(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The governing Conservative party is leading Canada’s federal political scene, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies released by the Toronto Star. 36 per cent of respondents would vote for the Tories in the next election to the House of Commons, while 28 per cent would support the Liberal party.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 18 per cent, followed by the Bloc Québécois with nine per cent, and the Green party with eight per cent.

Canadians renewed the House of Commons in January 2006. The Conservative party—led by Stephen Harper—received 36.3 per cent of the vote, and secured 124 seats in the 308-member lower house. Harper leads a minority administration after more than 12 years of government by the Liberal party. In December 2006, former environment minister Stéphane Dion became the new leader of the Liberals.

The next federal election in Canada is scheduled for October 2009, but there is growing speculation that a snap ballot would take place on Oct. 14.

On Aug. 27, Harper predicted the outcome of an early election, saying, "My expectation would be that we will have another minority. I think that’s the reality of the current political environment. (...) It certainly will give whoever wins that election, hopefully ourselves, that mandate to proceed and to proceed quite aggressively for some period of time."

On Aug. 29, Dion criticized the government’s management of the economy, declaring, "Stephen Harper and [finance minister] Jim Flaherty continue to talk about how good the ‘fundamentals’ are in Canada in spite of the fact that by any economic definition Canada is slumping."

Polling Data

If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in your constituency?

Source: Angus Reid Strategies / Toronto Star
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,012 Canadian adults, conducted on Aug. 27 and Aug. 28, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

Other poll highlights:

Approval Ratings: Harper 32%, Dion 11%
Preferred Prime Minister: Harper 36%, Dion 13%, Neither 35%
Momentum Score: Harper -20, Dion -19
52% do not want to hold an early election this year
Harper defeats Dion on seven qualities and characteristics

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