Election Date: October 28, 2007

Abstract: At stake: President

At stake: President

Background

For most of the past seven decades, Argentina has been ruled by military juntas and populist governments. In 1943, the armed forces took control of the South American country. Three years later, a huge majority elected Juan Domingo Perón—chief of the army colonels leading the junta—as Argentina's president.

In 1949, a constitutional amendment allowed Perón to seek a new term as president. The Peronist or Justicialist Party (PJ) was then created, as the head of state established a populist dictatorship. For more than a decade, Perón relied on the support of the army and the clergy and—with the help of his popular wife Eva Duarte de Perón—secured the backing of labour unions as well.

In 1955, a coup forced Perón into exile. U.S.-supported governments took control of the South American nation, as both Peronists and Communists were virtually absent from the political loop in the 1960s. Perón returned to Argentina in 1972, and was elected president in 1973. He died a year later, and was substituted by his widow, Isabel Martínez de Perón.

In 1975, violence took over the nation as inflation reached 300 per cent. A year later, Jorge Rafael Videla led a coup to topple the government. The military dissolved the legislative branch, and launched a "Dirty War" against opponents. Hundreds of Argentines were killed, and thousands more—whose situation remains uncertain to this day—are referred to as "disappeared."

In 1982, Argentina took control of the British-held Falkland Islands—or Islas Malvinas—claiming sovereignty over the territory. A four-month military conflict ended with a victory for British forces. The defeat prompted more protests against Argentina's severely weakened military rulers.

In October 1983, democracy was restored with the victory of Raúl Alfonsín of the Radical Civic Union (UCR) in the presidential ballot. Six years later, Peronist candidate Carlos Menem was elected, immediately instituting an austerity program.

In 1991, the Menem government—through economy minister Domingo Cavallo—decided to peg the peso to the U.S. dollar in an effort to combat inflation. The practice worked well during the 1990s, as Argentina's economy was able to escape the devaluations affronted by Mexico in 1995, and Brazil in 1999. Menem also privatized several state-run businesses and liberalized trade, to establish Argentina as an economic force in South America.

In the 1999 presidential election, Fernando de la Rúa of the centre-left Alianza coalition—encompassing the UCR and the Front for a Country in Solidarity (FREPASO)—defeated Peronist candidate Eduardo Duhalde. By 2000, the country could no longer keep the peso's fixed exchange rate. The situation took a turn for the worse in 2001, as a decline in consumer confidence provoked substantial withdrawals from banks. By late 2001, amid violent protests and riots, Cavallo—in his second stint as economy minister—resigned his post. De la Rúa quickly followed suit after 25 people died on street demonstrations.

In January 2002, the National Congress picked Duhalde as interim president. At the time of Duhalde's selection, more than half of all Argentines were living in poverty, and the national currency had lost over two thirds of its value. In 2003, Néstor Kirchner of the Peronist, left-wing driven Front for Victory (FV) became Argentina's new president.

Kirchner signed a new deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The president's mandate has focused primarily on economic recovery and an investigation on human rights abuses committed during the military dictatorship.

In October 2005, Kirchner was boosted by a good showing from his FV in the legislative election, which included a victory for his wife, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, in the Buenos Aires Senate race.

Click here for 2005 Argentina Election Tracker

2007 Presidential Election

The ballot has been scheduled for Oct. 28. Argentina has held five presidential elections since the demise of an eight-year military dictatorship in 1982. In the event no candidate garners more than 45 per cent of the vote—or reaches a percentage between 40 and 45 per cent with a 10 per cent lead over the closest competitor—a run-off between the two leading candidates must take place.

Current president Néstor Kirchner is eligible for consecutive re-election. In December 2006, Kirchner dismissed talk of a possible second term, declaring, "Rest assured that we will not waste time discussing the electoral year in advance. We must be less dramatic. People go and vote, choosing what they want, and then you have to keep on governing." Some media outlets have speculated with the possibility of first lady and Buenos Aires senator Cristina Fernández de Kirchner becoming the candidate for the ruling Front for Victory (FV).

Also in December 2006, Carlos Menem—who governed Argentina from 1989 to 1999—announced that he intends to become a presidential candidate again, declaring, "They launched a slanderous campaign and they thought they were going to topple me, but here I am, as active as ever. They did everything they could, but I am the angel and they are the demons."

Other prospective contenders include Mauricio Macri of Commitment for Change (CC), Elisa Carrió of the Alliance Affirmation for an Egalitarian Republic (ARI), former economy minister Roberto Lavagna, and Neuquen governor Jorge Sobisch.

On Jan. 5, 2007, Lavagna launched his presidential bid, saying, "I have made up my mind, now we're finalizing the details. I'm absolutely convinced I can win."

During a February visit to Venezuela, Kirchner publicly condemned those who believe both him and his Brazilian counterpart Luis Inacio Lula da Silva should "contain" the more radical left-wing Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez. Deeming the idea as "completely wrong," Kirchner added: "We build with our brother and partner Chávez a space for the construction of our people's dignity in South America."

In February, Macri withdrew from the presidential race, declaring, "I'm again running to be mayor because I have a commitment to the inhabitants of the city of Buenos Aires and because I love this city." Macri lost the 2003 election in Argentina's capital in a run-off against Aníbal Ibarra.

On Mar. 11, Menem criticized Kirchner, declaring, "When he served as governor, Kirchner placed me as one of the best presidents of all time. He was staunchly pro-Menem. (...) His permanent attacks against my government's work show a great level of resentment."

On May 25, Kirchner celebrated his fourth anniversary in office and called for a grand alliance of parties ahead of this year's presidential ballot, adding, "Electoral issues must be solved in due time. Meanwhile, this is the time to work."

On Jul. 2, Fernández de Kirchner announced she would run to succeed her husband. The president launched a campaign on her behalf two days later, saying, "In Argentina, the deepening of change will come about by the hand of a woman who, I know without a doubt, is going to undertake a much better government than the one we've had up until now. (...) I deeply believe in Cristina's capacity of transformation. (...) I trust in the people's good memory and I know that on Oct. 28 the ballot boxes will be full of good memory."

On Jul. 3, Argentinean senator Gerardo Morales—the vice-presidential contender on Lavagna's ticket—said Fernández de Kirchner's candidacy is beneficial, adding, "It is clear Cristina is the weaker candidate."

Polls conducted by Ipsos Mora y Araujo, Analogías and CEOP in June—before Fernández de Kirchner's candidacy became official—suggested she would earn a victory in the first round.

On Jul. 10, Kirchner attended the celebration of the Argentinean stock exchange anniversary. During the event, the current president declared: "From the beginning of my term, I had to deal with critics saying mine was a hegemonic project; that I wanted to stay in the presidency forever. (...) I loved being the president, but I'm leaving because I believe Argentina has to build a democratic culture with examples." Kirchner said he thinks his wife is the best choice for voters who want change, because the rest of the candidates "are practically the same than in 2003."

On Jul. 16, economy minister Felisa Miceli resigned from Kirchner's government after it was revealed that a stack of money—calculated at $31,000 U.S.—was found in her office bathroom. An investigation into the case was announced days later. Miceli said she left to avoid tarnishing the government's image and to "clarify" her situation. She also referred to the investigation into the mysterious incident, saying it caused "an undeserved damage to my honour which undoubtedly affects our government."

On Jul. 21, Lavagna formally launched his candidacy and said fighting poverty would be his government's core policy. The alleged architect of Argentina's financial recovery said the country has a "great opportunity" to expand its economy "with growth that reaches everyone," adding, "The government is wasting this possibility, throwing it into the trash bin."

On Jul. 23, Lavagna criticized the economic policies implemented by Kirchner after he left the cabinet, and accused him of sparking high inflation, which he called "a machine to create poor people and destroy the Argentine middle class."

On Aug. 6, the Argentinean government announced that inflation in July reached 0.5 per cent, a lower number than previously expected. Recently, economic analysts both in Argentina and abroad have questioned recent inflation data reported by the country's Statistics Agency (INDEC), and have raised fears that officials might be intentionally underreporting inflation in an election year.

Rodolfo Rossi, an economic analyst and former Central Bank president, questioned the latest numbers, saying, "You can see that the index is manipulated, it is not real. Surely it must have some basis, but this is not the (inflation) index that people are enduring."

On Aug. 14, Alejandro Rodríguez, spokesperson for Lavagna, called for the resignation of planning minister Julio de Vido. Rodríguez urged Kirchner to take action against de Vido after officials in his ministry allegedly tried to bring $800,000 U.S. illegally into Argentina.

Venezuelan businessman Guido Antonini was searched by customs officials while entering Argentina with a suitcase full of American currency. Antonini, who was travelling from Venezuela, was accompanied by several Argentine officials from the Planning Ministry.

The government fired Claudio Uberti—the official responsible for commercial relations with Venezuela and de Vido's "right hand man"—following the incident. Rodríguez declared: "The preventative dismissal of the planning minister cannot be delayed any longer."

On Aug. 21, Menem criticized Fernández de Kirchner, saying, "She is not ready to be a candidate. She is a proud woman, full of hatred and with a bunch of ambitions that evidently have nothing to do with what Argentines need at this trying time."

On Aug. 22, López Murphy confirmed rumours that he is trying to forge a coalition with Carrió to have a greater chance of defeating Fernández de Kirchner in the election. However, Carrió has stated that she has a "moral impediment" for striking a deal with López Murphy, since he remains an ally of conservative Mauricio Macri, the recently-elected mayor of Buenos Aires.

On Aug. 23, ARI lawmaker Marta Maffei said her party could stop supporting Carrió if she strikes a deal with López Murphy, adding, "In case that happens, we would have to discuss that possibility, but I am working so that (the deal) is not finalized."

Throughout 2007, Argentina has had a particularly high level of economic inflation. In January, the president replaced Graciela Bevacqua—the official in charge of calculating inflation—which led to allegations of manipulation. On Sept. 6, Kirchner dismissed the rumours, saying that “everyone knows” the country’s inflation statistics are credible.

On Sept. 13, Argentina’s Central Bank president Martin Redrado discussed the situation, saying, “The central bank is concerned, deeply concerned, about the current level of inflation. (...) There is no room for complacency.”

On Sept. 26, former economy minister Domingo Cavallo discussed the presidential race, saying, “If Cristina wins, she will end up with a presidency similar to (Raúl) Alfonsín’s, not because of hyperinflation, but because of the general feeling. (...) There is no way I would vote for either Cristina or Lavagna.”

On Oct. 2, Argentinean interior minister Aníbal Fernández said a run-off is practically impossible, adding, “There is not a single poll that gives a chance to the opposition’s candidates.” Fernández insisted that the election has not been decided, adding, “The motto of our campaign is ‘Every day we need to gain one more vote’.”

On Oct. 3, López Murphy expressed dissatisfaction with the way the Kirchners are campaigning, saying, “They are doing illegal things—the governing dynasty appears to have no limits.” The Recreate candidate said he still has time to “convince the people that we have a proposal, leadership and project that are superior to what the current government offers.”

On Oct. 6, Lavagna criticized the current government’s economic policies, saying, “They have established the ‘Ostrich Plan’, where there’s no inflation, no setbacks with public safety and no energy crisis, while we acknowledge the problems and have a plan to solve them.”

Also on Oct. 6, former president Raúl Alfonsín—who governed from 1983 to 1989—said he expects a run-off, saying, “I don’t think Mrs. Cristina will get 45 per cent of the vote.

Also on Oct. 6, Fernando Solanas—who is running for president under the Project South banner—expressed disappointment with current economic policies, saying, “Nobody is questioning the neo-liberal model. (...) This government was built with the same people as the ones of Menem and (former interim president Eduardo) Duhalde; the same people who were told in 2001 to go away.”

In early October, Carrió criticized Fernández de Kirchner for avoiding the topic of inflation during a conversation with journalists, saying, “The worst error is not to acknowledge the reality of the inflationary problem.”

Voting intention surveys conducted in September and October by Hugo Haime y Asociados, Equis, Analogías, OPSM and CEOP gave Fernández de Kirchner more than 40 per cent of the vote, with Carrió a distant second with less than 15 per cent.

A large portion of Fernández de Kirchner’s campaign has been developed outside Argentina. In late September, José Miguel Vivanco, the Americas director for the non-profit organization Human Rights Watch (HRW), referred to the candidate’s knowledge and interest in international affairs, saying, “Argentina under Cristina Kirchner is going to develop a very visible foreign policy. (...) If she finds the angle, I don’t think she will be shy to actively engage Argentina in difficult human rights cases like the Sudan or Burma.” On Sept. 28, Lavagna criticized her approach, saying, “Her campaign consists principally of having her picture taken abroad.”

On Oct. 19, Lavagna criticized the Kirchner administration’s record on fighting crime, saying policy-making has been affected by an unwillingness to accept existing data on crime rates. Lavagna declared: “The government denies everything that contradicts their ideal image of the country. (…) It creates an illusory image and that’s why it can’t solve the problems.”

On Oct. 21, Carrió said she is confident she will become president if her main contender fails to win an outright victory in the first round of voting, declaring, “I can’t be irresponsible and predict there will be a run-off at this point, but I can say that if there is one I will be president.” Carrió said she believes there will be a second round of voting, adding, “There is a great number of undecided voters. (...) There are a lot of people that don’t want to vote for Cristina. I don’t know what would have happened if the candidate was the president and not her.”

On Oct. 24, Menem slammed current president Kirchner, saying, “He is not a peronist, he is a populist and he represents the worst kind of populism. To me, he is the anti-Christ.” Menem briefly considered joining the presidential race this year, but ended up endorsing Rodríguez Saá instead.

Also on Oct. 24, Lavagna said he would remain “active in political life” regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, adding, “My alliance is very different from previous ones, and more akin to the Chilean style.” In Chile, the centre-left Agreement of Parties for Democracy (CPD)—which includes the Socialist Party (PS), the Christian-Democratic Party of Chile (PCD), the Party for Democracy (PD) and the Radical Social-Democratic Party (PRSD)—has not lost a single presidential election since the return of democracy after the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet in March 1990.

On Oct. 25, Fernández de Kirchner discussed her views on pregnancy termination, saying, “I have always defined myself as ‘against abortion.’ I don’t think people who want to decriminalize abortion are actually in favour of it.” Lavagna defended existing legislation on the issue, saying, “There can be conflictive situations related to life and the health of a mother, but these are taken care of in the Penal Code.”

Voting took place on Oct. 28. Fernández de Kirchner declared victory on election night, saying, “I’m part of a generation that grew up in a country in which nobody could say anything, so we value this in a very special way. (...) We have won clearly, maybe with the largest difference since the restoration of democracy. But this, far from placing us in a position of privilege, places us in a role with more responsibility and obligations.”

Carrió acknowledged defeat, adding, “We are the second most important political group at the national level. The Civic Coalition is here to stay, and to allow our nation to be governed four years from now by a civilized force.”

Final results gave the first lady 44.9 per cent of the vote, followed by Carrió with 23 per cent, Lavagna with 16.9 per cent, and Rodríguez Saá with 7.7 per cent.

On Oct. 29, Fernández de Kirchner suggested she will keep working hand-in-hand with her husband, declaring, “Since 2003 we’ve fought poverty, unemployment and the things that caused so much damage and brought so much tragedy to the Argentine people. We’re going to construct a different history.”

On Oct. 30, Fernández de Kirchner acknowledged her husband’s role in her successful campaign, saying, “Kirchner has been the flagship of this project as the president of all Argentines. It’s very important what he has achieved in four-and-a-half years in office, and this triumph is part of that.”

On Nov. 20, Kirchner revealed that the country’s unemployment rate fell to 8.1 per cent in the third quarter of the year—the lowest level since October 1992—and declared: “The economy is doing very well. (...) We don’t fear growth, we fear neo-liberal economic recipes.”

Fernández de Kirchner was sworn in on Dec. 10.

Political Players

President: Cristina Fernández de Kirchner - FV
Vice-president: Julio Cobos - FV

The president and vice-president are elected—in the same ticket—by popular vote to a four-year term.

Legislative Branch: The Congreso Nacional (National Congress) has two chambers. The Cámara de Diputados de la Nación (Chamber of Deputies of the Nation) has 257 members, elected by proportional representation to four-year terms, with half of the seats renewed every two years. The Senado de la Nación (Senate of the Nation) has 72 members, elected to six-year terms. One-third of the Senate is renewed every two years.

Results of Last Election:

President - Oct. 28, 2007

	Vote%
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner - Front for Victory (FV)	44.9%
Elisa Carrió - Civic Coalition (CC)	23.0%
Roberto Lavagna - An Advanced Nation (UNA)	16.9%
Alberto Rodríguez Saá - Justicialist Front, Union and Liberty (FREJULI)	7.7%
Fernando Solanas - Project South (PS)	1.6%
Jorge Sobisch - United Provinces Movement (MPU)	1.6%
Ricardo López Murphy - Recreate (Recrear)	1.5%
Other candidates	2.8%

Chamber of Deputies - Oct. 23, 2005
(127 of 257 seats at stake)

	Vote%	Seats
Front for Victory (FV)	29.9%	50
Radical Civic Union (UCR)	8.9%	10
Alternative for a Republic of Equals (ARI)	7.2%	8
Justicialist Party (PJ)	6.7%	9
Republican Proposal (PRO)	6.2%	9
Justicialist Front (FJ)	3.9%	7
Progressive, Civic and Social Front (FPCS)	3.7%	5
Alliance Union of Córdoba (AUC)	3.1%	4
Federalist Unity Party (PAUFE)	2.2%	2
Alliance New Front (AFN)	2.0%	3
Front of Everyone (FdeT)	1.9%	6
Front for the Renewal of Concordia (FRC)	1.1%	2
Civic Front for Santiago (FCS)	1.1%	3
Neuquino People's Movement (MPN)	0.5%	2
Other parties	21.5%	7

Chamber of Senators - Oct. 23, 2005
(24 of 72 seats at stake)

	Vote%	Seats
Front for Victory (FV)	45.1%	14
Justicialist Front (FJ)	17.2%	3
Radical Civic Union (UCR)	7.5%	2
Republican Proposal (PRO)	6.2%	--
Alternative for a Republic of Equals (ARI)	6.9%	--
Front for the Renewal of Concordia (FRC)	2.4%	2
Front of Jujuy (FJu)	1.0%	1
Alliance Front of Production and Labour (AFPT)	0.9%	1
Justicialist Party (PJ)	0.7%	1
Other parties	12.0%	--

 

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