December 13, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Britain’s opposition Conservative party stands at the top of the political ladder, according to a poll by Populus published in The Times. 40 per cent of respondents would back the Tories in the next election to the House of Commons, up four points since early November.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Britain’s opposition Conservative party stands at the top of the political ladder, according to a poll by Populus published in The Times. 40 per cent of respondents would back the Tories in the next election to the House of Commons, up four points since early November.

The governing Labour party is second with 32 per cent—down five points in a month—followed by the Liberal Democrats with 16 per cent. 11 per cent of respondents would vote for other parties.

In June, Gordon Brown officially became Labour leader and prime minister, replacing Tony Blair. Brown had worked as chancellor of the exchequer. Blair served as Britain’s prime minister since May 1997, winning majority mandates in the 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections to the House of Commons.

Since December 2005, David Cameron has been the leader of the Conservative party. In October, Cameron challenged Brown to call a snap election, but the prime minister later announced he would not hold an early ballot.

In March 2006, the Liberal Democrats chose foreign affairs spokesman Menzies Campbell as their new leader. On Oct. 15, Campbell tendered his resignation. A leadership ballot of party members is currently underway, and the new Lib-Dem leader will be announced on Dec. 17. Campbell’s possible successors are environment spokesman Chris Huhne and current parliamentarian Nick Clegg.

In June, the leaders of the 27 European Union (EU) member nations reached an agreement in Germany to create a new European Union Constitution Treaty (EUCT) before the end of this year, and achieve its ratification by mid-2009.

On Dec. 11, Brown announced he would travel to Portugal today to sign the Lisbon Treaty on behalf of Britain. A government statement said Brown "will attend some of the luncheons with other leaders and he will sign the treaty while he is there. He will also have a meeting with (Portuguese prime minister Jose) Socrates."

Conservative shadow foreign secretary William Hague expressed dismay, saying, "Some people say Gordon Brown’s problems are that he isn’t decisive and he lacks political courage. He couldn’t have done more to confirm that than this ridiculous fudge. (...) If he backs the renamed EU Constitution so much that he’s ready to break his manifesto promise, he should at least have the courage to be photographed doing it. If he’s ashamed of signing this Treaty then why doesn’t he honour his election promise and let the British people have their say?"

The next election to the House of Commons must be held on or before Jun. 3, 2010. Sitting prime ministers can dissolve Parliament and call an early ballot at their discretion.

Polling Data

If the general election was tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

	Dec. 9	Nov. 4	Oct. 7
Conservative	40%	36%	38%
Labour	32%	37%	40%
Liberal Democrats	16%	16%	12%
Other	11%	11%	10%

Source: Populus / The Times
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,506 British adults, conducted from Dec. 7 to Dec. 9, 2007. No margin of error was provided.