April 10, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The governing Australian Labor Party (ALP) remains ahead in the country’s federal political scene, according to a poll by Roy Morgan International. 51 per cent of respondents would back the ALP in the next election to the House of Representatives.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The governing Australian Labor Party (ALP) remains ahead in the country’s federal political scene, according to a poll by Roy Morgan International. 51 per cent of respondents would back the ALP in the next election to the House of Representatives.

The Coalition of Liberals and Nationals is second with 34 per cent, followed by the Australian Greens with 7.5 per cent, and Family First with two per cent. Australia’s preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the ALP a 23-point lead over the Coalition.

Australia held a federal election in November 2007. Final results gave the ALP 85 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives. ALP leader Kevin Rudd was officially sworn in as prime minister in December, bringing an end to the 11-year tenure of Liberal leader John Howard as head of Australia’s government.

Howard failed to retain his seat in the Bennelong constituency and stepped down as Liberal leader. Brendan Nelson—a former defence minister—defeated former environment minister Malcolm Turnbull in an internal leadership ballot by just three votes.

On Apr. 6, Nelson urged two key members of the Howard administration—former treasurer Peter Costello and former foreign minister Alexander Downer—to keep their seats in the lower house, saying, "I’d like them to stay. In the case of both of these men, the amount of experience they’ve acquired in a long period of time, particularly Downer as the longest-serving foreign minister and a valuable resource when it comes to foreign policy, (as) Peter Costello is in treasury and finance."

Polling Data

If a federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today, which party would receive your first preference?

	Apr. 3	Mar. 23	Mar. 9
Australian Labor Party	51%	55%	55.5%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	34%	31%	30.5%
Australian Greens	7.5%	7%	9%
Family First	2%	3%	1.5%
Others	5.5%	4%	3.5%

Two-Party Preferred Vote

	Apr. 3	Mar. 23	Mar. 9
Australian Labor Party	61.5%	63.5%	65.5%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	38.5%	36.5%	34.5%

Source: Roy Morgan International
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 2,019 Australian voters, conducted on Mar. 25, Mar. 26, Apr. 2 and Apr. 3, 2008. No margin of error was provided.