February 06, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - John McCain is the most popular contender in the national race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in the United States, according to a review of seven public opinion polls conducted just before Super Tuesday. 49.1 per cent of decided Republican supporters would back the Arizona senator in a primary.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - John McCain is the most popular contender in the national race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in the United States, according to a review of seven public opinion polls conducted just before Super Tuesday. 49.1 per cent of decided Republican supporters would back the Arizona senator in a primary.

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is second with 24.6 per cent, followed by former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee with 19.2 per cent, and Texas congressman Ron Paul with 7.1 per cent.

After the first seven Republican presidential caucuses and primaries have been held, McCain has secured the support of 97 pledged delegates and unpledged members of the Republican National Committee (RNC), followed by Romney with 74, Huckabee with 29, and Paul with six.

On Feb. 4, McCain discussed his views on the future of the coalition effort in Iraq, saying, "We’ll have arrangements with Iraq—the same kind we’ve made with a number of countries. Some countries, such as Saudi Arabia, we left. There are other countries, because of our relationship, like Turkey, we stayed. It’s agreements between countries, we all know that. (...) America as a world superpower has to have power around the world."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

U.S. Presidential Election 2008 - National Support for Republicans

Contenders (in alphabetical order): Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney.

Note: Rudy Giuliani and Alan Keyes were only included in some surveys.

National Support

	Huckabee	McCain	Paul	Romney
ARGM Poll of Polls	19.2%	49.1%	7.1%	24.6%
(6) Opinion Research / CNN	18%	44%	6%	14%
(5) RT Strategies / Cook	18%	39%	6%	24%
(4) CBS News	12%	46%	9%	23%
(3) Gallup / USA Today	18%	42%	5%	24%
(2) Pew Research Center	20%	42%	5%	22%
(1) ABC News / Washington Post	16%	48%	7%	24%

(6) Opinion Research Corporation / CNN (412 registered Republican voters, Feb. 1-3, 2008, 5.0 MofE)
(5) RT Strategies / Cook Political Report (308 registered Republican voters, Jan. 31-Feb. 2, 2008, 5.6 MofE)
(4) CBS News (325 registered Republican voters, Jan. 30-Feb. 2, 2008, 6.0 MofE)
(3) Gallup / USA Today (867 registered Republican voters, Jan. 30-Feb. 2, 2008, 4.0 MofE)
(2) Pew Research Center for the People and the Press (513 registered Republican voters, Jan. 30-Feb. 2, 2008, 5.0 MofE)
(1) ABC News / Washington Post (Likely Republican primary voters among 1,249 American adults, Jan. 30-Feb. 1, 2008, No MofE)