Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Very Close Race Developing in Australia

August 30, 2006

- Support for the Coalition of Liberals and Nationals remains steady in Australia, according to a Newspoll published in The Australian. 44 per cent of respondents would vote for the governing Coalition, while 42 per cent would support the opposition Australian Labor Party (ALP) in the next election.

The Australian Greens are third with five per cent. Australia's preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the ALP a two-point lead over the Coalition.

In the October 2004 election, prime minister John Howard was rewarded with a fourth term in office, as the Coalition secured 87 seats in the House of Representatives. The ALP—led by Mark Latham—elected 60 lawmakers. In January 2005, Kim Beazley took over as opposition leader. Beazley commanded the ALP from March 1996 to November 2001.

On Aug. 27, Howard discussed the topic of climate change, saying, "I accept the broad theory about global warming. I am sceptical about a lot of the more gloomy predictions."

On Aug. 28, Beazley criticized Howard's stance on the issue, declaring, "An Australian prime minister has to be able to look his fellow Australians in the eye and say 'I have done everything in my power to protect the Australian people in the environment we now confront.' Quite frankly, John Howard cannot look the Australian people in the eye and say that."

Polling Data

If a federal election to the House of Representatives were held today, which one of the following would you vote for? If "Uncommitted", to which one of these do you have a leaning?

Aug. 27

Aug. 13

Jul. 30

Coalition (Liberal / National)

44%

44%

43%

Australian Labor Party

42%

37%

40%

Australian Greens

5%

7%

5%

Others

9%

12%

12%

Two-Party Preferred Vote

Aug. 27

Aug. 13

Jul. 30

Australian Labor Party

51%

49%

50%

Coalition (Liberal / National)

49%

51%

50%

Source: Newspoll / The Australian
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,142 Australian voters, conducted from Aug. 25 to Aug. 27, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

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