Election Date: December 27, 2007

Abstract: At stake: President, National Assembly

At stake: President, National Assembly

Background

More than 40 ethnic groups reside in Kenya. Its largest component is the Kikuyu, who migrated to the region at the beginning of the 18th century. Kenya shares borders with Tanzania, Uganda, Somalia, Sudan and Ethiopia.

On Dec. 12, 1963, Kenya achieved independence from Britain. In 1964, the country became a republic under Jomo Kenyatta, a nationalist leader who had been jailed by the British, as its first president.

The Kenya African National Union (KANU), Kenyatta's party, governed the country without allowing any opposition from 1964 to 1992. Kenyatta died in 1978 and was succeeded by Daniel arap Moi.

In 1992, increasing pressure forced Moi to allow for multi-party elections. The 1992 and 1997 democratic processes were surrounded by violence and accusations of fraud. KANU was victorious both times.

Kenya's economy grew considerably strong during the first years of independence but then spiraled into disintegration amidst rampant corruption. Infrastructure was left unattended and Kenya lost key international aid partners and money lenders such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank during the 1990s because of government mismanagement of funds. In the meantime, ethnic strife, particularly between the Kikuyu and the Luo, affected Kenya's peace and stability.

By 1995, Kenya's political system was still at odds with democracy. Moi ordered the arrest of anyone who insulted him and the opposition was kept in the dark of the political arena. In 1997 and 1998, Kenyans suffered from severe flooding and epidemics of malaria and cholera that overwhelmed the ineffectual health care system.

On Aug. 7, 1998, the United States embassy in Nairobi, Kenya's capital city, was bombed. More than 240 people died and more than 1,000 were injured. The embassy in neighbouring Tanzania was also attacked on the same day. The bombings were attributed to the al-Qaeda network.

Every year, more than 3.5 million Kenyans face the threat of starvation due to droughts. HIV and AIDS are a major problem in the country. It is estimated that more than 1.2 million Kenyans are infected with the virus, and the country's life expectancy is 49 years.

Moi was not allowed to run again for president in the 2002 election. KANU's candidate was Uhuru Kenyatta, who lost the election to Mwai Kibaki of the opposition National Rainbow Coalition (NARC).

Kibaki attracted international aid and foreign donors with his anti-corruption reforms, but was later accused of not doing enough. In 2005, Kenyan anti-corruption minister John Githongo resigned claiming he was frustrated because the government compelled him to cease investigations into several scandals. Kenya is regularly ranked among the ten most corrupt countries in the world, according to Transparency International.

Kibaki also promised a new Constitution that would limit presidential powers which has not been drafted to this date. In July 2005, the National Assembly approved a draft for a new Constitution. In December, 58.12 per cent of Kenyan voters rejected the document in a referendum.

In the ballot, the "Yes" vote was represented by a banana and the "No" option by an orange. KANU and government defectors who disapproved of and campaigned against the government's proposed constitution founded a new party following the vote, called the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). After the plebiscite failed, Kibaki sacked his entire cabinet.

Throughout 2006, the ODM and KANU called for demonstrations asking the president to schedule an early election. Kibaki fell under criticism for including only a few members of the opposition in his new cabinet.

2007 President and National Assembly Elections

Kenya's president is both head of state and head of the government. Legislative power is vested both in the president and the National Assembly.

A poll conducted by Steadman Research Services in December 2006 placed incumbent Mwai Kibaki of the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) as the frontrunner with 42 per cent, followed by former environment minister Kalonzo Musyoka of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with 20 per cent, former roads and public works minister Raila Odinga with 14 per cent, Uhuru Kenyatta of the Kenya African National Union (KANU) with five per cent, and KANU secretary-general William Ruto with three per cent.

On Jan. 11, Kibaki appointed nine members to the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK). Although the current Constitution allows the president to single-handedly appoint these posts, the opposition claims the nominations might favour his re-election bid.

On Jan. 23, former anti-corruption minister John Githongo posted an audio tape on the Internet incriminating top government officials in a cover-up for a millionaire financial scandal known as Anglo Leasing. In the tape, former finance minister David Mwiraria urges Githongo to end his probe on the case. Githongo had previously presented the tape before Kenya's Anti-Corruption Commission, but it had been rejected as evidence for being "unintelligible".

On that same date, some members of the National Assembly created a new commission that will put pressure on the government to approve certain constitutional reforms. Under the "No reforms, no elections" slogan, the group requested that the Assembly resume duties in mid-February instead of mid-March; supported Githongo's inquiry into the Anglo Leasing scandal, and urged the president to reconsider his appointments for the ECK.

In early April, Orange Democratic Movement (ODM-Kenya) officials and supporters stormed the ECK offices demanding the registration of the party's orange symbol, which is at the centre of an ownership row. The ECK finally approved the symbol, which the party required in order to participate in by-elections.

Also in April, NARC Kenya established a branch in the United States in a bid to advertise the party ahead of the general election. Three government ministers opened the party's chapter in Oakland, California. Mutahi Kagwe, Morris Dzoro and Peter Munya urged Kenyan residents in the U.S. to support Kibaki's re-election telling them to "appreciate what the Kibaki administration has done for them".

On Jul. 12, Odinga expressed concerns about the democratic process, declaring, "I fear the signs are not very encouraging for free and fair elections. The government plans to increase the number of constituencies in their areas because they fear they may win the presidency and lose the parliamentary elections. The government may use some unorthodox means to try to rig itself back into power.

Government spokesman Alfred Mutua dismissed Odinga's comments, adding, "This government is not interested in stealing elections. The 30 new constituencies are long overdue. They have been in the planning for the past 10 years. It's parliament that is pushing for the introduction of these new constituencies."

On Jul. 12, Kibaki responded to a proposal to push back the presidential and National Assembly elections until February 2008, saying, "That is out of the question. The elections will be held in December. Period. (...) These people need to stop asking for more time. In any case, if we were to change the date, we would bring it forward because there are many important things we would like to see happen in December."

On Aug. 2, health minister Charity Ngilu was arrested for allegedly assisting an activist escape from the Central Police Station. On Aug. 4, Ngilu was released without charges and blamed Kibaki for her plight, declaring, "I want to know from who (the police) are taking the powerful orders; to me there is only one 'above' and that is the president."

On Aug. 8, the National Council of Churches of Kenya (NCCK) released a statement against a controversial measure approved by lawmakers regarding press rights, which read: "It is wrong for MPs to have passed the bill in the first place, and we as church leaders ask Kibaki not to sign the bill into law." The NCCK was referring to a proposal that would make it mandatory for journalists to reveal their sources when asked.

Polycarp Ochilo, director of the Anti-Corruption Campaign Steering Committee, also urged the president not to sign the bill, saying, "It is incumbent to maintain the ethical journalism so far attained by the Kenyan media; it is in our interest that the media be left alone to tackle corruption provided they observe law and be responsible."

On Aug. 15, former cabinet minister Najib Balala confirmed a split between Odinga and Musyoka, saying, "There has been a fallout. Kalonzo has become a lone ranger." The rift makes the possibility of a unified opposition candidacy less likely, and boosts the chances of incumbent Kibaki.

On Sept. 1, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) chose Odinga as its presidential candidate after an internal ballot. Odinga defeated four rivals—Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto, Joseph Nyaga and Najib Balala—by a large margin. After earning the ODM nod, Odinga declared: “The coming election will be a fight between the forces for the retention of the status quo and the forces for change.”

On Sept. 16, Kibaki announced the foundation of the Party of National Unity (PNU) and said he would run as its candidate. The PNU is a coalition of several parties, including KANU, NARC-Kenya, the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy-Kenya (Ford-Kenya), the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy-People (Ford-People), and the Democratic Party (DP).

On Sept. 28, Kibaki discussed his views on the upcoming democratic process, saying, “The election is near, if you look keenly; even you can guess.”

A late September poll by Steadman Research Services placed Odinga as the new frontrunner with 47 per cent.

On Oct. 11, cabinet minister John Koech left the governing NARC and joined the ODM. Koech—who has refused to abandon his ministerial duties—announced his decision, asserting that “the entire government is in the opposition.”

Three polls conducted in late September suggested a victory for Odinga.

On Oct. 15, special programmes minister John Munyes dismissed Odinga’s standing in voting intention surveys, declaring, “We are going to show our rivals dust and surprise many who think Kibaki will lose to Raila in the polls.” Munyes promised a period of aggressive campaigning before the presidential election.

On Oct. 27, the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) set the date for the legislative and presidential elections for Dec. 27. ECK chairman Samuel Kivuitu urged political leaders to reach agreements in order to reduce the number of parties in the ballot—after 147 different organizations were registered—saying, “The only difference between political parties is personalities, but if they are truly responsible leaders, they should reconcile and form alliances. (...) There are so many registered political parties that if they all field candidates, the ballot paper will be too complex for ordinary voters to comprehend.”

On Nov. 4, Odinga accused Kibaki of manipulating the democratic process by appointing friends to the ECK and hand-picking electoral observers, adding, “If Kibaki tries to rig this poll, he will face opposition he has never seen in his life.”

On Nov. 12, Odinga vowed to draft a new constitution that would give more power to regional governments. Following criticism from opponents who said Odinga intends to introduce “majimbo”—a confederate system of governance—the candidate said: “They are misleading Kenyans to start thinking that we want to balkanize the country. Ours is to take decision-making powers and resources to lower levels to bring about equitable distribution of resources.”

On Nov. 15, Odinga condemned what he called Kibaki’s “weak efforts” to root out corruption, saying, “Mr. Kibaki’s record on the fight against corruption is abysmal. He has come from promising zero tolerance in 2002 to total acceptance within days of taking office. (...) But despite the failed promises, the president has once again pledged, according to his manifesto, that he will personally lead the war against corruption and the recovery of stolen assets. These are all blatant lies.”

On Nov. 23, police commissioner Hussein Ali expressed concern over possible electoral violence, as he referred to the finding of weapons such as clubs, machetes, bows and arrows, in a government car assigned to assistant minister Raphael Wanjala.

Ali urged candidates to refrain from instigating violence, saying, “I wish to caution politicians and their supporters against attempting to prevent their competitors from presenting their nomination papers by engaging in hooliganism or even abducting their opponents. (…) These are very serious offences, some of which attract capital punishment. Anyone who incites violence or targets other candidates must be prepared to face the full might of the law.”

On Dec. 4, Shriti Vadera, the British parliamentary under-secretary of state at the Department for International Development, told Britain’s legislators to expect little change stemming from Kenya’s upcoming election, saying, "Ethnicity and patronage are still important determinants of the outcome of elections and a career in politics is still one of the quickest ways of accumulating wealth. The incumbents and the opposition are mostly cut from the same cloth."

On Dec. 9, Kenyan justice minister Martha Karua responded to Vadera’s pre-electoral report, urging British lawmakers to concentrate on their own "grand corruption scandals and other rot," and adding, "They are our friends but we want to remind them we are not their colony nor do we depend on them for survival."

On Dec. 25, Kibaki urged voters to support him, saying “I am sure of a good win. I am asking all of you to vote for us. Those others have done nothing. They had a chance to work, but they did not. I am ready to continue with the work we have started. (...) We shall amend the law to stop corrupt people from joining politics. It is unfortunate that people steal from the public and run to politics.”

Odinga also expressed confidence in a victory, declaring, “ODM supporters should not fear but turn out in large numbers and vote. There will be enough security. (...) I will not sit and watch corruption continue ruining the country. For every shilling the poor earns, the rich gets 66. This government has been playing politics with poverty.”

The last three polls published before the election suggested a very tight contest, with no clear frontrunner. 

Voting took place on Dec. 27. An early exit poll by the Institute for Education in Democracy (IED) suggested a victory for Kibaki with 51.3 per cent of the vote, with Odinga coming in a distant second with 39.6 per cent. Odinga aide Salim Lone dismissed the results, saying, “People, especially in rural areas, are not keen to say how they have voted because they fear the power of the state.”

On Dec. 30, the CEC declared Kibaki as the winner, defeating Odinga by roughly 220,000 votes. Kibaki was sworn in for a new term on that same day. Odinga’s camp complained about irregularities in the ballot count, claiming that Kibaki’s total was inflated by 300,000 votes.

On Jan. 2, 2008, both sides accused each other of committing heinous acts. The government alleged that the ODM had “planned, financed and rehearsed (...) well-organized acts of genocide and ethnic cleansing.” The opposition party claimed the Kibaki administration’s actions—such as firing on protesters—“bordered on genocide.” More than 300 people have died in post-election clashes between rival factions.

On Jan. 5, government spokesman Alfred Mutua appeared to suggest the formation of a national unity government, saying, “We do want a strong opposition, otherwise we would have a one party state.” Following the announcement, Odinga declared: “My position has not changed. We want a negotiated settlement. Our starting point is that Kibaki is there illegally. He should not come to the negotiating table as the president.”

By late Febuary, post-election violence in Kenya had claimed more than 1,000 lives. On Feb. 28—following the mediation by former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan—Kibaki and Odinga reached a preliminary power-sharing deal. The terms entail the creation of the post of prime minister, who will “coordinate and supervise” government affairs. Kenya will have two deputy prime ministers, one nominated by each member of the coalition.

Political Players

President: Mwai Kibaki - NARC
Vice-president: Moody Awori - NARC

The president is elected to a five-year term by popular vote.

Legislative Branch: The National Assembly of Kenya has 224 members; 210 members are elected in single-seat constituencies, 12 members are appointed, and two seats are reserved for the speaker and the attorney-general.

Results of Last Election:

President - Dec. 27, 2007

	Vote%
Mwai Kibaki - Party of National Unity (PNU)	46.64%
Raila Odinga - Orange Democratic Movement (ODM)	44.28%
Kalonzo Musyoka - Orange Democratic Movement - Kenya (ODM-Kenya)	8.95%
Joseph Karani - Kenya Patriotic Trust Party (KPTP)	0.04%
Pius Mwangi - Kenya People’s Party (KPP)	0.02%
Kenneth Matiba - Saba Saba Asili (SSA)	0.01%
Nazlin Rajput - Workers’ Congress Party of Kenya (WCPK)	0.01%
David Ngethe - Chama Cha Umma Party (CCUP)	0.01%
Nixon Kukubo - Republican Party of Kenya (RPK)	0.01%

National Assembly - Dec. 27, 2007

	Seats
Orange Democratic Movement (ODM)	100
Party of National Unity (PNU)	37
Orange Democratic Movement - Kenya (ODM-Kenya)	16
Kenya African National Union (KANU)	11
Safina (Ark)	5
National Rainbow Coalition (NARC)
National Rainbow Coalition - Kenya (NARC-K)	3
Forum for the Restoration of Democracy-People (FRD-P)	3
Democratic Party (DP)	2
Sisi Kwa Sisi (SKS)	2
Mazingira Green Party of Kenya (MGPK)	1
People’s Democratic Party (PDP)	1
People’s Party of Kenya (PPK)	1
National Labout Party (NLP)	1
Kenya African Democratic Development Union (KADDU)	1
United Democratic Movement (UDM)	1
Party of Independent Candidates of Kenya (PICK)	1
Chama Cha Umma Party (CCUP)	1
Kenya National Democratic Alliance (Kenda)	1
Not yet decided	17

Archive Search

Search the Angus Reid Global Monitor Election Tracker archive.

Advanced Search