October 20, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The Conservative party holds a five-point lead in Canada, but few voters look forward to an early House of Commons ballot, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 34 per cent of respondents would vote for the governing Tories in the next federal election, up one point since August.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The Conservative party holds a five-point lead in Canada, but few voters look forward to an early House of Commons ballot, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 34 per cent of respondents would vote for the governing Tories in the next federal election, up one point since August.

The Liberal party is second with 29 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party with 17 per cent—down two points in two months—the Bloc Québécois with nine per cent, and the Green party also with nine per cent.

Canadians renewed the House of Commons in January 2006. The Conservative party—led by Stephen Harper—received 36.3 per cent of the vote, and secured 124 seats in the 308-member lower house. Harper leads a minority administration after more than 12 years of government by the Liberal party. In December 2006, former environment minister Stéphane Dion became the new leader of the Liberals.

On Oct. 16, the Tories presented their government plan in the traditional Speech from the Throne, read by governor-general Michaëlle Jean. Among other things, the Harper administration intends to extend the Canadian mission in Afghanistan until 2011, enact a further reduction in the Goods and Services Tax (GST), and introduce a single comprehensive anti-crime bill. During the speech, the government said Canada cannot meet the greenhouse gas emission targets set by the Kyoto Protocol, but vowed to "lead the world" in finding a solution to climate change.

On Oct. 17, Dion said the Liberals would not bring down the Conservative minority government, adding, "The throne speech we heard yesterday, with all of its weaknesses, has to be assessed in light of the fact that Canadians don’t want another election right now. They want Parliament to do its job. We are determined to make parliament work, in keeping with Canadians’ wishes." Only 22 per cent of respondents think the opposition should topple the Conservative government and force an election.

NDP leader Jack Layton expressed dismay at Dion’s rationale, saying, "The NDP will oppose this throne speech because our caucus has principles. We know what we believe. Our members will be in place for each and every vote, and we will rise when it is our turn to vote and demonstrate clearly our opposition to the wrong direction in which the government is taking Canada."

Polling Data

If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in your constituency?

	Oct. 2007	Aug. 2007	Jul. 2007	Jun. 2007
Conservative	34%	33%	33%	34%
Liberal	29%	29%	28%	27%
New Democratic Party	17%	19%	19%	19%
Bloc Québécois	9%	9%	9%	10%
Green	9%	9%	8%	8%
Other	2%	1%	3%	1%

From what you have seen, read or heard about the Speech from the Throne, how do you think the opposition parties in the House of Commons should react?

 

The opposition should approve the Speech from the Throne and avoid an election	34%
The opposition should topple the Conservative government and force an election	22%
Not sure	45%

Source: Angus Reid Strategies
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,018 Canadian adults, conducted on Oct. 16 and Oct. 17, 2007. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

Other poll highlights: At least 38 per cent of respondents are satisfied with Throne Speech plans for tax cuts, Canada’s role in the world, and Arctic sovereignty. At least 40 per cent are dissatisfied with proposals for the environment, the mission in Afghanistan and health care. 32 per cent of respondents think Stephen Harper would make the best prime minister, nine per cent choose Stéphane Dion, 45 per cent pick neither politician, and 14 per cent are undecided.

 

Complete Poll (PDF)

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