Election Date: June 27, 2004

Abstract: At stake: President

At stake: President

Background

The remnants of the Yugoslav Federation were transformed into Serbia and Montenegro on Feb. 4, 2003. Both member states are surviving as a single entity—mostly because of influence from the European Union (EU)—and have hinted at outright separation.

On Apr. 4, 2004, parliamentary speaker Predrag Markovic established Jun. 13 as the date for Serbia's presidential election. Lawmakers removed a controversial rule, which stated that elections could only be valid if more than 50 per cent of all eligible voters cast their ballots.

The Nov. 16, 2003 presidential election was a futile exercise, just like the previous two attempts. Final results indicated that roughly 39 per cent of the electors headed to the polls. Former Milosevic ally Tomislav Nikolic of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) led all candidates with 47 per cent, followed by Dragoljub Micunovic of the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) with 36 per cent. Their respective shares of the vote became meaningless after the low turnout was officially confirmed.

The failed presidential ballot was just another problem in a difficult year for Serbia. On Mar. 12, prime minister Zoran Djindjic was assassinated. The politician had angered nationalists after handing Milosevic to the United Nations (UN) war crimes tribunal in June 2001.

The reformist political organizations that forced Milosevic out have divided into three factions: the Democratic Party (DS), the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and the G-17 Plus.

Djindic's death meant a surge in support for the centrist DS. The conservative DSS—led by former Yugoslav president Vojislav Kostunica—overtook the DS in late August. The G-17 Plus, assembled by former National Bank of Serbia head Mladjan Dinkic and ex-deputy prime minister Miroljub Labus, registered 15 per cent in summer voting intention polls, five per cent less than the DSS.

On Nov. 13, acting president Natasa Micic officially dissolved the Serbian National Assembly and ordered a general election for Dec. 28. Voters headed to the polls once again to renew their parliament, with no elected president and no agreement on a long-awaited new constitution.

On Nov. 25, the SRS placed Vojislav Seselj—indicted for war crimes and behind bars in The Hague—as the top name on the list of Assembly candidates. The Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) placed former leader Milosevic—also behind bars for his alleged role in the Balkan wars of the 1990s—as a nominee for a parliamentary seat.

Official results were released on Dec. 31. The Serbian Radicals became the top political force in the Assembly with 82 seats, followed by the Democratic Party of Serbia with 53 seats and the Democratic Party with 37.

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) expressed its "disappointment" over the success of nationalists, and urged for the formation of a new democratic alliance.

On Feb. 4, 2004, Dragan Marsicanin became the National Assembly speaker and acting president. Marsicanin—a member of the DSS—will retain the post until a new head of state is elected on Jun. 13.

On Mar. 4, Kostunica became Serbia's prime minister, winning the support of 130 lawmakers in the 250-seat National Assembly. Kostunica reached an accord with the Socialists, and promised not to be "subservient" to the UN tribunal.

2004 Presidential Election

The 2004 presidential election had three main contenders: Tomislav Nikolic of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS), Boris Tadic of the Democratic Party (DS) and acting president Dragan Marsicanin of the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS). An April Faktor Plus/Politika poll placed Tadic as the frontrunner with 24.6 per cent, followed by Nikolic and Marsicanin.

Three other contenders registered lower levels of support: Ivica Dacic of the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), media magnate Bogoljub Karic and Jelisaveta Karadjordjevic, a member of the Yugoslav royal family. A May poll by Marten Board International put Nikolic in the lead with 30.8 per cent, followed by Tadic, Marsicanin and Karic.

A late May poll by Faktor Plus also put Nikolic as the frontrunner with 27.3 per cent, followed by Tadic with 24.8 per cent and Marsicanin with 20.6 per cent.

Voting went on without any major problems on Jun. 13. Final results gave Nikolic 30.6 per cent of the vote, with Tadic a close second with 27.3 per cent. Voter turnout was tabled at 47.7 per cent.

Since no candidate was able to garner more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, Nikolic and Tadic were to participate in a run-off.

A poll by Faktor Plus gave Tadic the edge in the second round with 53.6 per cent, with Nikolic at 46.4 per cent. Another survey by TNS Medium Gallup had Tadic with 54.1 per cent and Nikolic at 45.9 per cent.

The run-off was held on Jun. 27. Preliminary estimates from the Centre for Free Elections and Democracy indicated Tadic would be declared the winner with close to 54 per cent of all cast ballots. Nikolic conceded defeat late on election night.

Turnout for the second round was estimated at 48.7 per cent. Official numbers were released on Jun. 30, giving Tadic 53.2 per cent of the vote. The DS member was officially sworn in as president on Jul. 11.

Political Players

President: Boris Tadic - DS
Prime minister: Vojislav Kostunica - DSS

The president is elected to a five-year term by popular vote.

Legislative Branch: The Narodna Skupstina Srbije (Serbian National Assembly) has 250 members, elected to four-year terms.

Results of Last Election:

President - Jun. 13 and Jun. 27, 2004

	Jun. 13	Jun. 27
Boris Tadic - Democratic Party	27.3%	53.2%
Tomislav Nikolic - Serbian Radical Party	30.6%	45.4%
Bogoljub Karic - Strength of Serbia Movement	18.2%	--
Dragan Marsicanin - Democratic Party of Serbia	13.3%	--
Ivica Dacic - Socialist Party of Serbia	4.0%	--
Jelisaveta Karadordjevic - For a more beautiful Serbia	2.1%	--
Milovan Drecun - Serbian Revival	0.6%	--
Vladan Batic- Christian Democratic Party	0.5%	--
Branislav Ivkovic - Socialist Peoples Party	0.4%	--
Borislav Pelevic - Party of Serbian Unity	0.4%	--
Ljiljana Arandjelovic - United Serbia	0.3%	--
Marjan Risticevic - National Farmer's Party	0.3%	--
Dragan Djordjevic - Party of Serbian Citizens	0.2%	--
Zoran Milinkovic - Patriotic Party of Diaspora	0.2%	--
Mirko Jovic - Peoples' Radical Party	0.1%	--

Serbian National Assembly - Dec. 28, 2003

	Vote%	Seats
Serbian Radical Party (SRS)	27.61%	82
Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS)	17.72%	53
Democratic Party (DS)	12.58%	37
G-17 Plus	11.46%	34
Serbia Renewal Movement / New Serbia (SPO-NS)	7.66%	22
Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS)	7.61%	22
Together for Tolerance (ZT)	4.22%	--
Democratic Alternative (DA)	2.20%	--
For National Unity (ZNJ)	1.79%	--
Resistance Party (Otpor)	1.63%	--
Independent Serbia (SS)	1.18%	--

Full Report (PDF)

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