May 18, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The governing Australian Labor Party (ALP) has lost public support this month, according to a poll by Roy Morgan International. 47 per cent of respondents would vote for the ALP in the next election to the House of Representatives, down eight points since mid-April.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The governing Australian Labor Party (ALP) has lost public support this month, according to a poll by Roy Morgan International. 47 per cent of respondents would vote for the ALP in the next election to the House of Representatives, down eight points since mid-April.

The opposition Coalition of Liberals and Nationals is second with 37 per cent, followed by the Australian Greens with nine per cent, and Family First with one per cent. Australia’s preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the ALP a 16-point lead over the Coalition.

Australia held a federal election in November 2007. Final results gave the ALP 85 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives. ALP leader Kevin Rudd was officially sworn in as prime minister in December, bringing an end to the 11-year tenure of Liberal leader John Howard as head of Australia’s government.

Howard failed to retain his seat in the Bennelong constituency and stepped down as Liberal leader. Brendan Nelson—a former defence minister—defeated former environment minister Malcolm Turnbull in an internal leadership ballot by just three votes.

On May 13, treasurer Wayne Swan unveiled the ALP government’s first annual budget, which included a forecast surplus of around $20.5 billion U.S. for 2008-2009, and a reduction in public spending of close to $30 billion U.S. over the next four years. Rudd expressed satisfaction with the spending plan, declaring, "We have generated a surplus which is the second-highest for a decade."

Polling Data

If a federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today, which party would receive your first preference?

	May 11	Apr. 17	Apr. 3
Australian Labor Party	47%	55%	51%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	37%	33%	34%
Australian Greens	9%	6%	7.5%
Family First	1%	1%	2%
Others	6%	5%	5.5%

Two-Party Preferred Vote

	May 11	Apr. 17	Apr. 3
Australian Labor Party	58%	64%	61.5%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	42%	36%	38.5%

Source: Roy Morgan International
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 618 Australian voters, conducted from May 7 to May 11, 2008. No margin of error was provided.