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Election Date: July 22, 2007

At stake: Great National Assembly

Background

The republic of Turkey was founded in 1923. Mustafa Kemal, a national hero who was granted the name of Kemal Ataturk, or "Father of the Turks", was the first president. Under his command, Turkey engaged in a profound transformation towards modernity, secularism and industrialization, leaving behind the previous political structures of caliphates and sultanates inherited from the Ottoman Empire, of which Turkey was the center.

Islamic dominance started to fade away under Ataturk's authoritarian rule. In 1950, the country hosted multiparty elections for the first time. Turkey joined the United Nations (UN) in 1945 and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1952. It also became an associate member of the European Common Market in 1963.

The military hold a great deal of power in Turkey, having either staged or supported several coups d'états since the 1960s, which have all ultimately ended with the return of democratic rule.

In 1965, Suleyman Demirel became prime minister for the first times. He would go on to serve for seven mandates. In the 1970s, Turkey engaged in a conflict with Greece that has had numerous repercussions to this date. On Jul. 20, 1974, the Turkish army invaded Cyprus. At the time, relations between Greek and Turkish Cypriots were strained, and Turkey acted upon the assumption that Greece would take over the island.

On Aug. 16, Turkey declared a unilateral cease-fire. Having gained control over about two thirds of the island, Turkish Cypriots founded the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus—a "nation" that only Turkey recognizes—on Feb. 13, 1975.

In November 1982, 91.5 per cent of voters approved a new constitution in a referendum and effectively ended military rule, which had taken over the government two years before. The legislature became unicameral and the figure of president as head of state was introduced. The prime minister remained as head of government.

In 1984, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a separatist armed group, launched a violent campaign in southeastern Turkey. Kurds account for roughly 20 per cent of Turkey's population, and most of them feel marginalized and abused by the Turkish majority.

The PKK evolved into the People's Congress of Kurdistan (KGK) and remained the most important issue in the country until its leader, Abdullah Ocalan, was arrested in 1999 and later sentenced to death for treason. Over 30,000 people have died in confrontations between the separatists and the Turkish army. The conflict is still active, after a unilateral ceasefire ended in 2004.

In 1990, during the Persian Gulf War, the United States-led coalition launched a series of air strikes into Iraq from Turkish bases. In 2003, the Great National Assembly denied the U.S. permission to launch its invasion of Iraq from Turkish soil, despite the fact that the government had negotiated a billionaire aid package in exchange for it. U.S.-Turkey relations became tense as a result of the incident.

In August, more than 17,000 people died and another 200,000 were left homeless after an earthquake hit Turkey. Greece sent help for the victims and relations improved slightly between the two countries.

Over the past decade, Turkey has introduced a series of political and legislative reforms in order to support its bid to join the European Union (EU). In 2003, parliament passed a law reducing the military's power over civil life and politics. It also abolished the death penalty, except for "exceptional cases", and granted partial amnesty to some former PKK members.

Turkey's grim human rights record and its strained relations with Cyprus remain the most sensitive topics affecting the country's accession to the EU. The fact that Turkey is an Islamic nation is also politically sensitive. Talks between Turkey and the continental group began officially in October 2005.

From 2000 to 2002, Turkey underwent major economic recession. More than a million jobs were lost during this period.

In November 2002, a relatively new Islamic conservative party created by former members of banned Islamist parties, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), won the majority of seats in parliament. Its leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, could not become prime minister because he had been previously convicted of "inciting religious hatred" for reciting an Islamic poem at a rally in 1998. The AKP's Abdullah Gul served as prime minister until a legal amendment allowed Erdogan to take the post. Gul later became Turkey's foreign minister.

The Republican People's Party (CHP), Turkey's oldest political party, was elected as the second force in parliament in 2002. The CHP advocates for secularism and is considered as social-democratic.

On Nov. 17, 2003, two bombs exploded close to two different synagogues in Istanbul, Turkey's largest city. On Nov. 22, the British Consulate and a British Bank were also hit. The attacks, attributed to al-Qaeda, killed more than 50 people and left hundreds wounded.

2007 Great National Assembly Election

The next general election is tentatively scheduled for Nov. 4. In May, lawmakers will also choose a new president to serve for the next seven years, in accordance with the constitution. Current head of state Ahmet Necdet Sezer is ineligible for re-election. The president is commander of the armed forces, and has the power to block legislation.

Current prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is said to be considering a presidential bid, a fact that would force the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) to seek a new leader. Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baycal and secularist circles oppose Erdogan's potential candidacy, and have called for the parliamentary election to be held before the presidential contest.

The Great National Assembly's 550 seats are elected by proportional representation with a 10 per cent threshold—one of the highest in the world—although independent candidates can earn a seat as well. Political parties deemed anti-secular or separatist by the judiciary can be banned.

On Jan. 9, Erdogan said the electoral calendar would not be altered, declaring, "Creating a fictitious agenda to derail the country and channel Turkey's energy into other places is a great mistake. There are people trying to force certain issues. But this country has its Constitution and laws. The election is being held on time."

On Feb. 10, Erdogan celebrated the signing of a series of cooperation deals between Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan, saying, "Three countries have gathered here and we should demonstrate the world the way of regional cooperation. Now we are establishing a firm basis for it. We should consolidate the cooperation and this is the model for peaceable development."

On Mar. 2, Erdogan ruled out an early ballot, saying, "Our government wants to prove that Turkey can be governed for a full five-year term. The election campaign will start in July."

In March, Turkish foreign minister Abdullah Gul ruled out any intervention from the military in the political process, declaring, "Today, it does not seem possible such a thing could happen. Turkey has developed completely in the last few years."

On Mar. 27, Erdogan discussed Turkey's bid to join the European Union (EU), saying, "If the EU has a negative perception of Turkish membership, then it should make up its mind so we can continue on our path. As we have said before, we will rename the Copenhagen political criteria the Ankara political criteria and the Maastricht economic criteria the Istanbul economic criteria and continue on our path."

On Apr. 14, more than 300,000 people marched in Ankara to protest an eventual presidential bid by Erdogan.

On Apr. 16, the presidential race officially began. The final day for the registration of candidates is Apr. 29. A vote in the Grand National Assembly can require as many as four rounds. While any member of the legislative branch can run, it is unlikely that the opposition will submit a contender.

On Apr. 24, foreign minister Abdullah Gul became the AKP's presidential candidate. Erdogan endorsed Gul, saying, "After our evaluations to seek a name for the eleventh president, we have come up with the name of our dear friend, Abdullah Gul." Erdogan dismissed criticism from the opposition, who regard Gul as an Islamist, adding, "Turkey is tired now of their tension-raising, political style. Unfortunately, when there is peace and stability in Turkey, it is in spite of them."

Republican People's Party (CHP) deputy leader Mustafa Ozyurek expressed disappointment, saying, "(Gul's) mindset is no different than Erdogan. There is no evidence that he is sincerely loyal at heart to the secular republic and principles of Ataturk."

On Apr. 28, Gul failed to get elected, garnering 357 votes in the 550-seat Great National Assembly, short of the 367 required for an outright win. Gul now faces a second vote, where he still requires the support of two-thirds of all lawmakers. If the process reaches a third round, a simple majority of 276 votes—which the AKP has—would suffice to elect a new head of state.

Turkey's military released a statement in defence of secularism, which read: "The Turkish Armed Forces maintain their sound determination to carry out their duties stemming from laws to protect the unchangeable characteristics of the Republic of Turkey. Their loyalty to this determination is absolute."

The CHP filed an official complaint with the country's Constitutional Court, challenging the legality of the first round of voting in the Grand National Assembly on account of quorum violations.

On Apr. 29, at least 750,000 people marched through the streets of Istambul to protest Gul's candidacy. The demonstrators carried signs, which read: "Turkey is secular and will remain secular", and "shoulder to shoulder against sharia (Islamic law)." Gul dismissed changing his plans, saying, "The process has begun and will continue. There can be no question of my candidacy being withdrawn."

On May 1, Turkey's Constitutional Court annulled the presidential election, ruling in favour of a request to block Gul's candidacy. CHP leader Deniz Baykal discussed the situation, saying, "It's not possible to re-run the (presidential) election. The only thing now is to go to general elections, which are inescapable."

On May 2, Erdogan suggested holding a presidential election, and changing the head of state's term limits, to allow him or her to serve two five-year mandates.

On May 3, the Great National Assembly scheduled the general election for Jul. 22. Gul has said he intends to run as a presidential candidate, either under the current system or if a nationwide ballot is called.

On May 6, Gul withdrew his candidacy. AKP lawmaker Egemen Bagis described the situation, saying, "The only point of stability, the only concept we can have some faith in are the citizens of this country. It will be up to the Turkish nation to decide whom they want to govern them."

A May poll by Sonar placed that AKP in first place with 29.04 per cent, followed by the Republican People's Party (CHP), the National Action Party (MHP), the True Path Party (DYP), and the Youth Party (GP).

On May 5, the DYP and the Motherland Party (ANAP) united to create the Turkish Democratic Party (DP), which will be headed by former DYP leader Mehmet Agar.

On May 16, Erdogan said he is willing to defend the secular state, and rebuked accusations by the opposition on this matter, saying, "To talk of revolutions, military coups and Sharia law is to do an injustice to our government and our people. We have been in power for four and a half years. Why suddenly these rumours of coups and Sharia law?"

On May 17, the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Democratic Left Party (DSP) agreed to contest the legislative election together. CHP leader Deniz Baykal called the decision "a historic step."

On May 31, Erdogan catalogued the upcoming election as one of the country's most critical in recent history, declaring, "Efforts that have been initiated to transform and push Turkey forward are vitally important and should not be interrupted under any circumstance. To preserve tranquility and stability is very important. I believe in the common sense of our people to maintain this."

On Jun. 1, Gul's wife, Hayrunnisa Gul, said she thought the accusations about herself and her husband having a secret Islamist agenda for the country were unfounded, adding, "If there was (an agenda), I'm still looking for it." Mrs. Gul also referred to criticism of her decision to wear a headscarf on a regular basis, declaring, "It saddens me to face prejudice on an issue which I see as completely my personal preference."

On Jun. 19, Turkish president Ahmet Necdet Sezer vetoed a measure proposed by the Erdogan government to hold a referendum on whether the people should directly elect the head of state. Sezer, a staunch secularist, defended his decision, saying, "The confusion that would be created by holding the general elections and referendum together would make it more difficult to reach a healthy result on the issue."

On Jun. 21, Germany pledged to re-open stalled negotiations between Turkey and the EU. Eckart Cuntz, Germany's ambassador to Turkey, declared: "The opening of three chapters in EU accession negotiation talks with Turkey still remains an objective."

On Jun. 27, Turkey's military chief Yasar Buyukanit requested the government permission and guidelines to retaliate against Kurdish guerrillas who are allegedly attacking Turkey from northern Iraq. Buyukanit declared during a televised news conference: "There is a need to know political targets in this struggle, then the military would determine what kind of force it needs to do it and seek formal approval."

Buyukanit had previously asked the government to approve an incursion into northern Iraq, as well as increasing pressure on the United States and Iraq to crack down on Kurdish rebels there.

On Jul. 5, the Constitutional Court endorsed the government's plan to hold a referendum on whether the president should be directly elected by the people, starting in 2014. The plebiscite is expected to take place in October or November, after this year's legislative ballot.

In early July, independent left-leaning candidate Baskin Oran commented on Turkey's current political situation, saying, "Turkey is transforming into a democratic era from a monolithic nation state. The AKP should abandon its mentality of 'I am the biggest party, and so what it should be like is what I say.'"

On Jul. 13, AKP lawmaker Vahid Erdem said his party would retain its majority in the legislature, adding, "To take into consideration that most votes will be gained by the Justice and Development Party, the candidature for presidency will be put only by this party."

On Jul. 17, Turkish energy minister Hilmi Guler said Turkey and Iran reached a preliminary agreement to carry natural gas from Iran and Turkmenistan to Europe. Guler explained the deal to reporters, saying, "We discussed some requests from Iran in return to their demand to export natural gas to European Union countries (via Turkey). As a result, we agreed on carrying Turkmen gas via Iran to Turkey and then to Europe."

Also on Jul. 17, independent candidate Tuncay Seyranlioglu was assassinated in Istambul. On the same date, Erdogan vowed to quit public service if the AKP fails to secure a majority in the Great National Assembly, declaring, "If we can't come to power alone, I'll leave politics."

On Jul. 19, CHP leader Baykal urged Erdogan to explain how his son was able to buy a freight ship, asking, "From which bank did he take a loan? In return of what guarantee was the loan issued?" The prime minister dismissed the comments, saying, "Instead of grappling with me, Mr. Baykal should disclose his own wealth Mr. Baykal has totally lost his composure. (...) Maybe it is because of the public opinion polls he sees every day."

Voting intention polls released in July by the VERSO Center of Political Studies, Konda and GENAR suggested a victory for the AKP.

Voting took place on Jul. 22. Final results gave the AKP 46.66 per cent of the vote and 341 seats in the legislative branch. Erdogan expressed satisfaction, declaring, "We will resolve this matter (the upcoming presidential election) without causing tension. We will continue to work with determination to achieve our European Union goal. We will continue democratic reforms, economic development will continue."

Turkish Democratic Party (DP) leader Mehmet Agar tendered his resignation, after his political organization failed to reach the 10 per cent threshold to earn seats. On Jul. 24, CHP leader Baykal said he would not quit.

On Aug. 28, Gul was elected by a majority in the third round of the presidential ballot, after failing to secure the support of two-thirds of sitting lawmakers in the previous two attempts. General Yasar Buyukanit—the commander of the Turkish armed forces—did not attend Gul's swearing-in ceremony.

Political Players

President: Ahmet Necdet Sezer
Prime minister: Abdullah Gul - AKP

The president is elected to a single seven-year term by the Great National Assembly.

Legislative Branch: The Great National Assembly (Turkiye Buyuk Millet Meclisi) has 550 members, elected through proportional representation with a 10 per cent threshold. Independent candidates may run, but require 10 per cent of the vote in their province.

Results of Last Election:

Great National Assembly - Jul. 22, 2007

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