March 17, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - People in Ukraine are optimistic about their bilateral ties with Russia, according to a poll by FOM-Ukraine. 31.3 per cent of respondents think relations will be better over the next eight years, while 25.4 per cent think they will stay the same.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - People in Ukraine are optimistic about their bilateral ties with Russia, according to a poll by FOM-Ukraine. 31.3 per cent of respondents think relations will be better over the next eight years, while 25.4 per cent think they will stay the same.

A series of public demonstrations took place in Kiev after the November 2004 presidential run-off. The Ukrainian Supreme Court eventually invalidated the results of the second round, and ordered a special re-vote. Opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko—whose supporters wore orange-coloured clothing at events and rallies—received 51.99 per cent of all cast ballots, defeating Viktor Yanukovych.

In the 2006 legislative election, Yanukovych’s Party of Regions (PR) secured 186 seats in the Supreme Council. Yanukovych eventually became prime minister in a coalition government with the Socialist Party of Ukraine (SPU) and the Communist Party of Ukraine (KPU). After a long political stalemate and disagreements between the president and prime minister, a new legislative ballot took place in September 2007. Final results gave the "orange forces"—including the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and Yushchenko’s People’s Union-Our Ukraine (NS-NU)—228 seats. In December, Tymoshenko was ratified as prime minister.

Vladimir Putin was elected to a second term as Russia’s president in March 2004 with 71.31 per cent of all cast ballots. Dmitry Medvedev—Putin’s anointed candidate—won this month’s presidential election with 70.28 per cent of the vote. He is expected to be sworn in on May 7. 58.2 per cent of respondents in Ukraine say they trust Putin, while 28.1 per cent say they trust Medvedev.

Bilateral relations between Russia and Ukraine were strained in late December 2005 and early January 2006, when Ukraine was involved in a dispute over gas imports from Russia. The state-run Russian company Gazprom supplies a quarter of Ukraine’s gas. Russia was accused of manipulating its gas prices to punish the former Soviet republic.

Earlier this month, another row involving Gazprom saw Russia cutting its gas supply to Ukraine for three days. On Mar. 13, Gazprom chief executive Alexei Miller said the company had reached a deal with its Ukrainian counterpart, Naftogaz, and "signed an agreement on the development of relations in the gas sphere." Yushchenko welcomed the deal, but noted that it still had to be "assessed and accepted."

Polling Data

Do you think relations between Ukraine and Russia will be better, worse, or stay the same during the next eight years?

Better	31.3%
Stay the same	25.4%
Worse	17.4%
Not sure	25.9%

Do you trust Russian president Vladimir Putin?

Yes	58.2%
No	24.2%
Not sure	17.7%

Do you trust Russian president-elect Dmitry Medvedev?

Yes	28.1%
No	22.2%
Not sure	49.8%

Source: FOM-Ukraine
Methodology: Interviews with 2,000 Ukrainian adults, conducted from Feb. 20 to Mar. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 2.2 per cent.