | -- |
Petro Symonenko - | 4.97% | -- | -- |
Nataliya Vitrenko - | 1.53% | -- | -- |
Anatoly Kinakh - Party of Industrialists | 0.93% | -- | -- |
Oleksandr Yakovenko - Communist | 0.78% | -- | -- |
Oleksandr Omelchenko - | 0.48% | -- | -- |
Leonid Chernovetsky - | 0.45% | -- | -- |
Dmytro Korchynsky - | 0.17% | -- | -- |
Andriy Chornovil - | 0.12% | -- | -- |
Mykola Grabar - | 0.07% | -- | -- |
Mykhailo Brodsky - | 0.05% | -- | -- |
Yuriy Zbitnyev - | 0.05% | -- | -- |
Sergiy Komisarenko - | 0.04% | -- | -- |
Vasil Volga - | 0.04% | -- | -- |
Bohdan Boyko - | 0.04% | -- | -- |
Oleksandr Rzhavsky - | 0.03% | -- | -- |
Mykola Rogozhynsky - | 0.03% | -- | -- |
Vladislav Krivobokov - People's | 0.03% | -- | -- |
Oleksandr Bazilyuk - | 0.03% | -- | -- |
Igor Dushyn - | 0.03% | -- | -- |
Roman Kozak - | 0.02% | -- | -- |
Volodimir Nechiporuk - | 0.02% | -- | -- |
Against all candidates | 1.98% | 2.31% | 2.34% |
(*) On Dec. 3, the Supreme Court invalidated the results of the Nov. 21 presidential run-off between Yushchenko and Yanukovych and ordered a special re-vote to be held no later than Dec. 26.
Supreme Council - Mar. 30, 2002
Vote% | Seats | |
Viktor Yushchenko Bloc Our Ukraine (NU) | 23.6% | 112 |
Communist Party of Ukraine (KPU) | 20.0% | 66 |
For United Ukraine (ZYU) | 11.8% | 102 |
Yulia Tymoshenko Election Bloc (VBJT) | 7.2% | 21 |
Socialist Party of Ukraine (SPU) | 6.9% | 24 |
United Social-Democratic Party of Ukraine (SDPU) | 6.3% | 24 |
Nataliya Vitrenko Bloc (BNV) | 3.2% | -- |
Women for the Future (ZM) | 2.1% | -- |
Team of Winter Generation (KOP) | 2.0% | -- |
Communist Party of Ukraine, Renewal (KPUO) | 1.4% | -- |
Green Party of Ukraine (PZU) | 1.3% | -- |
Yabluko (Apple) | 1.2% | -- |
Unity (Y) | 1.1% | 4 |
DPU-DS Coalition | 1.2% | 4 |
Non-partisans | -- | 95 |
