February 02, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - John McCain has become the frontrunner in the national race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in the United States, according to a poll by Opinion Dynamics released by Fox News. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for the Arizona senator in a primary, up 31 points since mid-December.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - John McCain has become the frontrunner in the national race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in the United States, according to a poll by Opinion Dynamics released by Fox News. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for the Arizona senator in a primary, up 31 points since mid-December.

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is second with 20 per cent, followed by former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee with 19 per cent, and Texas congressman Ron Paul with five per cent.

After the first seven Republican presidential caucuses and primaries have been held, McCain has secured the support of 97 pledged delegates and unpledged members of the Republican National Committee (RNC), followed by Romney with 74, Huckabee with 29, and Paul with six.

On Jan. 31, Romney said he would be a better choice than McCain in a general election, saying, "People are going to stop and say, ‘Who is going to post-up best against Hillary Clinton, who is going to post-up best against Barack Obama, who can talk about change, who can talk about the future, who represents the past, and who represents the future?’"

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (Republicans and Republican leaners)

	Jan. 31	Dec. 19	Nov. 14
John McCain	48%	19%	17%
Mitt Romney	20%	11%	8%
Mike Huckabee	19%	19%	8%
Ron Paul	5%	3%	3%
Rudy Giuliani	n.a.	20%	33%
Fred Thompson	n.a.	10%	12%
Duncan Hunter	n.a.	2%	3%
Tom Tancredo	n.a.	1%	1%
Other	--	--	--
Not sure	5%	13%	13%
Would not vote	2%	1%	2%

Source: Opinion Dynamics / Fox News
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 900 registered American voters, conducted on Jan. 30 and Jan. 31, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.