(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The number of people in Colombia who would consider voting for incumbent Álvaro Uribe in the next presidential election has dramatically increased, according to a poll by YanHaas released by RCN. 82.65 per cent of respondents would vote for Uribe if he were in the candidate pool in 2010, up 25.81 points since March.

Former Medellín mayor Sergio Fajardo is a distant second with 3.76 per cent, followed by former Bogotá mayor Antanas Mockus with 2.20 per cent, opposition leftist Democratic Independent Pole (PDI) member Carlos Gaviria with 1.70 per cent, and Ingrid Betancourt—a former presidential candidate of dual French and Colombian citizenship—with 0.8 per cent.

Uribe has been Colombia’s president since August 2002. In the May 2006 election, he won a new four-year term with 62.2 per cent of all cast ballots. He was able to run again after pro-Uribe lawmakers in the House of Representatives and the Constitutional Court officially sanctioned a plan to allow immediate presidential re-election. After issuing its ruling, the court warned that the clause was not valid for the unlimited re-election of the head of state. Uribe would require a new constitutional amendment to run again.

Uribe has been commended for improving the economy and for his security policies, especially his hard stand against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a radical left-wing armed group. However, his administration is currently under great strain. Seventy-one lawmakers—the vast majority of whom are Uribe supporters—are being investigated for alleged ties with right-wing, illegal paramilitary armies; 31 of them are in jail. The accusations range from receiving the backing of war lords for electoral benefits, to directly participating in select killings and massacres for political or economic purposes. Uribe’s first cousin and close political ally, Mario Uribe, is one of the lawmakers currently under investigation.

On Jul. 2, Betancourt, three American citizens, and 11 Colombian army soldiers who had been kidnapped by the FARC were rescued by the Colombian army. The operation was deemed "unprecedented" in the South American country’s history because it was based on intelligence and infiltration methods, and no weapons were used.

On Jul. 25, Colombian senator Carlos García—leader of the pro-Uribe Party of the U and a vocal advocate for the current president’s re-election—was detained for his alleged use of paramilitary armies to intimidate voters. The arrest was ordered by Colombia’s Supreme Court.

An unnamed spokesman for Colombia’s attorney general’s office commented on the case, saying. "The accusation against the senator is that he used paramilitaries to help win elections and consolidate power in his home province of Tolima."

Polling Data

If the next presidential election were held today and incumbent Álvaro Uribe was among the candidates, which of the following people would you vote for?

Source: YanHaas / RCN
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 600 likely Colombian voters in the cities of Barranquilla, Bogotá, Bucaramanga, Cali and Medellin, conducted on Jul. 22, 2008. Margin of error is 5 per cent.

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