Polls & Research

Taiwanese Want Referendum on Deal with China

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Most people in Taiwan support holding a referendum on whether the country should enter an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with China, according to a poll by Taiwan Thinktank. 61.4 per cent of respondents think the people of Taiwan should have a say on the matter.

In 1895, following a military defeat, China ceded Taiwan to Japan. At the end of World War II, the island was returned to Chinese control. In 1949, as Mao Zedong’s communists were gaining prominence in mainland China, Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek established the Republic of China in Taiwan.

A series of democratic reforms implemented by Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui in the early 1990s allowed Taiwan’s residents to take part in free and fair elections. To this date, the People’s Republic of China considers Taiwan a "renegade province" and reserves the right to bring it under control.

In March 2008, Ma Ying-jeou won the presidential election with 58.45 of the vote as a candidate for the Kuomintang Party (KMT). Frank Hsieh of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) finished second with 41.55 per cent.

The KMT advocates for maintaining the status quo with the Chinese central government, while the DPP has aggressively pursued independence from Beijing.

The current government wants to improve commercial relations with the mainland. The DPP and the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) have called for a nationwide referendum on the government-sponsored ECFA, which they claim will threaten both Taiwan’s economy and sovereign status. President Ma believes a referendum is not required at this time, as the ECFA is a purely economic document with no political ramifications.

On Jun. 14, DPP chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen referred to the proposed vote, saying, "Whatever the content of the ECFA, it could decide on the future of Taiwan. Therefore, we demand the issues be voted on by the people."

Polling Data

Do you support or oppose holding a nationwide referendum on an eventual Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with China?

Support	61.4%
Oppose	28.1%

Source: Taiwan Thinktank
Methodology: Interviews with 1,080 Taiwanese adults, conducted on Jun. 24 and Jun. 25, 2009. Margin of error is 3 per cent.