May 28, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Public support for governing centre-right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) increased in France, according to a poll by BVA released by Orange. 42 per cent of respondents would vote for the UMP in next month's National Assembly election, up seven points since early May.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Public support for governing centre-right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) increased in France, according to a poll by BVA released by Orange. 42 per cent of respondents would vote for the UMP in next month's National Assembly election, up seven points since early May.

In addition, 30 per cent of respondents would vote for the centre-left Socialist Party (PS), the Left Radical Party (PRG), or the Citizen's Republican Movement (MRC). The Democratic Movement (MD) is third with nine per cent, followed by the far-right National Front (FN) with five per cent. Support is lower for the Workers' Struggle (LO) and the Revolutionary Communist League (LCR), the Greens (Verts), and the French Communist Party (PCF).

In the 2002 election to the National Assembly, the UMP received 33.3 per cent of the vote and secured 357 seats in the 577-member lower house. The PS was second, with 24.1 per cent and 141 mandates. The next election is scheduled for Jun. 10 and Jun. 17.

On May 6, UMP candidate and former interior minister Nicolas Sarkozy won the presidential run-off with 53.06 per cent of the vote. Sarkozy was sworn in on May 16. On May 17, the president appointed François Fillon as prime minister. Fillon had been Sarkozy's adviser in the UMP for over two years, and was also his presidential campaign leader.

On May 21, Sarkozy met with representatives from nine environmental groups and declared it is "time for action" to tackle global warming. The president said after the meeting that an environmental conference will take place in October involving other actors and industries, adding, "We will not agree on all subjects. There will be points of divergence, but I don't want difficult subjects to be dodged."

Polling Data

Which of these parties' candidates would you support in the National Assembly election?

	May 22	May 7
Union for a Popular Movement (UMP)	42%	35%
Socialist Party (PS), Left Radical Party (PRG) or Citizens' Republican Movement (MRC)	30%	30%
Democratic Movement (MD)	9%	9%
National Front (FN)	5%	8%
Workers' Struggle (LO) or Revolutionary Communist League (LCR)	4.5%	5%
The Greens (Les Verts)	3.5%	6%
French Communist Party (PCF)	3%	3%
Other right parties	3%	4%

Source: BVA / Orange
Methodology: Interviews with 865 registered French voters, conducted on May 21 and May 22, 2007. No margin of error was provided.