Election Date: November 4, 2006

Abstract: At stake: President, National Assembly

At stake: President, National Assembly

Background

The 20th Century in Nicaragua commenced with United States political and military intervention and concluded with massive destruction under the winds of Hurricane Mitch. The years in between were marked by civil war, revolution, considerable economic hardship and brutal dictators.

Previous to the political machinations that brought and kept the U.S. in the country in the late 1890's, Nicaragua experienced a time of economic progress under the Conservative Party (PC). Often referred to as the "Thirty Years", rail and road infrastructure was built, an agricultural industry established and exports—namely coffee and banana—flourished.

A split within the PC and an attempted coalition between liberals and dissident conservatives brought this period of peace to an end. Although unsuccessful, the coalition strengthened the Liberal position and a second, successful revolt installed a liberal, General Jose Santos Zelaya, as president. A 16-year dictatorship that attracted opposition from the international community began.

Zelaya's increasingly anti-American stance and his encouragement of German and Japanese involvement in canal investment sparked U.S. opposition. Increased repression saw dissident rebellion first in 1903 and later in 1909. It was the 1909 rebellion—funded by the Britain and backed by U.S. Marines—that toppled Zelaya.

The Liberal opposition refused to participate in the 1916 election, won by Emiliano Chamorro, but took part in the 1920 election that was widely regarded as fraudulent. A rogue element of the liberals—led by Augusto Cesar Sandino—staged a guerrilla campaign against the government and U.S. forces. To quell the violence, the U.S. established a National Guard which was to become one of the most important elements of Nicaraguan politics.

With growing concern at home, the U.S. withdrew from Nicaragua, handing control of the National Guard to the government, headed at the time led by liberal Juan Bautista Sacasa. Anastasio Somoza García was appointed chief director of the National Guard.

While Sacasa was attempting to negotiate with the rebels, National Guard troops—at the behest of Somoza Garcia—kidnapped and assassinated rebel leader Sandino and two of his generals. Somoza then led the National Guard in an anti-government campaign eventually toppling Sandino (incidentally his uncle) in 1936. Somoza ran and won the 1936 elections with an uncanny tally of 107,201 votes to 108, beginning more than four decades of a family dictatorship.

On Sept. 21, 1956, Somoza Garcia was shot by a young poet called Rigoberto López Pérez. He died eight days later. His sons succeeded him as president and chief director of the National Guard, and political repression ensued—particularly targeting political opponents and the media. Successive puppet governments ensured the political longevity of the Somoza family.

A 1972 earthquake drew international attention to Nicaragua and the ongoing dictatorship. It is estimated that the personal wealth of Anastasio Somoza Debayle—Somoza Garcia's son and president—had grown to $400 million U.S., much of which came directly from international aid sent in the aftermath of the earthquake. In September 1974, Somoza Debayle was re-elected as president.

Established in 1961, the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) was the first organized rebellion group to successfully challenge the Somoza family regime. By late 1974, the organization had coalesced under the leadership of Daniel Ortega Saavedra and his brother Humberto.

The National Patriotic Front (FPN), established by the FSLN and including a broad coalition of opposition groups, launched a final attack that brought heavy fighting throughout the country. A provisional government in exile, established in 1979 in Costa Rica, succeeded in forcing Somoza's resignation on in July 1979. Fleeing first to the United States, Somoza eventually settled in Paraguay where he was assassinated in September 1981. On Jul. 19, 1979, the government in exile entered the capital and assumed power, promising to create a democratic Nicaragua.

The Sandinistas inherited a country in ruins. The junta established governing institutions which were dominated by the Sandinistas. In addition, the Sandinistas created and controlled the army and police force that were trained by Cuban and Soviet military.

Recommencing with the Reagan administration, the U.S. funded guerrillas opposed to the Sandinista government. Established in Honduras and with an initial budget of $19 million U.S., the "Contras" consisted mostly of former National Guard members. In reaction, the Sandinistas initiated emergency laws banning criticism and opposition to the government. The first post-Somoza elections took place in November 1984, with 67 per cent of the vote going to Sandinista candidates. Election observers reported a fair vote, but opposition parties claimed intimidation and lack of resources. As Daniel Ortega of the FSLN took over as head of state, the United States instituted a full embargo of Nicaraguan trade and conflict with the "Contras" continued.

A peace agreement between the "Contras" and the government called for a new national election in 1990. Despite internal differences a broad opposition party, the United Nicaraguan Opposition (UNO) succeeded in defeating Ortega and the Sandinistas. Violeta Barrios de Chamorro won the presidential ballot, and vowed to bring peace and economic security to Nicaragua.

In 1992 an earthquake again hit Nicaragua, and in 1998, Hurricane Mitch devastated much of the country, along with Honduras and Guatemala. An estimated 3,000 Nicaraguans died and hundreds of thousands were rendered homeless.

Despite losing the 1990 and 1996 elections, Daniel Ortega contested the 2001 presidential ballot but lost to Enrique Bolaños of the Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC).

Bolaños lost the support of the PLC in January 2002, when his government decided to take legal action against Alemán. The former head of state—who governed the country from 1997 to 2002—was sentenced to 20 years in prison for fraud, money laundering and embezzlement.

In May 2004, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua agreed to the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA). The Dominican Republic followed suit in August. The agreement—which would reduce or eliminate taxes and tariffs on imports—still has to be approved by each country's legislative branch.

In November 2004, PLC and FSLN lawmakers at the National Assembly introduced a series of constitutional reforms that restrict presidential powers, by allowing the legislative branch to ratify, summon and dismiss government ministers. In January, the Central American Court of Justice (CCJ) unanimously ruled that the Nicaraguan legislative branch must not go ahead with the proposed reforms. Bolaños refused to sanction the amendments.

2006 President and National Assembly Election

The election is scheduled for Nov. 5. In the event no presidential contender receives 40 per cent of all cast ballots, the first place finisher can only avoid a run-off by reaching the 35 per cent mark and holding a five-point advantage over the closest rival.

Three names have dominated the early states of the campaign. Former Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC) member and presidency secretary Eduardo Montealegre assembled the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance - Conservative Party (ALN-PC) in 2005.

Herty Lewites headed the government of Nicaragua's capital from 2001 to 2005, but was expelled from the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) in February 2005. In March 2005, the party officially designated Daniel Ortega as its presidential nominee. Ortega governed from 1985 to 1990, but was a losing candidate in the 1990, 1996 and 2001 ballots.

On Mar. 27, the centre-right Union of Latin American Parties (UPLA) endorsed Montealegre in the Nicaraguan election. The group—led by former Salvadoran president Armando Calderón Sol—said the PLC dissident represents "a guarantee for a democratic and peaceful future" and "economic growth with social development."

In April, the PLC chose former vice-president José Rizo as its nominee during a convention of party members. In May, former defence minister José Antonio Alvarado rejected a presidential bid of his own, and became Rizo's running mate.

A poll released in May by Borge y Asociados placed Ortega in first place with 28.4 per cent, followed by Montealegre with 26.5 per cent. Rizo and Lewites were below the 20 per cent mark.

On Jul. 2, Lewites died of a heart ailment at the age of 66. MRS leader Dora María Téllez declared, "Herty is irreplaceable, but we will carry on with his legacy."

The MRS announced that economist Edmundo Jarquín would be its new presidential candidate, with singer-songwriter Carlos Mejía Godoy as his running mate.

On Jul. 8, Ortega criticized the American government's immigration policies, saying, "They can raise as many walls as they want, but they will not be able to stop Latin Americans from getting there."

On Aug. 22, Ortega dismissed the participation of electoral monitors from the Organization of American States (OAS) in the Nicaraguan election, saying, "The OAS has not said a word about the Mexican phenomenon. Their observers have not reviewed what is happening in Mexico, was there a fraud or not, and the country is paralyzed."

In an interview with the Associated Press published on Aug. 30, former Nicaraguan president Arnoldo Alemán acknowledged Ortega's recent success, saying, "It is very possible that the FSLN will win, unless the Liberals unite."

August polls by M&R and CID-Gallup placed Ortega as the frontrunner with 32.1 per cent and 29 per cent respectively, followed by Montealegre with 27.2 per cent and 23 per cent.

On Sept. 14, Montealegre, Jarquín, Rizo and Pastora took part in a televised debate. Montealegre defined the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) as "the best accord for Nicaragua."

Ortega justified his decision to stay away from the meeting, saying, "How are (the other candidates) going to respect the people if they let the owners of a television network set the rules? It is irresponsible to think that a government plan can be explained in one minute."

Also on Sept. 14, Bolaños urged young voters to not vote for a "has-been." These and other references from the current president have been interpreted as direct criticisms of Ortega.

On Sept. 27, the MRS issued a communiqué, accusing Ortega of betraying the principles of the Sandinista revolution. The statement claims Ortega's pact with former president and PLC member Arnoldo Alemán "only served to assign positions, pay huge salaries and establish a system of institutional corruption that benefits drug traffickers and the powerful, who can pay off judges."

Polls conducted in August and September by Borge y Asociados, CID-Gallup M&R and Zogby International placed Ortega as the frontrunner, but without enough support to avoid a run-off.

An early October survey by Universidad Centroamericana suggested a first round victory for Ortega. On Oct. 19, the FSLN candidate urged his supporters to pay little attention to polls, declaring, "Surveys showing us ahead keep coming out, but people should not fall into the trap of believing we have already won and there is no need to get out and vote. Be careful, they are trying to get us to stay at home with the old tale that we have already won."

Also on Oct. 19, Montealegre ruled out a formal alliance with the PLC, declaring, "If it's to defeat Daniel Ortega, how can I join forces with Arnoldo Alemán, who is the one that gave Ortega all his power?"

On Oct. 25, Oliver North—a former Marine and aide to U.S. president Ronald Reagan—visited Nicaragua. North urged voters to support Rizo instead of Ortega, declaring, "My hope is that the people of Nicaragua are not going to return to that. That's not good for your country. That's not good for my country."

On Oct. 27, Ortega refused to attend a debate with Montealegre in Managua. The ALN-PC candidate expressed disappointment, declaring, "It was important for (Ortega) to show up, but he unfortunately decided not to do so. (...) During his government, we had alliances with conflictive countries, wars, divisions, press censorship and half a million Nicaraguans emigrated to look for a better life."

Polls released in late October and early November by Zogby International, CID Gallup, Borge y Asociados and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research all placed Ortega in first place.

On Nov. 2, Ortega held his final campaign event in Managua, and declared, "Our rivals, who have launched these dirty campaigns and tried to smear us must be sure that once we're in government, we will not respond in the same fashion."

Voting took place on Nov. 5. Preliminary results from 91.48 per cent of all cast ballots place Daniel Ortega of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) with 38.07 per cent, followed by Eduardo Montealegre of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance - Conservative Party (ALN-PC) with 29 per cent, José Rizo of the Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC) with 26.21 per cent, Edmundo Jarquín of the Sandinista Renewal Movement (MRS) with 6.44 per cent, and Edén Pastora of Christian Alternative (AC) with 0.27 per cent.

On Nov. 7, Montealegre conceded and congratulated Ortega at the FSLN headquarters, saying, "We have come to tell (Ortega and running mate Jaime Morales Carazo) that we will work by supporting a constructive, intelligent, honest and democratic opposition."

On Jan. 10, 2007, Ortega was sworn in for a five-year term. Vice-president Jaime Morales Carazo discussed the main challenges of the government, saying, "Our top priority is to address the extreme poverty that our people have to face and to provide a stable environment for investment."

Political Players

President: Enrique Bolanos (PLC)

The president is elected to a five-year term by popular vote.

Legislative branch: The unicameral Asamblea Nacional (National Assembly) has 92 members, 90 members are elected to five-year terms by proportional representation; one seat is reserved for the outgoing president and another seat is reserved for the second-place finisher in the presidential election.

Results of Last Election:

President - Nov. 5, 2006

	Vote%
Daniel Ortega - Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN)	37.99%
Eduardo Montealegre - Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance - Conservative Party (ALN-PC)	28.30%
José Rizo - Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC)	27.11%
Edmundo Jarquín - Sandinista Renewal Movement (MRS)	6.29%
Edén Pastora - Christian Alternative (AC)	0.29%

National Assembly - Nov. 5, 2006

	Vote%	Seats
Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN)	37.59%	38
Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance - Conservative Party (ALN-PC)	26.72%	22
Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC)	26.47%	25
Sandinista Renewal Movement (MRS)	8.69%	5
Christian Alternative (AC)	0.54%	--

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