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Angus Reid Global Monitor : Election Tracker
United States
Credit:Flag courtesy of ITA’s Flags of All Countries used with permission.
Election Date: November 2, 2004
Abstract: At Stake: President, CongressAt Stake: President, Congress
Background
The presidential and congressional election in the United States was scheduled for Nov. 2. Republican incumbent George W. Bush sought a second consecutive term in office. His tenure was marked by the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, which led to the start of the war on terrorism against al-Qaeda fighters and members of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan; and the invasion of Iraq to topple the government of Saddam Hussein in March 2003.
After the events of 9/11, Bush enjoyed a high approval rating that approached 90 per cent. In the third year of his administration, public support dropped to close to 50 per cent, due to prolonged military activity and economic setbacks. Bush raised more than $256 million U.S. for his re-election campaign.
Massachusetts senator John Kerry garnered the support of enough delegates to become the Democratic Party's presidential candidate. Kerry began his chase for the White House by winning the Democratic presidential contests in Iowa and New Hampshire in January. Kerry captured 31 of 34 caucuses or primaries by mid-March, cementing his position as the strongest Democrat in the U.S. The senator raised $114 million U.S. for his presidential bid.
In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House.
In the 2000 election, Bush garnered 271 electoral votes after winning 30 states, while Democrat Al Gore got 266 electoral votes from 20 states and the District of Columbia. The Democrat's total should have been 267, but an elector decided to cast a blank vote to protest D.C.'s lack of representation in the U.S. Congress.
The 2000 election proved controversial. The ballot's final outcome was in limbo for weeks, as the recipient of Florida's 27 electoral votes remained unknown due to problems with outdated voting machines. A series of court injunctions and recounts finally ended in a 537-vote victory for Bush over Gore in the Sunshine State.
2004 Presidential Election
Bush kept current vice-president Dick Cheney in the Republican ticket. On Jul. 6, Kerry chose North Carolina senator John Edwards as his running mate.
Five other candidates were officially registered for the election. Ralph Nader, who received 2.7 per cent of the vote as the Green Party candidate in 2000, ran for office as an independent. On Jun. 26, the Green Party selected Texas attorney David Cobb as its presidential nominee.
On May 30, the Libertarian Party nominated Michael Badnarik as its presidential candidate. Badnarik ran for a seat in the Texas House of Representatives in 2000 and 2002. Michael A. Peroutka will represent the Constitution Party, and Walt Brown is running for the Socialist Party USA.
On Jul. 29, the Democratic Party officially nominated Kerry for president at the national convention, which took place in Boston. In his acceptance speech, Kerry vowed to "make America stronger and respected in the world" and to go to war only "because we have to." The Democratic nominee also pledged to cut the deficit by putting and end to "tax giveaways that are nothing more than corporate welfare" and asked rival Bush to "make this election a contest of big ideas, not small-minded attacks."
In mid-August, the prospective schedule for three rounds of presidential debates featuring Bush and Kerry was released. The first meeting would take place on Sept. 30 at the University of Miami in Florida. The second debate—a town hall meeting with undecided voters asking the questions—was scheduled for Oct. 8 at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri. The third and final meeting between Bush and Kerry would take place on Oct. 13 at Arizona State University. Case Western University in Cleveland, Ohio would host a vice-presidential debate featuring Cheney and Edwards on Oct. 5.
In August, discussions and television advertisements about the military record of the top candidates dominated the campaign. A spot by a Republican-leaning group called "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth" (SBVT) alleged that Kerry exaggerated his actions during the Vietnam War in order to earn medals. Liberal group MoveOn.org—which has ties to the Democratic Party—introduced an ad that questioned whether the current president avoided the Vietnam War through family connections.
On Aug. 20, the Kerry campaign issued a statement, saying a legal complaint had been filed before the Federal Election Commission (FEC) against SBVT "for violating the law with inaccurate ads that are illegally coordinated with the Bush-Cheney presidential campaign." White House spokesman Scott McClellan reiterated that the president was not "involved in any way in these ads."
On Aug. 21, Edwards called on Bush to act, saying voters "have to hear directly that these ads need to come off the air." Kerry dismissed the controversy over his military record as an attack on his credibility. On Aug. 22, former Republican presidential nominee Bob Dole—a World War II veteran—criticized Kerry's statements, and said the Democratic nominee "should apologize to all the other 2.5 million veterans who served. He wasn't the only one in Vietnam."
On Aug. 23, Bush referred to the spots paid by outside groups—sometimes described as 527s for a section of the U.S. tax code—saying "I hope my opponent joins me in condemning these activities of the 527s. (...) I think they're bad for the system. That's why I signed the bill McCain-Feingold." The legislation in question prohibits company-funded ads that identify a federal electoral candidate, and forbids all "soft money" contributions to national political parties from corporations, labour unions and individuals.
Democratic senator Russ Feingold—who co-authored the bill with Republican John McCain—said the legislation "dealt only with political party soft money and phoney issue ads run within 60 days of the general election, not with the so-called 527 groups."
On Sept. 2, the Republican Party officially nominated Bush for president at the national convention, which was held in New York City. In his acceptance speech, Bush promised to "never relent in defending America" and to "confront threats to America before it is too late." In reference to his financial policies, the Republican incumbent said, "Because we acted, our economy is growing again, and creating jobs." Bush criticized Kerry's remarks on the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq, saying, "Allies deserve the respect of all Americans, not the scorn of a politician."
On Sept. 30, Bush and Kerry faced-off for 90 minutes in the first presidential debate, moderated by PBS anchor Jim Lehrer. The meeting focused on foreign policy and homeland security. The president defended his decision to go to war in Iraq, and said Kerry's "core convictions keep changing because of politics in America." The Democratic nominee said Bush made a "colossal error" in launching military action without holding "the kind of statesman-like summits that pull people together and get them to invest in those states." [A transcript of the debate is available at the bottom of this page]
On Oct. 5, Cheney and Edwards participated in a vice-presidential debate, moderated by PBS anchor Gwen Ifill. The vice-president defended the decision to topple Saddam Hussein's regime, saying, "It's important to look at all of our developments in Iraq within the broader context of the global war on terror." Cheney denied he ever directly linked Hussein and al-Qaeda, saying, "I have not suggested there's a connection between Iraq and 9/11, but there's clearly an established Iraqi track record with terror." Edwards said Cheney was "not being straight with the American people" and said Halliburton—a company the vice-president once headed—should not have "gotten a $7.5 billion no-bid contract in Iraq, and instead of part of their money being withheld, which is the way it's normally done, because they're under investigation, they've continued to get their money." [A transcript of the debate is available at the bottom of this page]
In early October, Bush held national leads in surveys conducted by OpinionDynamics/Fox News, ABC News/Washington Post, Zogby International and the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. John Kerry was ahead in studies by Princeton Survey Research Associates/Newsweek and American Research Group. Gallup/CNN/USA Today and CBS/New York Times polls put the race in a dead heat. In the Electoral College, Bush held advantages in 25 states worth 213 electoral votes, with Kerry leading in 13 states and the District of Columbia with 196 electoral votes. In 12 states, 129 electoral votes remained undecided.
On Oct. 8, Bush and Kerry faced-off for almost two hours in the second presidential debate—a town hall-style meeting where undecided voters asked specific questions to each candidate—moderated by ABC anchor Charles Gibson. Kerry dismissed allegations that he is "wishy-washy", saying Bush "didn't find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, so he's turned his campaign into a weapon of mass deception." Bush criticized Kerry's views on the coalition effort, saying, "You tell (British prime minister) Tony Blair we're going it alone. Tell (Italian prime minister) Silvio Berlusconi we're going alone. Tell (president) Aleksander Kwasniewski of Poland we're going alone. There are 30 countries there. It denigrates an alliance to say we're going alone, to discount their sacrifices." [A transcript of the debate is available at the bottom of this page]
On Oct. 13, Bush and Kerry met for the third and final debate on domestic issues, moderated by CBS anchor Bob Schieffer. Bush criticized his rival for sitting "right on the far left bank" of mainstream American politics, and for offering a policy of "retreat and defeat" in Iraq. Kerry said Bush "regrettably rushed us into war" and added that none of the last 11 American heads of state "lost jobs the way this president has." [A transcript of the debate is available at the bottom of this page]
In mid-October, Bush held national leads in surveys conducted by Marist College, Gallup/CNN/USA Today and CBS/New York Times, while polls by SRBI/Time and Ipsos/Associated Press put the race in a tie. In the Electoral College, Bush kept advantages in 25 states worth 213 electoral votes, with Kerry leading in 14 states and the District of Columbia with 203 electoral votes. In 11 states, 122 electoral votes remained undecided.
A week prior to the election, Bush held national leads in surveys conducted by SRBI/Time, Zogby International/Reuters and Gallup/CNN/USA Today, while a poll by Princeton Survey Research Associates/Newsweek put the race in a tie, and studies by Rasmussen Reports and ABC/Washington Post had Kerry in first place. In the Electoral College, Bush kept advantages in 24 states worth 207 electoral votes, with Kerry leading in 13 states and the District of Columbia with 199 electoral votes. In 13 states, 132 electoral votes remained undecided.
On election day, Bush held a slight edge over Kerry in national polls. In the Electoral College, Bush kept advantages in 26 states worth 222 electoral votes, with Kerry leading in 15 states and the District of Columbia with 207 electoral votes. In nine states—Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—109 electoral votes remained undecided. [Results of the final national voting intention polls are available at the bottom of this page]
Voting went on without any major problems on Nov. 2. With 99 per cent of all national precincts reporting, Bush received around 51 per cent of all cast ballots, with Kerry garnering 48 per cent. In the Electoral College, Bush secured 254 electoral votes from 28 states, with Kerry winning 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.
The states of Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio were not immediately projected by most media outlets, or claimed by either camp. In Iowa, Bush held an advantage of 15,652 votes over Kerry with seven electoral votes at stake. In New Mexico, the Republican incumbent led by 14,319 votes over the Democratic nominee with five electoral votes in play. In Ohio, Bush held an advantage of 136,221 votes over Kerry with 20 electoral votes at stake.
On Nov. 3, Bush chief of staff Andrew Card declared, "We are convinced that president Bush has won re-election with at least 286 electoral votes." Kerry campaign chief Mary Beth Cahill said 250,000 votes were yet to be counted in Ohio. Counting of provisional ballots in the Buckeye State was scheduled to begin on Nov. 4, according to orders issued by Ohio state secretary Ken Blackwell.
At 11:30 am Eastern time, media reports indicated that Kerry had called Bush to concede defeat. At 2:00 pm, Kerry addressed Democratic supporters in Boston, saying, "We cannot win this election." Final tallies gave Bush the states of Ohio, Iowa and New Mexico, pushing his total to 286 electoral votes.
On Nov. 4, Bush presented the agenda for his second term, saying, "I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it." The president mentioned topics such as social security, tax reform, economic measures, education and the war on terrorism as key concerns for his administration.
In the legislative ballot, the Republican Party retained control of Congress, electing 232 members to the House of Representatives, and winning 19 of the 34 Senate seats at stake.
On Jan. 5, 2005, the results of the Electoral College were certified during a joint session of Congress. The process was delayed after several Democratic congressmen objected to the counting of Ohio's 20 votes, alleging irregularities. The challenge was defeated in the House of Representatives after a 267 to 31 vote, and in the Senate by a 74 to 1 vote.
Bush was elected with 286 votes, while Kerry finished second with 251. An elector from Minnesota cast a vote for Democratic vice-presidential nominee Edwards in the presidential category.
Bush was sworn in for his second four-year term on Jan. 20. In his inauguration speech, Bush said, "We have known divisions, which must be healed to move forward in great purposes, and I will strive in good faith to heal them."
The president also stated that the country's policy is to "seek and support the growth of democratic movements and institutions in every nation and culture, with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world."
Political Players
President: George W. Bush (R)
Vice-president: Dick Cheney (R)
The president and vice-president are elected in a single ticket to a four-year term by an Electoral College, whose members represent each state of the union with a previously determined number of electoral votes, in accordance with the results of the popular vote in each state.
Legislative Branch: The United States Congress has two chambers. The House of Representatives has 435 members, elected to two-year terms in single-seat constituencies. The Senate has 100 members, elected to six-year terms in dual-seat constituencies, with one-third being renewed every two years.
Results of Last Election:
President - Nov. 2, 2004
Popular | ||
George W. Bush - | 286 | 51.03% |
John Kerry - | 251 (*) | 48.04% |
Ralph Nader - | -- | 0.34% |
Michael Badnarik - | -- | 0.32% |
Michael Peroutka - | -- | 0.11% |
David Cobb - | -- | 0.09% |
Leonard Peltier - | -- | 0.018% |
Walt Brown - | -- | 0.008% |
James Harris - Alternate - | -- | 0.005% |
Roger Calero - | -- | 0.004% |
(*) An elector from Minnesota cast a vote for Democratic vice-presidential nominee John Edwards in the presidential category.
House of Representatives - Nov. 2, 2004
Vote% | Seats | |
Republican Party | 49.2% | 232 |
Democratic Party | 46.6% | 202 |
Independent | 0.6% | 1 |
Libertarian Party | 0.9% | -- |
Green Party | 0.3% | -- |
Independence Party | 0.2% | -- |
Working Families Party | 0.1% | -- |
Constitution Party | 0.1% | -- |
Reform Party | 0.1% | -- |
Other | 1.8% | -- |
Senate - Nov. 2, 2004
(34 seats at stake)
Vote% | Seats | Strength | |
Republican Party | 45.3% | 15 | 55 |
Democratic Party | 50.8% | 19 | 44 |
Independent | 0.2% | -- | 1 |
Libertarian Party | 0.9% | -- | -- |
Constitution Party | 0.3% | -- | -- |
Independence Party | 0.2% | -- | -- |
Green Party | 0.2% | -- | -- |
Other | 2.0% | -- | -- |
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