Election Date: July 1, 2006

Abstract: At stake: President, Congress

Background             Top
2006 Presidential Election
Political Players
Results of Last Election
Related Info

At stake: President, Congress

Background

Following the conclusion of the Mexican Revolution in the 1920s, the country's political scene was dominated by a single organization. The National Revolutionary Party (PNR) was formed in 1929, and was eventually renamed as the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) in 1946. For more than seven decades, this party formed every single government in Mexico.

For most of the 20th Century, Mexico enjoyed prosperity, harmony and economic growth. The problems for the ruling party began in 1968, when president Gustavo Díaz Ordaz authorized the armed forces to quash a student protest held a few days before the Summer Olympics in Mexico City. Hundreds of protesters were killed or wounded. Díaz Ordaz would later appoint his interior secretary, Luis Echeverría, as the PRI's next presidential candidate.

Echeverría's term was marked by other instances of abuse. He was supplanted by José López Portillo in 1976, who won a largely uncontested election on account of divisions within the opposition. An economic crisis forced López Portillo to devalue the peso in September 1982—two months after Miguel de la Madrid was elected as his successor.

De la Madrid's tenure was affected by the 1985 earthquake that killed 20,000 people in Mexico City. The president was severely criticized after he hesitated in accepting international assistance to deal with the crisis. While de la Madrid had been highly regarded for his economic prowess, his term saw a 100 per cent yearly increase in inflation.

Allegations of fraud surfaced during and after the 1988 presidential election, when the government blamed the breakdown of a computer system for unexpected delays in the distribution of results. In the end, Carlos Salinas—the nominee for the ruling PRI—was declared the winner with 50.7 per cent of the vote, defeating Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas of the National Democratic Front (FDN).

Salinas served as Mexico's president from 1988 to 1994, and signed the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the United States and Canada. The last year of his tenure was marred by the Zapatista National Liberation Army (EZLN) revolt in Chiapas, the assassination of PRI presidential candidate Luis Donaldo Colosio, and the alleged involvement of Salinas' own brother—Raúl Salinas—in the murder of PRI secretary-general José Francisco Ruiz Massieu.

In December 1994, three weeks after Salinas left office, Mexico suffered a grave economic crisis as the Mexican peso lost a third of its value. In February 1995, Salinas went on a brief hunger strike to protest the assertion that his own administration was responsible for the financial collapse.

Ernesto Zedillo, who had defeated National Action Party (PAN) candidate Diego Fernández de Ceballos and Cárdenas of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) in the August 1994 election, benefited from an emergency loan authorized by the United States to keep Mexico's economy afloat. During his term, several kidnappings of high profile businessmen took place, and some Mexican cities became increasingly unsafe.

In 1997, Mexico City voters were able to choose their head of government through the ballot box for the first time in five decades. The PRD's Cárdenas won the ballot.

In July 2000, the PAN's Vicente Fox ended 71 years of uninterrupted rule by the PRI, winning a six-year term with 42.5 per cent of the vote. PRI candidate Francisco Labastida—a former interior secretary—and the PRD's Cárdenas were defeated. During the first three years of his term, Fox had a hard time trying to pass proposals through a highly divided Congress compiled with members of the three main parties.

In 2003, the mid-term elections in Mexico proved devastating for Fox, as the PAN lost more than 50 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. The PRI bounced back with 224 legislators, becoming the main political faction in the Mexican Congress.

Click here for 2003 Mexico Election Tracker

In the second half of his term, Fox endeavoured to achieve a deal to allow Mexican migrants to legally work in the U.S. In February 2005, U.S. ambassador to Mexico Antonio Garza sent a letter to foreign secretary Luis Ernesto Derbez and attorney general Rafael Macedo de la Concha, claiming Mexico's law enforcement units were incapable of dealing with the security situation along the U.S.-Mexico border.

Derbez said Garza's position was "exaggerated." The office of Fox issued a communiqué on Jan. 27, saying the country "does not accept judgement from any foreign entity" on its policies. On Jan. 31, Fox himself declared Garza's letter had been "a bit scandalous."

In February 2005, the Chamber of Deputies approved a controversial proposal to allow Mexicans living abroad to vote in the 2006 presidential election. Fox stated that the ruling would enable "millions of Mexicans who live outside the country" to "set an example of democracy." In the end, only 41,000 Mexicans living abroad requested ballots.

2006 Presidential Election Top

In November 2005, the three main contenders for the presidential race were clearly defined. Former energy secretary Felipe Calderón defeated former interior secretary Santiago Creel and former environment secretary Alberto Cárdenas in a primary election open only to National Action Party (PAN) members. Former Tabasco governor Roberto Madrazo locked the Institutional Revolutionary party (PRI) nod when former State of Mexico governor Arturo Montiel withdrew from the two-man preliminary contest.

Former Mexico City mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador officially secured the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) nomination in December 2005. López Obrador was expected to face a federal judicial process on a charge of abuse of authority, stemming from the construction of roads in a lot expropriated by the Mexico City government in 2000. In May 2005, all criminal charges against López Obrador were dropped.

Patricia Mercado of the Social-Democratic and Peasant Alternative Party (PASC) and Roberto Campa of the New Alliance Party (PNA) also contended. The Mexican electoral system does not contemplate a run-off in the event no candidate receives 50 per cent of all cast ballots, so the top vote-getter would automatically become the next president.

Mexico's Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) urged all presidential candidates to cease their campaign activities from Dec. 11, 2005, to Jan. 18, 2006. López Obrador called the decision "absurd."

In December 2005, the PRD established an alliance with the Workers Party (PT) and Convergence for Democracy (CD). The Green Environmentalist Party (PVEM) will contest the presidential and legislative elections as part of a coalition with the PRI. In the 2000 ballot, the PVEM sided with the PAN.

In January 2006, the IFE rejected a petition from certain PASC members to register Víctor González Torres as their presidential candidate, instead of Mercado. González Torres—who goes by the adopted name of Dr. Simi and administers a national chain of discount drugstores—attempted to launch an independent presidential bid in 2004 after conducting an unscientific internet poll.

On Feb. 18, López Obrador denied having a shaky relationship with Mexico's business leaders, and added, "I don't get along with influence peddlers and looters, those who have ruined the country, because they know their privileges will be over soon."

On Feb. 21, former Spanish president José María Aznar endorsed Calderón, saying, "Mexico has a great opportunity to choose between assurance and uncertainty, between stability and adventure, and between political serenity and demagoguery."

Mexico's presidential spokesman Rubén Aguilar commented on Aznar's statement, saying, "The Interior Secretariat is analyzing what was said by the former president, to assess if there is a violation, and if necessary, to explain to him that Mexican law does not allow foreigners to partake in expressions of a political nature."

In March, López Obrador proposed lowering the current duties on electricity. Calderón criticized the plan, calling it "a great lie" and said he would not privatize the state-owned Federal Electricity Commission (CFE).

On Mar. 13, López Obrador expressed confidence in a victory—a first for Mexico's leftist political organizations—declaring, "They can't touch us. When you have ideals, when you are not moved by ambition, power or money you are politically invulnerable. I don't want to say you are indestructible because they'll start questioning, that but why not say politically indestructible?" Calderón dismissed Madrazo's chances, declaring, "The fight is with López Obrador."

In mid-March, a PAN television spot compared López Obrador with Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez. From Caracas, Chávez accused "the Mexican right" of "using television in an effort to stop the rise of the Mexican left and its presidential candidate." López Obrador said he has never spoken with the Venezuelan president—not even over the phone—and added, "Our rivals are desperate."

On Mar. 25, former PRD presidential candidate Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas criticized the unpleasant tone of the current campaign. When asked if he intends to appear alongside López Obrador in public meetings, Cárdenas added, "I am nobody's candidate; the only support I can provide is through my vote."

All polls conducted in the first three months of 2006 put López Obrador in first place, with more than 35 per cent of the vote, followed by Calderón and Madrazo.

On Apr. 3, the Supreme Court ratified its ruling that calls for a disclaimer to be placed on all of the government's media advertisements. The justices also said Fox could face prosecution if he fails to abide by the verdict. The opposition alleges that these spots could be used by the PAN for political gain.

In early April, Calderón offered to scrap the highly unpopular vehicle tax. López Obrador dismissed the idea, saying, "State governors will not be willing to lose the revenue generated by this tax. Also, Fox offered to scrap this same tax six years ago, and did not deliver."

On Apr. 17, Madrazo—who has consistently placed third in the voting intention surveys—dismissed being concerned about his showing, saying, "I think the only person who is worried about the numbers is López Obrador, because there is not a single survey where he is not coming down."

On Apr. 25, Calderón, Madrazo, Mercado and Campa took part in a televised debate. López Obrador did not show up. The PRD nominee was to attend a second and final meeting of candidates on Jun. 6. PRD spokesman Gerardo Fernández Noroña explained the rationale, saying, "The idea (of the other parties) was to drown out our campaign with debates, but we stuck to our position."

On Apr. 30, Calderón criticized López Obrador's attitude when discussing voting intention surveys, declaring, "When polls were in his favour, he acknowledged them. Now, he despises them. When we were in second place, we did not criticize pollsters, but fine-tuned our strategies."

On May 4, Calderón said he would be willing to invite members of other political organizations to create a joint program for the country, declaring, "I wish I could be able to convince the whole PRI, I know it will not be possible, but I do wish to share my plans and the responsibility."

On May 5, Calderón said the election would be a choice "between the anarchy, violence and disorder the PRD represents, or a government that applies the law, and respects legality, rights and integrity."

On May 6, López Obrador blamed the media for focusing on his setbacks, saying, "Nobody is perfect, but the only difference is that my mistakes are being magnified. If the PAN candidate, the candidate of the right, makes a mistake, it's a news story but not a scandal."

On May 9, Zapatista National Liberation Army (EZLN) spokesman Marcos said he expected López Obrador to win the election. Marcos added that "not even Madrazo's own relatives" find the PRI nominee credible, and that Calderón represents "the continuation of the hazy profile of an administrator that Fox is."

On May 11, Calderón urged the other presidential candidates to "make a clear commitment without hesitation in favour of democracy and legality." López Obrador declared, "I have already made clear that we support solving conflicts trough politics, dialogue, accords and negotiation."

Polls conducted in late April and May by GEA-ISA, Reforma, Milenio, Consulta Mitofsky, Ulises Beltrán y Asociados, Parametría, El Universal and Zogby International placed Calderón as the new leader, with López Obrador in second place.

On May 15, López Obrador called the El Universal survey "tricky" and "malicious," adding, "This is part of a strategy, I can say no more, people do not believe in tricky polls, it's that simple."

Also on May 15, Calderón warned about the possibility of electoral irregularities in states where the PRI is in charge of the state government, declaring, "Some PRI governors, in an act of desperation, might attempt to compensate their party's abrupt fall through mechanisms that are not very democratic."

On May 19, Madrazo hinted at a possible alliance with López Obrador, saying, "It's one of several possibilities. The important thing is to call on the president not to serve as Felipe Calderón's campaign manager."

On May 22, Fox spoke the country in a televised address, declaring that the July presidential election would be "the cleanest ever." The president vowed to cancel all advertisements from the government until after the vote takes place.

López Obrador sent a letter to Fox, apparently regretting some statements made during the campaign, such as telling the president to "shut up" and likening him to a noisy bird called "chachalaca."

On May 25, PRI senator and former interior secretary Manuel Bartlett called on PRI supporters to vote for López Obrador, saying, "With our candidate in third place, people shouldn't waste their vote and should vote against the conservative right."

On May 28, López Obrador dismissed the possibility of post-election violence, saying, "Everything is evolving in a very peaceful manner, and we seek change through the path of accord. We are going to win by a large margin, so people will not try to take away our triumph."

On May 30, PRD campaign coordinator Jesús Ortega expressed confidence on a good showing from López Obrador at the debate, declaring, "He will win convincingly; he will address the country as a head of state and with the cautious and purposeful leadership that the country needs."

By late May, the race appeared to become tighter. A poll by Consulta Mitofsky had Calderón and López Obrador tied with 34 per cent, while a study by Milenio put the PRD nominee ahead by just half a point.

On Jun. 3, Calderón presented a book where he hints at the possibility of a coalition administration should he become Mexico's next president. The PAN candidate writes, "I will invite López Obrador, Madrazo, Campa, Mercado, and the parliamentary groups that support them to (...) start talks that would establish a unity government."

On Jun. 5, Madrazo expressed concerns over the electoral roll, declaring, "There are a series of inconsistencies on the list which have been acknowledged by the (Federal Electoral Institute). Some places of residence have changed, some people have died, and some others live in the United States and are registered here, so a careful review is in order."

On Jun. 6, the five candidates discussed their proposals for two hours in the second and final televised debate. Calderón criticized the PRD candidate, saying, "The project you represent is a danger for Mexico because of the threat of debt and economic crisis. (The PRD) would mean inflation, devaluations, economic crisis and another bankruptcy for the country."

López Obrador criticized the current government's position in the world, declaring, "The next Mexican president is not going to be the toy of any foreign government. We are going to have a relationship of mutual respect with the U.S. government."

On Jun. 12, López Obrador said his claims that Calderón steered government contracts on behalf of his own brother-in-law, Diego Zavala, effectively "unmasked those who hold a double moral standard." Calderón criticized the PRD, saying, "Those clowns presented three empty boxes, and there was no proof, absolutely none, against me."

On Jun. 13, representatives from seven political parties vowed to abide by a "civility pact" and respect the outcome of the election. López Obrador ruled out seeking a consecutive mandate, saying, "I respect history, and I know that every person who has tried to re-elect himself has had a rough time." In Mexico, re-election was abolished in 1917.

On Jun. 14, Calderón once again called for the formation of a coalition government, saying, "We must have, not the generosity, but the patriotism to find concurrence."

On Jun. 15, Calderón dismissed the allegations that he favoured his own brother-in-law during his tenure as a public servant, saying, "I categorically deny giving a single contract to a relative of mine. (...) This has all been a great lie." López Obrador expressed satisfaction with recent surveys, saying, "The people want a real change; we are doing very well everywhere."

On Jun. 16, IFE president Luis Carlos Ugalde endorsed Mexico's electoral roll, declaring, "United Nations (UN) experts have said that the registry is absolutely dependable."

On Jun. 18, Madrazo criticized Fox's style of government, declaring, "We cannot afford six more years with this economy, this insecurity and this foreign policy, and the so-called presidential couple—I don't think Mexico will withstand something like that anymore; it can't be."

On Jun. 20, López Obrador questioned the reliability of polls in Mexico, declaring, "It is a methodology designed for homogenous societies. It's a North American methodology, it might apply in the United States, but our society doesn't function like that." Calderón repeated his pledge to form a coalition administration, declaring, "I will not discard those who do not think like me, even if they are my rivals."

On Jun. 21, Calderón vowed to enact a "unilateral ceasefire" with the Zapatista National Liberation Army (EZLN), adding, "I know that the real reason for the war that started (in Chiapas) was misery." There have been no new clashes between the Zapatistas and the Mexican armed forces in more than 11 years.

On Jun. 23, López Obrador vowed to appoint a cabinet with the same number of male and female members, saying, "This is not just to set a quota, but because I had a great experience with women (as Mexico City's mayor)." The PRD candidate also pledged to keep the economy in order, declaring, "We are going to have money because we are going to govern with honesty, because there will be no luxury for the government, and because we will put an end to all privileges."

Calderón urged PRI supporters to back him, saying, "I know there are many PRI voters who would not allow someone who represents a danger to Mexico to become president." The PAN candidate also expressed confidence in a victory, declaring, "I know it is going to be a very competitive election, where the vote of every Mexican is going to be important, but we will win by a sufficient margin to govern in December."

On Jun. 24, López Obrador blamed Mexico's Business Coordinating Council (CCE) for putting in place a campaign designed to discourage voters from supporting him, declaring, "They say the world is going to end if I win the presidency, but nothing will happen."

Calderón said he is the only contender who can effectively deal with crime, declaring, "The PRI cannot do it, because the lack of public safety is within the realm of corruption, and the (PRD) cannot do it either, because its presidential candidate does not respect the law." Madrazo said he expected "an election without surprises, because the campaign has not hurt the economy."

On Jun. 25, Calderón urged voters to support him, saying, "I will guarantee economic growth and stability, and employment. (...) López Obrador would lead us to debt, inflation, devaluation and economic crises." The PAN candidate said he expects to win the election by "a million an a half" ballots.

López Obrador said his government would "create all those jobs that have been lost over the past few years because of the implementation of neo-liberal policies."

Mexico 2006: Final Polls

	López Obrador	Calderón	Madrazo
Mitofsky	36%	33%	27%
Zogby	31.3%	34.5%	27.1%
Parametría	36.5%	32.5%	27.0%
Reforma	36%	34%	25%
Ulises Beltrán	34%	34%	26%
Milenio	35.4%	30.5%	29.6%
GEA-ISA	31%	33%	20%
El Universal	36%	34%	26%
U. de G.	35.8%	33.5%	25.3%
Average	34.6%	33.2%	25.8%

The average of the last nine voting intention polls released before a blackout period came into effect gives López Obrador a slim 1.4-point advantage over Calderón—well within the margin of error of every survey.

On Jun. 30, PRD members claimed that someone hacked into López Obrador's website and posted a "call for resistance" in the event of en electoral defeat. On the same day, former president and PRI member Luis Echeverría was placed under house arrest for his role in the 1968 student massacre.

IFE president Ugalde urged candidates "not to proclaim themselves as winners" until the official results are released.

Voting took place on Jul. 2. IFE president Ugalde said the outcome of the election would not be known until Jul. 5, as it is currently "impossible to predict the winner" with partial tallies.

With 98.45 per cent of all polling stations reporting, Felipe Calderón of the National Action Party (PAN) was first with 36.38 per cent, followed by Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) with 35.34 per cent, and Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) with 21.57 per cent.

Turnout was tabled at 58.90 per cent.

On Jul. 5, IFE officials began the process of tallying the votes as shown on the certificates presented by each polling station. On Jul. 6, official results placed Calderón as the winner with 35.88 per cent of all cast ballots, followed by López Obrador with 35.31 per cent.

IFE president Ugalde announced the official tallies, adding, "The golden rule of democracy establishes that the winner is the candidate with the larger number of votes."

López Obrador has called on his supporters to assemble in Mexico City on Jul. 8 for what he described as an "informative assembly", adding, "I will act responsibly, but I will not stand idly by. We are going to show that (the PAN) did not win the election, and they should be ashamed."

On Jul. 10, López Obrador filed a legal challenge to the election result, alleging widespread fraud and calling for a hand recount of every ballot. The Federal Electoral Tribunal (TRIFE) must issue a ruling before Aug. 31. A winner must be declared on or before Sept. 6.

On Jul. 16, thousands of PRD supporters assembled in Mexico City. López Obrador called for "the formation of a citizens' committee, which will define which actions of peaceful civil resistance should be implemented, and when they should be carried out." López Obrador's advisor Manuel Camacho warned about possible acts of violence, saying, "If the votes are not counted, all these people who are now smiling will raise their fists."

On Jul. 18, López Obrador said Calderón should "think this through, and understand that the social peace of the country is at stake." The PRD nominee added, "I cannot accept an election such as this one, because it is totally illegal and I will not acknowledge the PAN's candidate."

Calderón criticized his rival, declaring, "Nobody should pretend to win on the streets what he did not win through the ballot box. We demand the people's will to be respected."

On Jul. 20, López Obrador reiterated his wish for a recount, saying, "Transparency is not much to ask for. We've done studies and all it would take for a full recount is six days, which would give us six years of political, economical and financial stability."

In late July and August, López Obrador's supporters erected tent camps, blocked access to several Mexico City avenues, taken over toll booths in roads leading to the capital, and clashed with riot police outside the Mexican Congress.

On Aug. 5, the TRIFE ordered a partial recount in 9.07 per cent of the country's 130,000 polling stations.

On Aug. 14, Calderón declared, "We are satisfied with the results of the recount and believe that this corroborates the news that the Federal Electoral Tribunal is proceeding to carry out its constitutional duty to announce the president-elect." PRD lawyer Horacio Duarte claimed that Calderón has lost 14,140 votes during the recount, adding that the TRIFE should annul the results.

In an interview published by the Financial Times on Aug. 20, López Obrador declared, "The most important changes in Mexico have never come about through conventional politics but rather from the streets. (...) Mexico needs a revolution."

On Aug. 24, López Obrador claimed he won the election "by 2 million votes." On Aug. 28, the TRIFE said it had "no reason" to consider the allegations of vote-buying and ballot stuffing made by López Obrador. Calderón refrained from referring to himself as the president-elect, declaring, "I am waiting for my turn, I am not certain of the Tribunal's final decision."

On Sept. 1, Mexican president Vicente Fox was unable to deliver his sixth and final State of the Country address, after dozens of PRD lawmakers took control of the stage of Congress to protest the outcome of the Jul. 2 election. The president presented a written copy to the legislative branch.

On Sept. 5, the TRIFE declared that Calderón was the winner of the presidential election with 36.68 per cent of all cast ballots, followed by López Obrador with 36.11 per cent. The TRIFE also censured the behaviour of Fox during the campaign, claiming his statements "constituted a risk to the validity of the election."

At midnight on Dec. 1, Calderón and Fox appeared together inside the presidential residence. In an unprecedented act, a voice declared Calderón as the new head of state, as Fox gave the presidential sash to a military cadet, who then presented it to Calderón.

Later in the day, Calderón appeared before Congress, where he recited the presidential oath, surrounded by fellow PAN members.

Political Players Top

President: Felipe Calderón - PAN

The President is elected to a six-year term by popular vote.

Legislative Branch: The Congreso de la Unión (Congress of the Union) has two chambers. The Cámara de Diputados (Chamber of Deputies) has 500 members elected to three-year terms; 300 are elected in single-seat constituencies, and 200 are elected by proportional representation. The Cámara de Senadores (Chamber of Senators) has 128 members elected to six-year terms; 96 are elected in three-seat constituencies, and 32 are elected by proportional representation. The 96 directly elected senators consist of the winning two-person ticket plus a third seat awarded to the first runner-up.

Results of Last Election: Top

President - Jul. 2, 2006

	Vote%
Felipe Calderón - National Action Party (PAN)	36.68%
Andrés Manuel López Obrador - Alliance for the Common Good Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) Workers Party (PT) Convergence for Democracy (CD)	36.11%
Roberto Madrazo - Alliance for Mexico Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) Green Environmentalist Party (PVEM)	22.71%
Patricia Mercado - Social-Democratic and Peasant Alternative Party (PASC)	2.76%
Roberto Campa - New Alliance Party (PNA)	0.97%

Chamber of Deputies - Jul. 2, 2006

	Vote%	Seats
National Action Party (PAN)	33.41%	206
Alliance for the Common Good Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) Workers Party (PT) Convergence for Democracy (CD)	28.99%	160
Alliance for Mexico Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) Green Environmentalist Party (PVEM)	28.18%	121
New Alliance Party (PNA)	4.55%	9
Social-Democratic and Peasant Alternative Party (PASC)	2.05%	4

Senate - Jul. 2, 2006

	Vote%	Seats
National Action Party (PAN)	33.63%	52
Alliance for the Common Good Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) Workers Party (PT) Convergence for Democracy (CD)	29.70%	36
Alliance for Mexico Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) Green Environmentalist Party (PVEM)	27.99%	38
New Alliance Party (PNA)	4.04%	1
Social-Democratic and Peasant Alternative Party (PASC)	1.91%	1

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