Issue Watch
Track global public opinion on current issues.
- 2008: Race for the White House
- 2008: The U.S. Electoral College
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Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
U.S. 2008: Obama 47.1%, McCain 45.5%
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama is once again leading Republican John McCain in the United States presidential race, according to a review of ten voting intention surveys conducted over the past twelve days. 47.1 per cent of voters would support the Illinois senator in the election, while 45.5 per cent would back the Arizona senator.
Obama is ahead by at least three points in three of the polls. More than seven per cent of respondents remain undecided, or would vote for other candidates.
Obama has gained two points since the last ARGM Poll Average, while McCain has lost 1.1 points.
On Sept. 20, McCain criticized Obama, saying "We’ve heard a lot of words from Senator Obama. Maybe just this once he could spare us the lectures, and admit to his own poor judgment in contributing to these [economic] problems. The crisis on Wall Street started in the Washington culture of lobbying and influence peddling, and he was right square in the middle of it."
In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.
Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.
Polling Data
National Vote - 2008 U.S. Presidential Election
Contenders: John McCain (R), Barack Obama (D)
|
McCain |
Obama |
Other / Not sure |
|
|
ARGM Poll Average |
45.5% |
47.1% |
7.4% |
|
(10) Rasmussen Reports |
47% |
48% |
5% |
|
(9) Gallup |
44% |
50% |
6% |
|
(8) Diageo/Hotline |
44% |
45% |
11% |
|
(7) University of Wisconsin-Madison |
47% |
47% |
9% |
|
(6) CBS News / New York Times |
44% |
49% |
7% |
|
(5) Quinnipiac University |
45% |
49% |
6% |
|
(4) American Research Group |
48% |
45% |
3% |
|
(3) Ipsos / McClatchy |
45% |
45% |
10% |
|
(2) Pew Research Centre |
46% |
46% |
8% |
|
(1) Zogby International / Reuters |
45% |
47% |
8% |
(10) Rasmussen Reports - Rasmussen Reports - Telephone interviews with 3,000 likely American voters, conducted from Sept. 18 to Sept. 20, 2008. Margin of error is 2 per cent.
(9) Gallup - Telephone interviews with 2,756 registered American voters, conducted from Sept. 17 to Sept. 19, 2008. Margin of error is 2 per cent.
(8) Diageo/Hotline - Telephone interviews with 922 registered American voters, conducted from Sept. 17 to Sept. 19, 2008. Margin of error is 3.2 per cent.
(7) University of Wisconsin-Madison - Telephone interviews with 800 registered American voters, conducted from Sept. 11 to Sept. 18, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(6) CBS News / New York Times - Telephone interviews with 1,004 registered American voters, conducted from Sept. 12 to Sept. 16, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(5) Quinnipiac University Polling Institute - Telephone interviews with 987 likely American voters, conducted from Sept. 11 to Sept. 16, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.
(4) American Research Group - Telephone interviews with 1,200 likely American voters, conducted from Sept. 13 to Sept. 15, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(3) Ipsos / McClatchy Newspapers - Telephone interviews with 1,046 registered American voters, conducted from Sept. 11 to Sept. 15, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(2) Pew Research Centre for the People and the Press - Telephone interviews with 2,307 registered American voters, conducted from Sept. 9 to Sept. 14, 2008. Margin of error is 2.7 per cent.
(1) Zogby International / Reuters - Telephone interviews with 1,008 registered American voters, conducted from Sept. 11 to Sept. 13, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.
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