June 30, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Australia’s governing party has gained public support this month, according to a poll by Roy Morgan International. 52 per cent of respondents would vote for the Australian Labor Party (ALP) in the next election to the House of Representatives, up 3.5 points since early June.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Australia’s governing party has gained public support this month, according to a poll by Roy Morgan International. 52 per cent of respondents would vote for the Australian Labor Party (ALP) in the next election to the House of Representatives, up 3.5 points since early June.

The Coalition of Liberals and Nationals is second with 34 per cent, followed by the Australian Greens with eight per cent, and Family First with 1.5 per cent. Australia’s preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the ALP a 23-point lead over the Coalition.

Australia held a federal election in November 2007. Final results gave the ALP 85 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives. ALP leader Kevin Rudd was officially sworn in as prime minister in December, bringing an end to the 11-year tenure of Liberal leader John Howard as head of Australia’s government.

Howard failed to retain his seat in the Bennelong constituency and stepped down as Liberal leader. Brendan Nelson—a former defence minister—defeated former environment minister Malcolm Turnbull in an internal leadership ballot by just three votes.

On Jun. 27, Rudd dismissed recent calls for his party to re-think its opposition to nuclear energy—including some made by ALP supporters—saying, "On the question of nuclear, we believe that we have a huge range of energy options available to Australia beyond nuclear with which and through which we can respond to the climate change challenge."

There are currently three operating uranium mines in the country: the Olympic Dam and Beverley in South Australia, and Ranger in the Northern Territory. While Australia is the second largest producer of uranium in the world, it has no nuclear power plants and generates its domestic energy mainly from coal.

Polling Data

If a federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today, which party would receive your first preference?

	Jun. 22	Jun. 8	Jun. 1
Australian Labor Party	52%	48.5%	52.5%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	34%	36%	31.5%
Australian Greens	8%	8.5%	9%
Family First	1.5%	2%	2%
Others	4.5%	5%	5%

Two-Party Preferred Vote

	Jun. 22	Jun. 8	Jun. 1
Australian Labor Party	61.5%	59%	63.5%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	38.5%	41%	36.5%

Source: Roy Morgan International
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,746 Australian voters, conducted on Jun. 14, Jun. 15, Jun. 21 and Jun. 22, 2008. No margin of error was provided.