(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Support for the ratification of a new constitution is eroding in Ecuador, according to a poll by Cedatos/Gallup. 37 per cent of respondents would vote in favour of the proposed charter in an upcoming referendum, down four points since late May.

Conversely, 33 per cent of respondents would vote against adopting the draft, up two points in a month. Three-in-ten respondents are undecided.

Rafael Correa, a former finance minister, ran for president as an independent leftist under the Alliance Country (AP) banner. In November 2006, Correa defeated Álvaro Noboa of the conservative Institutional Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN) in a run-off with 56.69 per cent of the vote. He officially took over as Ecuador’s head of state in January 2007, and vowed to change the country’s Constitution. Correa’s party nominated no candidates to the National Congress.

In April 2007, Ecuadorian citizens participated in a referendum to enact a Constituent Assembly. The president’s proposal was backed by 82 per cent of all voters. In September, Correa’s supporters—running under the Movement Country (MP) banner—secured 80 seats in the 130-member Constituent Assembly, enough to enact changes without seeking compromises with political opponents.

In November, Ecuador’s Constituent Assembly officially began its work, and suspended the National Congress. The proposed Constitution must be ratified in a nationwide referendum in 2008. The Constituent Assembly has discussed a wide variety of topics, including the possibility of consecutive presidential re-election, as well as new oil and mining regulations.

On Jun. 6, Correa assured that the new Constitution will end "the dictatorship of free-market policies" by strengthening the government’s regulatory role. The president said that while "it would be crazy to eliminate the right to private property," the country has endured "the dictatorship of a market that has destroyed public institutions and planning" and requires "a strong State that can control and regulate the market."

Polling Data

How would you vote in the referendum to ratify the new constitution?

Source: Cedatos/Gallup
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,271 Ecuadorian adults, conducted from May 29 to Jun. 6, 2008. Margin of error is 3.3 per cent.

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