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Guatemala
At stake: President, Congress of the Republic
Background
Guatemala, one of the poorest countries in Latin America, was the scene of a brutal 36-year-long civil war that left more than 200,000 people dead and 100,000 disappeared. Currently, indigenous peoples make up 44 per cent of Guatemala's population.
In 1954, the United States directly helped topple the social-democratic government of Jacobo Arbenz Guzmán and helped military strongman Carlos Castillo Armas take over as head of state. U.S. governments would intervene in Guatemala's internal affairs for years.
In the 1960s, Guatemalans were trained to fight against Cuban leader
Fidel Castro. As a response to the repressive military regime,
dissident army officials and students created a guerrilla movement. The
country spiralled into a civil war which involved the military,
left-wing guerrillas and right-wing radicals. Indigenous Maya became a
specific target of the military forces and took the biggest death toll
in the conflict.
Fighting ended in 1996 with a peace agreement signed in December by
Guatemalan president Álvaro Arzú Irigoyen. The war became the longest
in Latin American history.
In 1999, a domestic truth commission blamed the army for 93 per cent of the atrocities and the rebels, known as the Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unit (URNG), for 3 per cent. As part of a national reconciliation effort, the former guerrilla members apologized for their actions. Unites States president Bill Clinton also apologized on behalf of his country for supporting the right-wing militias. The Guatemalan army, however, has never acknowledged any excesses during the war.
In January 2000, Alfonso Portillo took over as president. Portillo, an aid to former dictator Efraín Ríos Montt, publicly apologized on behalf of former governments for human rights abuses and put in place a series of mechanisms to compensate the victims and prosecute the main perpetrators of abuses. In June, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Mexico signed a free trade agreement.
In 2003, Óscar Berger of the Grand National Alliance (GANA)—who had lost to Portillo in the 1999 election—defeated Álvaro Colom of the National Union of Hope (UNE) in a presidential run-off. The key issues in the campaign were the economy, crime, corruption and human rights abuses.
Click here for 2003 Guatemala Election Tracker
In 2005, Guatemala ratified the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) with the United States.
Crime and violence are still a major preoccupation for Guatemalans. In 2004, over 2,000 people were murdered. The killings were mostly attributed to an international network of youth gangs known as the Maras. The Maras have become a major problem for Guatemala and other Central American countries. At the same time, police has been unable to stop the apparently-targeted killing of women. By the end of 2006, police estimated that about 2,000 women had been killed in Guatemala since 2001. Human rights activists are also a frequent target.
2007 Presidential Election
Guatemala's presidential election is scheduled for Sept. 9. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on Nov. 4.
Centre-leftist Álvaro Colom of the National Union of Hope (UNE) has consistently topped voting intention surveys conducted in late 2006 and early 2007. Other contenders include Otto Pérez Molina of the right-wing Patriot Party (PP), Fritz García Gallont of the Unionist Party (UP) and evangelical pastor Harold Caballeros.
On Jan. 4, Alejandro Giammattei—the director of Guatemala's prison system—was announced as the presidential nominee for the governing Grand National Alliance (GANA). Giammatei vowed to enact tougher regulations to deal with crime, declaring, "Guatemala is caught in a battle between the good and the bad, and we need to generate leadership to ensure that the good people participate because there are more of us."
In February, renowned indigenous-rights activist Rigoberta Menchú, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate and a Maya herself, announced she would contest the ballot.
Efraín Ríos Montt—who might be tried in a Spanish tribunal for crimes against humanity due to a petition made by Menchú—has declined his presidential candidacy but will run for Congress with his Republican Guatemalan Front (FRG).
On Feb. 12, Colom questioned Pérez Molina's "tough-on-crime" stance, claiming that "a fist can never become an open hand." The UNE candidate also pledged to be a "sensitive" head of state.
On Feb. 28, Pérez Molina—a former military intelligence chief—accused Guatemalan interior minister Carlos Vielmann of failing to deal with unlawful armed groups, declaring, "We have information that there are two groups operating illegally within state institutions, and there is clear evidence these groups are connected to the highest authorities."
In late March, Menchú reiterated that she would revise the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) if she becomes president, saying, "We would like to enrich the treaty and see if it is useful to us. If it is not, then it is not."
In April, Colom announced that cardiologist Rafael Espada would be his running mate. Espada defended his decision to join the race, saying, "Colom is a very sincere man. There is no connection with drug traffickers, no money from (Venezuelan president Hugo) Chávez, and his wife does not mistreat him. Everything that was said about Colom was a lie."
On Apr. 27, Giammattei said he is not worried about the early numbers—which place him in third place behind Colom and Pérez Molina—saying, "We are going to increase out tours and appearances to gain more supporters. Our structure is well-organized."
On May 14, Colom criticized his rivals, saying, "There are certain candidates offering safety and a hard stand on crime. They forget that guaranteeing the safety of citizens is a constitutional obligation."
On May 27, Colom declared during a campaign event that his victory is certain, saying, "Today we are far ahead of the others and they will not be able to catch up. There are 106 days of work left, and this time Colom is getting the presidency."
Also on May 27, Pérez Molina discussed the possibility of calling for a Constituent Assembly if elected, saying, "I believe the time has come to re-found the state in Guatemala. We have seen it is a state that has allowed for injustice and inequality. The parties will have a major responsibility in proposing members for the Assembly. I think there will be an interest in having every party putting forward proposals and experts."
In June, Costa Rican president Óscar Arias established diplomatic relations with China, effectively ending his country's 60-year relationship with Taiwan. Berger traveled to Taiwan in mid-June to strengthen bilateral ties, and secured up to $50 million U.S. in aid to build roads and other infrastructure in the country. Taiwanese president Chen Shui-bian declared after Berger's visit: "Guatemala is a true friend because it supports us in difficult times."
On Jun. 12, Pérez Molina said he would declare a state of emergency in certain areas of the country if elected to the presidency in order to restore the rule of law. The PP candidate told an audience of businessmen: "We have identified 'red zones' where it is necessary to apply the state of siege and we will have a firm hand to do so because security will come first and you will see the results."
On Jun. 29, Giammattei criticized Colom—who had referred to most of his rivals in the race as "stupid"—saying, "Colom said we were stupid, but he is stupider because he does not know what he is talking about. (...) Most people in the country are becoming aware that they do not want a president who fights with everyone. I promise security and jobs."
In early July, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) announced that Vision with Values (VIVA) would not take part in the democratic process, due to a discrepancy over the timing of its candidate-selection process. VIVA presidential candidate Harold Caballeros filed two unsuccessful appeals to the TSE's decision.
On Jul. 9, Roberto Sifón-Arévalo, an analyst with the credit-rating
company Standard & Poor's, commented on Guatemala's upgraded
long-term ratings, and said Berger's government has provided sound
economic policies that future presidents might retain. Sifón-Arévalo
added: "Since taking office in 2004, the administration of Óscar Berger
reduced the size of the armed forces by half, strengthened the tax
administration agency, and boosted the independence of the Central
Bank, the bank superintendence, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, the
Supreme Court, and the Constitutional Court. Moreover, the
administration has implemented a free-trade agreement with the United
States, raising prospects for investment and growth."
In mid-July, José Carlos Marroquín, the spokesman for Colom, talked to
reporters about the possible infiltration of drug lords in different
parties ahead of the general election, and said UNE has made efforts to
fire members with purported ties to organized crime. Marroquín also
said his two cars were bombed and riddled with bullets in front of his
house in Guatemala City last year, adding, "I'm scared. It's going to
be a very bloody election."
On Jul. 20, Pérez Molina, a retired army general and former spy chief, said he would increase the number of soldiers in Guatemala's streets in order to improve public safety. The PP candidate declared: "Until we can get out of this security crisis and strengthen the police, we have to use the army."
In July, the three main presidential contenders expressed
dissatisfaction with the way the country is dealing with drug
trafficking, after a report issued by the United States Drug
Enforcement Administration (DEA) stated that 80 per cent of the cocaine
destined for the U.S. passes through Guatemala. Colom declared: "I have
seen caravans with an army of drug dealers—we are Colombia already."
Polls conducted in July by Vox Latina, Demoscopía and Borge y Asociados placed Colom in first place, followed by Pérez Molina. Still, a high number of respondents remained undecided.
In early August, José Dávila, the head of the Central American Institute of Political Studies (INCEP), revealed that since the electoral campaign officially began on May 2, at least 38 people have been killed in Guatemala, including activists, candidates and political leaders. INCEP is part of Election Watch 2007, a coalition of five non-governmental organizations monitoring the campaign.
On Aug. 15, Authentic Integral Development (DIA) presidential candidate Héctor Rosales said members of a rival party attacked his convoy during a campaign event, adding "The men wore FRG caps, jackets and T-shirts."
On Aug. 22, UNE denounced the assassination of Marta Cristina Montenegro, the 14-year-old daughter of a candidate to the country's legislature, Héctor Montenegro. The UNE contender said the killing could be related to his political activities, adding, "I don't have any proof. But I believe it".
Also this month, José Méndez, the son of Amílcar Méndez—an assistant to UNE's vice-presidential candidate Rafael Espada—was shot dead. At least 15 members of Colom's party have been killed during the campaign.
On Aug. 23, former dictator Ríos Montt dismissed the FRG’s poor showing in surveys, declaring, "Polls are the clumsiest things. The owners of media outlets don’t want us to win the election because that would damage their economic interests. The people already know the difference between a serious party and a populist party. They also know that during the FRG’s tenure, there was price stability and this is why they prefer us."
On Aug. 28, the top five candidates participated in a televised debate, where crime and immigration were featured as the main electoral issues. Colom talked about the country’s high crime rate, saying, "Crime is not just about prosecution; it’s not just about justice. Crime also has its origins in Guatemala’s deep social problems—poverty, marginalization, discrimination, neglect. Our comprehensive program has a component that is about security, but the counterweight to it is the human solidarity program." Pérez Molina pledged to reinstate the death penalty in order to deter criminal activity.
On Sept. 4, Pérez Molina discussed the current state of affairs, saying, "The other candidate (Colom) has already said that he let me grew. This is a desperate measure provoked by our success, and we will not fall into a campaign of disrepute."
On Sept. 6, Colom challenged Pérez Molina to a one-on-one debate, saying, "I would like to discuss security in a deeper way." Pérez Molina said he would agree to the meeting "after the first round."
On Sept. 7, Organization of American States (OEA) electoral observer Diego García-Sayán called on the current Guatemalan government to investigate the killings, saying, "Each of these events must be probed in order to substantiate or dismiss any political motives."
Surveys published in early September by Demoscopía and Vox Latina suggested a run-off between Colom and Pérez Molina would be required.
Voting took place on Sept. 9. Final results placed Álvaro Colom of the National Union of Hope (UNE) in first place with 28.23 per cent of the vote, followed by Otto Pérez Molina of the right-wing Patriot Party (PP) with 23.51 per cent. Since no contender was able to garner more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on Nov. 4. Turnout was tabled at 60.5 per cent.
In the legislative ballot, UNE secured 48 seats, followed by GANA with 37 mandates, and the PP with 30 seats.
A late September poll by Vox Latina gave Pérez Molina an 8.8 per cent lead over Colom in the run-off. On Sept. 29, Pérez Molina expressed satisfaction with the numbers, saying, “We believe that after the first round, there was a shift in our favour. We hope this trend continues until election day.” Colom declared: “I don’t want to fight. I’m going to see my own poll and if it looks just like this one, there’s no problem. If it is different, we’re going to have trouble.”
On Oct. 6, Colom criticized Pérez Molina’s approach to security,
saying, “He’s always talking about the tough hand, but that’s not what
the country needs. The tough hand will bring more poverty, more
gunshots, more destruction, and this is not what the country needs.”
On Oct. 8, Aura Salazar, who worked in the congressional office of
Pérez Molina’s PP, was shot dead in Guatemala City just blocks away
from the Congress building. A presidential security guard traveling in
her car was also killed. Pérez Molina rushed to the crime scene, where
he declared: “This is a political attack against someone who worked
very closely with me. (…) Just this weekend, I declared organized
criminals and drug traffickers were financing the opposition. Now we
are rising in the polls those backers see their interests threatened.”
On Oct. 10, Iván Cruz—the head of Guatemala’s National Statistics
Institute (INE)—revealed that 51 per cent of the population lives under
the poverty line, and 15.2 per cent lives in conditions of extreme
poverty. According to the findings of the INE study, 72 per cent of the
country’s poor live in rural areas, and 52 per cent of poor Guatemalans
are of indigenous descent.
On Oct. 11, Colom strategist José Carlos Marroquín quit the campaign after receiving death threats. Marroquín declared: "No party can guarantee that it is 100 per cent free of influence from organized crime. (Criminals) have many tentacles, and can get into politics through a mayor, a legislator or a financier."
On Oct. 29, Colom claimed that Pérez Molina’s actions favoured drug
traffickers when he worked as head of Guatemala’s military intelligence
operations. Colom said his rival knowingly dismantled some army bases
leaving large territories unattended so drug dealers could use the
routes, adding, “(He) deprived the army in favour of organized crime
and created safe passages where elephants full of cocaine pass by and
nobody sees them.”
On Oct. 31, Menchú—who finished seventh in the first round with 3.09
per cent of the vote—denounced the electoral process, saying, “The
election cannot be legitimate, because there are not just doubts, but
proof (of fraud). (...) It is incredible, but there are places in which
the number of names in the electoral roll is larger than the total
population.”
On Nov. 2, as both candidates closed their campaigns, Guatemalan
vice-president Eduardo Stein expressed concern over possible violence
following Sunday’s election, saying, “What worries us is what comes
after the ballot boxes are opened. What will happen if the results are
too close and a high number of people contest them? We have to be
prepared to keep things in order in case someone wants to disrupt our
peace.”
Voting took place on Nov. 4. Pérez Molina declared after casting his ballot: "Starting tomorrow, we will be building the Guatemala that we all want, without colours and differences among political parties." Colom said: "We are choosing our destiny. (...) While we are at peace, we face a war against crime."
Final results gave Colom 52.82 per cent of the vote, followed by Pérez Molina with 47.18 per cent. Colom expressed satisfaction on election night, declaring, “The change that our country waited for during 50 years begins today. Guatemala is a magical country, one that deserves a different destiny, so that equality, solidarity and social justice reign forever.”
Colom was sworn in on Jan. 14, 2008. His cabinet features Vinicio
Gómez as interior minister, Juan Alberto Fuentes as finance ministes,
Haroldo Rodas as foreign minister, and Marco Tulio García Franco as
defence minister.
Political Players
President: Álvaro Colom - UNE
Vice-president: Rafael Espada - UNE
The president and the vice-president are elected—in the same ticket—to a four-year term by popular vote.
Legislative Branch: The Congreso de la República
(Congress of the Republic) has 158 members, elected to four-year terms,
127 members in single-seat constituencies and 31 by proportional
representation.
Results of Last Election:
President - Sept. 9 and Nov. 4, 2007
|
Sept. 9 |
Nov. 4 |
|
|
Álvaro Colom - National Union of Hope (UNE) |
28.23% |
52.82% |
|
Otto Pérez Molina - Patriot Party (PP) |
23.51% |
47.18% |
|
Alejandro Giammattei - Grand National Alliance (GANA) |
17.23% |
-- |
|
Eduardo Suger - Centre for Social Action (CAS) |
7.45% |
-- |
|
Luis Rabbé - Republican Guatemalan Front (FRG) |
7.29% |
-- |
|
Mario Estrada - Union for Nationalist Change (UCN) |
3.16% |
-- |
|
Rigoberta Menchú - Encounter for Guatemala (EG) |
3.09% |
-- |
|
Fritz García-Gallont - Unionist Party (PU) |
2.92% |
-- |
|
Óscar Castañeda - National Advancement Party (PAN) |
2.56% |
-- |
|
Miguel Ángel Sandoval - Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unity (URNG) |
2.14% |
-- |
|
Manuel Conde Orellana - Democratic Union (UD) |
0.76% |
-- |
|
Pablo Monsanto - New Nation Alliance (ANN) |
0.59% |
-- |
|
Héctor Rosales - Authentic Integral Development (DIA) |
0.57% |
-- |
|
Vinicio Cerezo Blandón - Guatemalan Christian Democracy (DCG) |
0.50% |
-- |
Congress of the Republic - Sept. 9, 2007
|
Vote% |
Seats |
|
|
National Union of Hope (UNE) |
22.81% |
48 |
|
Grand National Alliance (GANA) |
16.51% |
37 |
|
Patriotic Party (PP) |
15.91% |
30 |
|
Republican Guatemalan Front (FRG) |
9.80% |
15 |
|
Encounter for Guatemala (EG) |
6.17% |
4 |
|
Unionist Party (PU) |
6.10% |
8 |
|
Centre for Social Action (CAS) |
4.89% |
5 |
|
National Advancement Party (PAN) |
4.58% |
4 |
|
Union for Nationalist Change (UCN) |
4.06% |
4 |
|
Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unity (URNG) |
3.27% |
2 |
|
Authentic Integral Development (DIA) |
1.43% |
-- |
|
Democratic Union (UD) |
1.41% |
1 |
|
New Nation Alliance (ANN) |
1.35% |
-- |
|
Front for Democracy (EL FRENTE) |
0.91% |
-- |
|
Guatemalan Christian Democracy (DCG) |
0.83% |
-- |