Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Slump Apparently Over for Canada’s Liberals

June 30, 2005

(Angus Reid Global Scan) - The Liberal party is once again the leading political organization in Canada, according to a poll by Pollara Inc. 36 per cent of respondents would vote for the Liberals in the next federal election.

The Conservative party is second with 29 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 18 per cent and the Bloc Québécois with 11 per cent. Support for the Grits increased by five since May, while backing for the Tories dropped by seven per cent.

Liberal leader Paul Martin took over as Canada's prime minister in December 2003. In the June 2004 election, the Liberals secured a minority government with 135 seats in the House of Commons. Last year, Martin called a public inquiry into the federal sponsorship program—initiated during the tenure of prime minister Jean Chrétien to promote Canada in Quebec—after auditor-general Sheila Fraser concluded that approximately $75 million U.S. of the program's budget was paid to Liberal-friendly advertising firms for little or no work.

Justice John Gomery was put in charge of the investigation, which is expected to conclude in December 2005. On Apr. 21 in an uncommon televised address, Martin argued for the completion of the inquiry, saying, "Let the facts come out and then the people of Canada will have their say."

On Jun. 28, the House of Commons passed a bill that legalizes same-sex marriage in the entire country after a 158-133 vote. Most Liberal, Bloc and NDP members supported the legislation. The bill now heads to the Senate, where 64 of the 96 appointed members are Liberals.

Yesterday, Martin explained his government's rationale on same-sex marriage, saying, "In a country of minorities, it is crucial that the rights of the minorities be protected and that they not be subject of political whim." Conservative leader Stephen Harper—who had vowed to "promote the traditional definition of marriage"—declared, "I think it will be an issue to come to Canadians in the next election and there will be a chance to revisit this in a future Parliament. (...) My views haven't changed because Mr. Martin made a deal with the Bloc."

Polling Data

If a Canadian federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?

 

Jun. 2005

May 2005

Jan. 2005

Liberal

36%

31%

38%

Conservative

29%

36%

28%

New Democratic Party

18%

17%

13%

Bloc Québécois

11%

15%

11%

Source: Pollara Inc.
Methodology: Interviews to 1,263 Canadian adults, conducted from Jun. 20 to Jun. 25, 2005. Margin of error is 2.8 per cent.

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