Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Super Tuesday (D): Hillary Leads in Seven States

February 04, 2008

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton heads to Super Tuesday as the favourite in seven states, according to a review of the latest voting intention polls conducted after the race for the Democratic Party’s United States presidential nomination became a two-person contest.

Along with Rodham Clinton, Illinois senator Barack Obama is still contending.

The surveys give Rodham Clinton the upper hand in the states of Arizona, Georgia, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, New York and Tennessee, while Obama is ahead in Connecticut and Illinois. There is no clear frontrunner in Alabama and California.

All of these polls were conducted after the withdrawal of former North Carolina senator John Edwards from the U.S. presidential contest.

In all, 22 states, American Samoa and Democrats Abroad will hold Democratic primaries or caucuses on Feb. 5, choosing 52 per cent of all pledged delegates.

Polling Data

U.S. Presidential Election 2008 - Super Tuesday Democratic Primaries

Contenders (in alphabetical order): Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama

Alabama

 

Clinton

Obama

(2) Rasmussen Reports - AL

46%

41%

(1) SurveyUSA - AL

47%

47%

(2) Rasmussen Reports - AL (576 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 31, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(1) SurveyUSA - AL (586 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 31, 2008, 4.1 MofE)

Arizona

 

Clinton

Obama

(2) Mason-Dixon - AZ

43%

41%

(1) Rasmussen Reports - AZ

46%

41%

(2) Mason-Dixon - AZ (400 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 31-Feb.1, 2008, 5.0 MofE)
(1) Rasmussen Reports - AZ (537 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 31, 2008, 4.0 MofE)

California

 

Clinton

Obama

(4) Zogby Internacional - CA

41%

45%

(3) Rasmussen Reports - CA

44%

45%

(2) Mason-Dixon - CA

45%

36%

(1) Field - CA

36%

34%

(4) Zogby International - CA (1,185 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 31-Feb.2, 2008, 2.9 MofE)
(3) Rasmussen Reports - CA (798 likely Democratic primary voters, Feb. 2, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(2) Mason-Dixon - CA (400 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 31-Feb.1,, 2008, 5.0 MofE)
(1) Field - CA (511 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 25-Feb. 1, 2008, 4.5 MofE - John Edwards voters were re-interviewed after Edwards withdrew from the race)

Connecticut

 

Clinton

Obama

(1) SurveyUSA - CT

44%

48%

(1) SurveyUSA - CT (679 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 30-31, 2008, 3.8 MofE)

Georgia

 

Clinton

Obama

(5) Rasmussen Reports - GA

37%

52%

(4) Insider Advantage - GA

36%

51%

(3) Zogby International - GA

28%

48%

(2) Mason-Dixon - GA

41%

47%

(1) Insider Advantage - GA

36%

52%

(5) Rasmussen Reports - GA (542 likely Democratic primary voters, Feb. 2, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(4) Insider Advantage - GA (342 likely Democratic primary voters, Feb. 2, 2008, 5.0 MofE)
(3) Zogby International - GA (940 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 31-Feb.2, 2008, 3.3 MofE)
(2) Mason-Dixon - GA (400 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 31-Feb.1,, 2008, 5.0 MofE)
(1) Insider Advantage - GA (301 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 30, 2008, 5.0 MofE)

Illinois

 

Clinton

Obama

(1) Chicago Tribune / WGN - IL

24%

55%

(1) Chicago Tribune / WGN - IL (500 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 29-Jan. 31, 2008, 4.4 MofE)

Massachusetts

 

Clinton

Obama

(1) SurveyUSA - MA

57%

33%

(1) SurveyUSA - MA (575 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 30, 2008, 4.1 MofE)

Missouri

 

Clinton

Obama

(4) Zogby Intetnational - MO

44%

43%

(3) Mason-Dixon - MO

47%

41%

(2) Rasmussen Reports - MO

47%

39%

(1) SurveyUSA - MO

48%

44%

(4) Zogby International - MO (877 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 31-Feb.2, 2008, 3.4 MofE)
(3) Mason-Dixon - MO (400 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 31-Feb.1,, 2008, 5.0 MofE)
(2) Rasmussen Reports - MO (507 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 31, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(1) SurveyUSA - MO (664 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 30-31, 2008, 3.9 MofE)

New Jersey

 

Clinton

Obama

(5) Zogby International - NJ

43%

42%

(4) Monmouth University - NJ

50%

36%

(3) Mason-Dixon - NJ

46%

39%

(2) Survey USA - NJ

51%

39%

(1) Rasmussen Reports - NJ

49%

37%

(5) Zogby International - NJ (868 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 31-Feb.2, 2008, 3.4 MofE)
(4) Monmouth University - NJ (718 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 31-Feb.1,, 2008, 3.5 MofE)
(3) Mason-Dixon - NJ (400 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 31-Feb.1,, 2008, 5.0 MofE)
(2) Survey USA – NJ (950 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 30-31, 2008, 3.2 MofE)
(1) Rasmussen Reports – NJ (785 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 30, 2008, 4.0 MofE)

New York

 

Clinton

Obama

(3) Rasmussen Reports - NY

52%

34%

(2) Marist College - NY

54%

38%

(1) Survey USA - NY

54%

38%

(3) Rasmussen Reports - NY (799 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 31-Feb. 1, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(2) Marist College - NY (660 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 31-Feb. 1, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(1) Survey USA - NY (462 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 30-31, 2008, 4.6 MofE)

Tennessee

 

Clinton

Obama

(3) Insider Advantage - TN

55%

35%

(2) Rasmussen Reports - TN

49%

35%

(1) Insider Advantage - TN

59%

26%

(3) Insider Advantage - TN (485 likely Democratic primary voters, Feb. 2, 2008, 5.0 MofE)
(2) Rasmussen Reports - TN (448 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 30, 2008, 5.0 MofE)
(1) Insider Advantage - TN (463 likely Democratic primary voters, Jan. 30, 2008, 4.7 MofE)

 

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