Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Tories With Wider Lead In Canada

June 21, 2004

(CPOD) Jun. 21, 2004 - The opposition Conservative party maintains the lead in Canada's federal election, according to a poll by Ipsos-Reid released by CTV and the Globe and Mail. 32 per cent of respondents would vote for the Conservatives, while 29 per cent would support the ruling Liberals.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 16 per cent, followed by the Bloc Québécois with 12 per cent and the Green party with seven per cent.

Canadian voters will renew the House of Commons on Jun. 28. The Liberal party achieved three straight majority governments under Jean Chrétien in 1993, 1997 and 2000. Current prime minister Paul Martin leads the ruling political organization into a federal election for the first time.

The last few days of the campaign have been dominated by a controversy over child pornography after an e-mail news release by the Conservatives—which was then re-worded—seemed to suggest that Martin supported child pornography. Tory leader Stephen Harper said Martin's record on the issue speaks of "failure to develop effective legislation that combats child pornography, and failure to pass even his own bills on the matter."

Martin said Harper's comments "were clearly out of line. It's unacceptable that he doesn't understand how harmful they are."

The poll's results suggest the Conservatives could win anywhere from 125 to 129 seats, while the Liberals would get 92 to 96. The Bloc would dominate the province of Quebec with 67 lawmakers. Parties must secure at least 155 seats to form a majority government.

Polling Data

What party would you vote for in the upcoming federal election?

 

Jun. 17

Jun. 13

Conservative

32%

32%

Liberal

29%

31%

New Democratic Party

16%

17%

Bloc Québécois

12%

12%

Green

7%

6%

Source: Ipsos-Reid / CTV / The Globe and Mail
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 1,000 Canadian adults, conducted on Jun. 16 and Jun. 17, 2004. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

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