March 28, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) candidate Morgan Tsvangirai is ahead of incumbent Robert Mugabe of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), according to a poll by the Mass Public Opinion Institute. 28.3 per cent of respondents in the African country would vote for Tsvangirai in tomorrow’s presidential election, while 20.3 per cent would back Mugabe.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) candidate Morgan Tsvangirai is ahead of incumbent Robert Mugabe of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), according to a poll by the Mass Public Opinion Institute. 28.3 per cent of respondents in the African country would vote for Tsvangirai in tomorrow’s presidential election, while 20.3 per cent would back Mugabe.

Former finance minister Simba Makoni is third with 8.6 per cent, followed by independent candidate Langton Towungana with one per cent. More than 30 per cent respondents refused to reveal their voting intention.

Zimbabwe’s government—headed by Mugabe since 1980—has been repeatedly criticized for human rights abuses. More than five million people have left Zimbabwe over the past decade, seeking refuge mostly in South Africa, Botswana and Mozambique. The country’s unemployment rate reaches 80 per cent according to recent estimates, with 68 per cent of the population living in poverty.

Tomorrow’s "harmonized" election will see voters choose a president, as well as members of the House of Assembly, Senate, and local councils.

On Mar. 20, Tsvangirai decried a plan to count all the ballots in a central location—instead of at each polling station—declaring, "I will not be part of an illegal process." The opposition has also stated that the names of dead people appear on the electoral roll.

Yesterday, Mugabe discussed his views on the election, saying, "When you join a political fight by way of an election, you must be prepared to lose. If ZANU-PF, wins, [the opposition] must accept it; if you win, we will accept."

Polling Data

Which candidate would you vote for in the presidential election?

Morgan Tsvangirai	28.3%
Robert Mugabe	20.3%
Simba Makoni	8.6%
Langton Towungana	1.0%
Other	1.9%
"Vote is secret"	23.5%
Refused	7.5%
Will not vote	5.4%
Not sure	4.4%

Source: Mass Public Opinion Institute
Methodology: Interviews with 1,693 Zimbabwean adults, conducted in March 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.