(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The opposition Australian Labor Party (ALP) could emerge victorious after this Saturday’s election to the House of Representatives, according to a poll by Roy Morgan International. 46.5 per cent of respondents would vote for the ALP in the ballot, while 40 per cent would support the ruling Coalition of Liberals and Nationals.

The Australian Greens are third with eight per cent. Support is lower for the Australian Democrats, Family First, and One Nation. Australia’s preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the ALP an eight-point lead over the Coalition.

In the October 2004 election, Howard was rewarded with a fourth term in office, as the Coalition secured 87 seats in the House of Representatives. The ALP—led by Mark Latham—elected 60 lawmakers. In December 2006, foreign affairs spokesman Kevin Rudd became the new leader of the ALP, defeating Kim Beazley in an internal caucus ballot.

In 1998, several countries agreed to the Kyoto Protocol, a proposed amendment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The agreement commits nations to reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Australia has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol.

Yesterday, Rudd vowed to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, adding, "I want to simply demonstrate that we have gone from outside the tent to inside the tent, I think it is important to make that statement." Howard disagreed with Rudd’s promise, saying, "The world is not coming to an end tomorrow. Like all of these things we have to get a common sense, balanced approach. You need a new international agreement that includes countries like China."

A legislative election is scheduled for Nov. 24.

Polling Data

What party would you vote for in the next election to the House of Representatives?

Two-Party Preferred Vote

Source: Roy Morgan International
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,670 Australian voters, conducted from Nov. 15 to Nov. 17, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

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