February 19, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Italy’s centre-right parties keep a slight edge in the early stages of the country’s legislative campaign, according to a poll by Coesis Research. 28 per cent of respondents would vote for a centre-right alliance led by former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, while 26 per cent would back a centre-left coalition led by former Rome mayor Walter Veltroni.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Italy’s centre-right parties keep a slight edge in the early stages of the country’s legislative campaign, according to a poll by Coesis Research. 28 per cent of respondents would vote for a centre-right alliance led by former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, while 26 per cent would back a centre-left coalition led by former Rome mayor Walter Veltroni.

In a second scenario, a centre-right coalition under conservative National Alliance (AN) leader Gianfranco Fini is first with 30 per cent, followed by the Veltroni-led centre-left with 27 per cent.

Italian voters renewed the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate in April 2006. The Union of centre-left parties, led by Romano Prodi, secured 348 seats in the lower house and 158 seats in the upper house. The victory put an end to the government of the centre-right House of Freedom (Casa), headed by Berlusconi.

In May 2006, Prodi was formally appointed as prime minister. The Union leader had previously served as head of government from May 1996 to October 1998. Last month, Prodi lost a confidence vote in Parliament and was forced to step down. After Senate president Franco Marini failed in his bid to form a caretaker administration, a legislative election was scheduled for Apr. 13 and Apr. 14. Prodi will not seek Italy’s premiership again.

In October 2007, Veltroni assembled the Democratic Party (PD) with several centre-left political organizations. In November, Berlusconi announced the creation of the Italian People of Freedom Party (PdL).

The PD will stand alone in the election. Veltroni has invited members of former allied, small parties to join the PD in order to avoid forming a heterogeneous coalition. The PD’s main contender will be Casa, which encompasses Berlusconi’s PdL, Fini’s AN, the Northern League (LN) and the Popular Alliance (UDEUR).

On Feb. 13, Berlusconi launched his campaign with a television appearance, saying, "I may be 71 but I feel and act as if I’m 35. (...) It seems that Silvio Berlusconi is indispensable."

Polling Data

Imagine an election takes place tomorrow an the choices are the centre-right led by (...) and the centre-left led by (....). Who would you vote for?

Option 1

Centre-right led by Silvio Berlusconi	28%
Centre-left led by Walter Veltroni	26%
Blank ballot / Spoiled ballot	7%
Would not vote	18%
Undecided	21%

Option 2

Centre-right led by Gianfranco Fini	30%
Centre-left led by Walter Veltroni	27%
Blank ballot / Spoiled ballot	7%
Would not vote	16%
Undecided	21%

Source: Coesis Research
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 804 Italian adults, conducted from Jan. 31 to Feb. 7, 2008. No margin of error was provided.