December 24, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Few people in Russia believe the country’s liberal opposition groups will be able to nominate a single presidential candidate in next year’s election, according to a poll by the Yury Levada Analytical Center. Only 23 per cent of respondents think the different parties—including Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces (SPS)—will agree on a sole contender.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Few people in Russia believe the country’s liberal opposition groups will be able to nominate a single presidential candidate in next year’s election, according to a poll by the Yury Levada Analytical Center. Only 23 per cent of respondents think the different parties—including Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces (SPS)—will agree on a sole contender.

Vladimir Putin was elected to a second term as president in March 2004 with 71.31 per cent of all cast ballots. In April 2005, Putin ruled out seeking a new mandate, saying, "I will not change the constitution and in line with the constitution, you cannot run for president three times in a row." The next presidential election in Russia is scheduled for Mar. 2, 2008.

Russian voters renewed the State Duma on Dec. 2. United Russia (YR)—whose candidate list was headed by Putin—secured 64.1 per cent of the vote and 315 of the legislature’s 450 seats. Under the country’s recently implemented proportional representation system, only three other political organizations—the Communist Party (KPRF), the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) and A Just Russia—elected lawmakers to the lower house.

Earlier this month, Putin endorsed current deputy prime minister Dmitry Medvedev as a presidential candidate, and Medvedev said it would be of the "utmost importance" to have Putin as head of government.

In November, the SPS nominated Boris Nemtsov—one of the architects of post-Soviet economic reform in Russia, and a deputy prime minister during the presidency of Boris Yeltsin—as its presidential candidate.

On Dec. 14, Yabloko deputy chairman Sergei Mitrokhin announced that Vladimir Bukovsky—a Soviet-era dissident who resides in London, England—would be the party’s presidential nominee, adding, "Yabloko is ready to boycott the election, to not participate as a response to what happened on Dec. 2—to the lawlessness that was conducted instead of elections."

On Dec. 22, Bukovsky’s bid was rejected by the Central Election Commission (CEC), because he has not lived in Russia for the past 10 years. So far, six candidates—Medvedev, Nemtsov, former prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov, independent Andrei Bogdanov, KPRF leader Gennady Zyuganov, and LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky—remain in the race.

Polling Data

Do you think the liberal opposition groups—including Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces (SPS)—will be able to put forward a single presidential candidate next year?

Yes	23%
No	40%
Hard to answer	37%

Source: Yury Levada Analytical Center
Methodology: Interviews with 1,600 Russian adults, conducted from Dec. 7 to Dec. 10, 2007. No margin of error was provided.