Angus Reid Global Monitor : Election Tracker

Peru

 

Credit:Flag courtesy of ITA’s Flags of All Countries used with permission.

Election Date: June 4, 2006

Abstract: At stake: President

Background                       Top
2006 Presidential and Congress
Political Players
Results of Last Election
Related Info                     

At stake: President

Background

Located on the west coast of the South American continent, Peru is rich in natural resources, but deep economic and political divisions have hampered its development.

For most of the 20th Century, Peruvian politics was mired in a cycle of military juntas overcome by largely populist democratic civilian governments that were in turn toppled by armed coups, while guerrilla insurgencies punctuated events throughout.

In 1990, Alberto Fujimori—a Peruvian of Japanese descent—was elected president. He is widely credited for reducing government spending and wresting the country's hyperinflation under control through market reforms.

In 1992, Fujimori suspended the constitution, claiming that it hindered the army's fight to suppress guerrilla groups such as Shining Path.

In 1993, a new constitution was drafted. The document removed the presidential term limitations, allowing Fujimori to run for re-election, which he won in 1995. By this time, opposition to his hard-line tactics—which were deemed "dictatorial" by opponents—began to gain momentum. There were numerous reports of political rivals "disappearing."

In 2000, Fujimori's intelligence chief, Vladimiro Montesinos, was secretly videotaped by the news media as he offered a bribe to opposition politicians. The scandal forced Fujimori from office, and he exiled himself to Japan. In 2001, an international arrest warrant was issued for Fujimori for alleged connections to two massacres committed during his time as president.

In 2001, Alejandro Toledo of Possible Peru (PP) won the presidential election in a run-off over former head of state Alan García of the American Revolutionary People's Alliance (APRA).

During his term in office, Toledo has had to deal with remarkably low approval ratings, due in part to a guilty verdict rendered against him for election fraud. In December 2004, the Peruvian Congress authorized summoning Toledo—as well as first lady Eliane Karp and three of the president's siblings—to respond to allegations that a registry of PP party members included falsified signatures.

In May 2005, congressman Edgar Villanueva issued the inquiry commission's final report. The document—endorsed by only three of the five commission members—accused Toledo of "illicit association" and "plotting against the public faith."

Toledo—who has appointed five different prime ministers during his tenure—cannot seek a consecutive term as president in the upcoming election, as it is proscribed by the country's current constitution.

2006 Presidential and Congress of the Republic Election Election      Top

In 2005, Lourdes Flores Nano of the Popular Christian Party (PPC) emerged as the frontrunner in Peru's presidential race, topping voting intention surveys both in the Metropolitan Lima area and at the national level. Flores Nano's support reached 27.6 per cent in an October nationwide survey by CPI, well short of the 50 per cent required for a first round victory.

Former head of state Alan García of the American Revolutionary People's Alliance (APRA) and former president Valentín Paniagua of Popular Action (AP) are seen as Flores Nano's main challengers. Other prospective candidates include Ollanta Humala of the Etnocacerista Movement (ME), Jaime Salinas of National Justice (JN), Alberto Andrade of We Are Peru (SP), David Waisman of Possible Peru (PP), Yehude Simons of the Humanist Movement (MH), Natale Amprimo of the Alliance for Progress (APEP) and Alberto Borea Odría of Democratic Force (FD).

Former president Fujimori—who administered the Peruvian government from 1990 to 2000—cannot seek office until 2010 because of a congressional decision. In October 2005, Fujimori announced his intention to run for president under the "Sí Cumple" (Yes, he keeps his promises) banner, declaring, "Support for my candidacy is high, and therefore, I am prepared to mount a legal strategy that will enable me to participate in the next election."

On Nov. 7, Fujimori was arrested in Santiago by Chilean authorities at the request of the government of Peru. He had hoped to return to Peru via Chile in order to campaign for his re-election bid.

On Nov. 27, Peru's National Electoral Council (NEC) announced that Fujimori has indeed been disqualified from standing as a candidate in the upcoming presidential election. Referring to some convicted criminals and others barred by congressional resolutions, Enrique Mendonza, head of the NEC, said in an interview, "There are about 900 people who are ineligible to run as candidates and former president Fujimori is among them."

On Dec. 5, the governing PP announced that Jeanette Enmanuel, the proprietor of a holistic medicine business, would be the party's presidential candidate. Enmanuel decided to abandon the race less than a week later and was substituted by Rafael Belaúnde Aubry.

In late November, prime minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski expressed concern about a possible victory for retired colonel Ollanta Humala—who is running as the Peruvian Nationalist Party (PNP) candidate—saying, "He has been very hostile with many people. He has said businessmen should be executed by firing squad and he expressed support for the murder of four police officers in Andahuaylas. This is not the proper background for a president."

Polls conducted in November and December by CPI, Apoyo, Universidad de Lima gave Flores Nano 25 per cent of the vote, with Humala and García battling for second place. Paniagua expressed doubts about the outcome of those surveys, declaring, "A poll reveals a state of mind, but it can hardly predict the future."

In December, Ciro Gálvez—presidential candidate of the Andean Rebirth (RA) party—accused Humala of plagiarizing some of his proposals, declaring, "I don't know where Humala is getting the money to finance a campaign where he is bombarding the media with ideas that I have already presented (in a book)."

On Dec. 26, Flores Nano expressed satisfaction with her campaign, saying, "I think I have many reasons to feel optimistic, but I will work intensely and this will be my best reply to those who remain sceptical and to my political adversaries."

Polls released in late December by Idice and Datum Internacional suggested a two-way race, with Flores Nano and Humala garnering the backing of more than 20 per cent of voters.

In early January 2006, Isaac Humala—Ollanta's father—caused a controversy after he referred to Flores Nano as "a right-wing spinster." The PPC candidate reacted to the statement by saying, "I will not build my campaign on tantrums or insults."

On Jan. 21, Humala vowed to help the government of Bolivian president Evo Morales, saying, "If I reach the presidency, we will help our (Bolivian) brothers to have a legitimate and historic access to the Pacific." Bolivia lost its only sea access in the 1879 war against Chile, a matter that is still a source of tension between the two South American nations.

On Jan. 24, Flores Nano said she would pursue a solution to Peru's long-standing maritime border dispute with Chile, adding, "We are capable of having both dialogue and diplomatic proximity."

On Jan. 27, Paniagua's vice-presidential nominee Alberto Andrade—a former mayor of Lima—dismissed Flores Nano's credentials, saying, "Theory and facts are different things. The candidate who is leading in the polls has never governed anything. We are jumping into the chasm."

Polls conducted in January by Apoyo, Datum Internacional, Peruana de Opinión Pública, CPI and Universidad de Lima placed Flores Nano in first place, with numbers ranging from 26 per cent to 30 per cent. Humala said he was not concerned with the results, saying, "My day-to-day is not based on polls. My real poll is on the street, and if published surveys place me last or first, that is irrelevant."

On Jan. 28, APRA secretary-general Jorge del Castillo claimed that people close to Flores Nano had offered money to National Justice (JN) presidential candidate Jaime Salinas to drop out of the race. Salinas, who has not polled above eight per cent during the course of the campaign, denied the allegations. In February, del Castillo acknowledged that he cannot prove that a voice on an audio tape—which was the basis of his claims—is really that of Salinas.

Polls conducted in February by Idice, Datum Internacioal and Apoyo put Flores Nano in first place, with anywhere from 27.2 per cent to 35 per cent. García dismissed concerns about the results of the latest surveys, saying, "I have full confidence in the fact that the real poll is the one that never fails, and it takes place on election day." Del Castillo said it is too early to tell if the former president will reach the run-off, saying, "We have not even begun with our radio and television campaign."

In mid-February, Flores Nano discussed the early success of her campaign, saying, "In the middle of a general scepticism, and the lack of credibility that politicians have among citizens, my being a woman provides hope."

In late February, APRA congresswoman Judith de la Matta said she expected Flores Nano to drop even further, and predicted that García and Humala would reach the run-off, adding, "The people will realize that (Flores Nano) represents the multinational companies that have hurt this country so much by not paying their taxes."

In early March, Humala once again denied the Madre Mia allegations, saying, "In trying to destroy my candidacy, they are bothering officials who simply should not be remembering the painful times of war."

On Mar. 3, García discussed his chances against the two other contenders. The former president said Humala would be "an easier rival," but added that defeating Flores Nano, who he defined as "a more structured candidate, with an ideology" is "more attractive." García also criticized Humala's financial policies, declaring, "He says he will invest $1.5 billion U.S. in agricultural programs, and $3 billion on education, and I'm not certain where the money will come from. It's hard to examine those statements."

February polls by Universidad Católica, Idice, CPI, Apoyo, Conecta y Asociados, and Universidad de Lima put Flores Nano in first place, with support ranging from 24.3 per cent to 33.6 per cent.

In early March, PNP spokesman Daniel Abugattas said Humala supports feeding a small amount of coca to school children as a way to improve their diet, adding, "We have a grave nutritional problem and we have the solution at our fingertips." The plan would entail adding coca leaf flour to the dough used to make bread as part of the government's school breakfast program.

Peru allows the cultivation of about 25,000 acres of coca leaf for chewing, and for sale to pharmaceutical companies, as well as tea and soft drink makers.

In a Mar. 10 interview with the BBC, Toledo discussed the electoral process, saying, "I have the responsibility to conduct an election that needs to be clean, transparent and on July 28, I will put the presidential band to whoever the country has decided to elect. However I am interested in someone who will build over our accomplishments, correct our weaknesses, and provide stability. We had grown 6.7 per cent last year, we have been growing for five years on an average 5.0 per cent, and I don't want to destroy that."

An early March poll by IMA placed Flores Nano in first place with 26.9 per cent.

On Mar. 13, García vowed to cancel the proposed free trade agreement between Peru and the United States, declaring, "If Toledo signs the deal, I will simply erase his signature when I am in government. Toledo should not sign something that the public demands to discuss extensively."

On Mar. 16, Flores Nano defended her platform, declaring, "We represent the reliability that the country requires. The worst thing Peru can do is jump to the chasm by supporting old ideas that have failed, and illusions built around stories we already know."

On Mar. 19, Humala declared, "All Peruvians agree that we need to look for an alternative to neo-liberalism, which has destroyed the nucleus of society—the family."

On Mar. 21, Flores Nano expressed confidence, declaring, "I'm certain that Peruvians will not hesitate in choosing the proposal we are offering. (...) Peru must choose whether to return to a past that tolerates terrorism, or a path of progress and security."

On Mar. 23, Humala accused his rivals of creating an ambience of fear around his candidacy, adding, "Now that they perceive us as an unstoppable force, they are looking for ways to assemble, before the election, the 'Everyone Against Humala' party."

Polls conducted in March by Apoyo, CPI, UNI, IDICE, Conecta Asociados and Datum Internacional placed Humala as the new frontrunner, with the support of 26.5 per cent to 34.2 per cent of respondents. Flores Nano was second in five surveys, while the IDICE poll suggested García would reach the run-off.

On Mar. 25, García declared, "I analyze the results with serenity and patience. In the last election, support for my candidacy increased by 10 points in the last 15 days of the campaign, so something like this could happen again, as the electorate seeks an organized and responsible option."In late March, the campaign was dominated by a couple of outrageous statements. Humala's spokesman Daniel Abugattas insulted Eliane Karp—the wife of current president Alejandro Toledo—in an interview. Also, a tape where Humala's brother Antauro calls for several public figures—including Toledo and Karp—to be "shot by firing squad" was broadcast by Radio CPN.

On Mar. 29, Humala expressed concerns about a possible fraud, declaring, "I'm worried about the state of affairs because we have seen how some army and police officers are not being allowed to cast ballots, and this is tainting the process." Flores Nano dismissed Humala's statement, calling it "out of order for a presidential candidate" and "impertinent."

On Mar. 31, Humala said the current government does not have the support to sign the proposed free trade agreement with the United States, adding, "If it truly responds to the national interests, and no jobs are jeopardized, it will be signed."

In an interview published on Apr. 4 in Argentina's Página 12, Humala predicted a brief mandate for Flores Nano should she become president, declaring, "What happened with the presidents of other Latin American countries would happen here, she would be kicked out by the people. It will be very hard for Lourdes Flores to reach a year of government."

On Apr. 6, Flores Nano declared, "I urge all voters not to permit improvisation or demagoguery lead us again. I urge you to not repeat past mistakes in economic and social policies that brought hunger and despair to the country." The PPC candidate also criticized Humala for suggesting that her tenure would be brief if she is elected, saying, "It has been very difficult for Peruvians to defend democracy and freedom, so this insinuation is unwarranted."

For his part, García urged voters not to choose between "the military dictatorship embodied by Humala, and the dictatorship of money that Flores represents."

On Apr. 7, García said he was confident of a good outcome, declaring, "APRA has put forward a proposal based on employment and social justice."

Polls released in early April by Apoyo, Pontificia Universidad Católica, Datum Internacional and Universidad de Lima placed Humala in first place with a low of 26 per cent and a high of 31 per cent. A survey by CPI had Flores Nano in first place with 27.6 per cent. García surpassed the 20 per cent mark in all five studies.

Voting took place on Apr. 9. Humala urged all Peruvians to "join up with this movement to transform Peru." Preliminary results from 68.02 per cent of all constituencies reporting give Humala 26.52 per cent of all cast ballots, followed by García with 21.19 per cent, and Flores Nano with 20.30 per cent.

On Apr. 13, García said he would reach the second round, declaring, "The votes cast by Peruvians living abroad apparently favour Lourdes Flores and will bring my numbers down, but not enough to alter the final outcome."

On Apr. 27, with 99.48 per cent of all votes tallied, Humala remained in first place with 30.67 per cent, followed by García with 24.33 per cent and Flores Nano with 23.73 per cent.

Since no candidate garnered more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off has been tentatively scheduled for Jun. 4.

A poll conducted by Datum Internacional in late April gave García an eight-point advantage in a head-to-head contest against Humala.

On Apr. 24, García said his prospective rival would try to become a different candidate before the run-off, adding, "I don't think the people will be easily misled. Another Humala is running, but Peruvians are well aware of the disguises he wears."

Humala called for a presidential debate, so voters "can realize what García brings to the table, and what Humala brings to the table."

On May 1, García accused Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez of becoming involved in Humala's campaign "through envelopes filled with money." Venezuelan foreign minister Alí Rodríguez rejected the allegation, adding, "García does not feel very safe, so he is appealing to these excuses in order to win points."

On May 6, Peruvian president Alejandro Toledo said the run-off would be a choice "between authoritarianism and democracy" in what was interpreted as a veiled endorsement of García. The APRA candidate urged Toledo to remain "neutral" during the campaign. Humala said Toledo supports García, adding, "This goes beyond traditional politics. A pact is being assembled to conceal the terrible acts of the current government."

On May 8, García criticized Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez, declaring, "The public rejects the intromission of South America's rich relative, who comes to tell us with the might of his oil and his money what Peru has to do. (...) We have a solid, popular party that seeks social justice, and we do not accept his lessons."

On May 11, PPC vice-presidential candidate Arturo Woodman appeared to endorse García, declaring, "Pondering the two choices, I think García has changed and will be able to have a much better government that Humala."

Polls released in May by Apoyo, CPI, Datum Internacional, IDICE and Universidad de Lima suggested García would defeat Humala in the run-off.

On May 15, the two candidates agreed to take part in a televised debate on May 21. Humala declared, "The important thing is for the Peruvian people to listen to the proposals. We are completely willing to sit down and talk." For his part, García defined the meeting as "not the fight of the century, but simply a confrontation of views and ideas."

On May 17, García said he would not travel much if he becomes president, saying, "Why so many summits? Peru needs its president here and not in a permanent tour of the world." The APRA nominee even hinted at selling the presidential plane, which cost an estimated $37 million U.S.

On May 21, the two contenders took part in a televised debate. García chided Humala, declaring, "We want a country that impedes authoritarianism and abuses, and respects tolerance and criticism with social democracy. (Humala) represents authoritarianism in the style of (Venezuelan president Hugo) Chávez."

Humala urged voters not to support García, saying, "He represents not the people, but a minority that has the power and is tied to multinational powers. We must rescue our natural resources for the state." The UP candidate also said he would renounce his salary as president, and live off his military pension if he is elected.

On May 22, Humala hinted at the possibility of fraud in the run-off. The UP contender also vowed to reduce the price of gas by 30 per cent if he becomes elected.

García dismissed Humala's assertion, declaring, "Candidates should subject themselves to the democratic regulations, and say publicly that they will respect any outcome."

On May 23, García refuted the veiled endorsement of former president Alberto Fujimori and Peruvian writer and former presidential candidate Mario Vargas Llosa, declaring, "These opinions were neither sought, nor urged, and they are not required."

Vargas Llosa had called García "the lesser of two evils" in an article, and Fujimori expressed that the APRA contender had "evolved" as a politician.

On May 27, Humala claimed that polling companies are opposed to his candidacy, declaring, "These people pretend to place me with a voting intention of 0.0 per cent, minus one. Under these conditions, I am wondering if I will vote for myself."

On May 28, Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez expressed his preference for a Humala victory in the Peruvian election, declaring, "García will become a divisive presence, an imperialist pawn who will try to divide us, to cause problems from Peru with Bolivia and Venezuela and with any other government that establishes a path to socialism."

On May 31, García said his victory in the ballot would mean "a defeat to the militarist right, and above all, a defeat to all those dictators who pretend to dominate Latin America." The APRA candidate once again mentioned Chávez in his speech, alleging that he "is poisoning national politics with his statements and hunger for power."

Run-off voting took place on Jun. 4. Final results gave García 52.63 per cent of all cast ballots, with Humala a distant second with 47.37 per cent. The results show that the APRA candidate won outright in nine of the country's 24 departments, including Lima, home to almost one-third of Peru's eligible voters.

García thanked his supporters, and declared, "I think it is fundamental for our homeland to take its place as the first nation of the South American Pacific, and to move ahead of our neighbours."

On Jul. 28, García officially took over as president.

Political Players
                                                                         Top

President: Alan García - APRA
Prime minister: Jorge del Castillo - APRA

The president is elected by to a five-year term by popular vote.

Legislative Branch: The Congreso de la República (Congress of the Republic) has 120 members, elected to five-year terms by proportional representation.

Results of Last Election:              Top                                                              

President - Apr. 9 and Jun. 4, 2006

 

Apr. 9

Jun. 4

Alan García Pérez - American
Revolutionary People's Alliance (APRA)

30.62%

52.63%

Ollanta Humala Tasso -
Union for Peru (UPP)

24.32%

47.37%

Lourdes Flores Nano - National Unity -
Popular Christian Party (UN-PPC)

23.80%

--

Martha Chávez -
Alliance for the Future (APF)

7.43%

--

Valentín Paniagua -
Front of Centre Alliance (AFC)

5.75%

--

Humberto Lay Sun -
National Restoration (RN)

4.37%

--

Susana Villarán -
Decentralizing Agreement (CD)

0.62%

--

Jaime Salinas -
National Justice (JN)

0.53%

--

Javier Diez Canseco -
Socialist Party (PS)

0.49%

--

Natale Amprimo -
Alliance for Progress (APP)

0.40%

--

Pedro Koechlin Von Stein -
With Force Peru (CFP)

0.31%

--

Alberto Moreno -
New Left Movement (MNI)

0.27%

--

Alberto Borea -
Democratic Force (FD)

0.20%

--

Ulises Humala -
Improve Country (AP)

0.20%

--

Ciro Gálvez -
Andean Renaissance (RA)

0.18%

--

Javier Espinoza -
Let's Make Progress Peru

0.11%

--

José Cardó Guarderas -
Democratic Reconstruction (RD)

0.09%

--

Ántero Asto -
Peruvian Resurgence (RP)

0.08%

--

Ricardo Wong -
It's Called Peru

0.08%

 --

Luis Guerrero -
Peru Now (PA)

0.06%

--

Congress of the Republic - Apr. 9, 2006

 

Vote%

Seats

Union for Peru (UP)

21.15%

45

American Revolutionary People's Alliance (APRA)

20.58%

36

National Unity (UN)
Christian People's Party (PPC)
National Solidarity (SN)
National Renewal (RN)

15.33%

17

Alliance for the Future (AF)
Change 90 (Cambio 90)
New Majority (NM)

13.09%

13

Front of Centre Alliance (AFC)
Popular Action (AP)
We Are Peru (SP)
National Coordination of Independents (CNI)

7.07%

5

Possible Peru (PP)

4.10%

2

National Restoration (RN)

4.01%

2


Related Info

Public Opinion on Peru's 2006 Election
Campaign Behind Bars for Peru's Fujimori
Toledo Looks to Survive Low Numbers in Peru
Familiar Peruvians Orchestrate Political Showdown

You may also be interested in:

Why run-offs are sometimes required
Polling the left in Latin America
The agricultural dilemma in Doha

Archive Search

Search the Angus Reid Global Monitor Election Tracker archive.

Advanced Search