February 13, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - John McCain holds the upper hand in the national race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in the United States, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 46 per cent of respondents would back the Arizona senator in a primary.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - John McCain holds the upper hand in the national race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in the United States, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 46 per cent of respondents would back the Arizona senator in a primary.

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is second with 34 per cent, followed by Texas congressman Ron Paul with eight per cent.

After the first 30 Republican presidential caucuses and primaries have been held, McCain has secured the support of 723 pledged delegates and unpledged members of the Republican National Committee (RNC), followed by Huckabee with 217, and Paul with 16.

On Feb. 8, Paul discussed his campaign, saying, "With (Mitt) Romney gone, the chances of a brokered convention are nearly zero. But that does not affect my determination to fight on, in every caucus and primary remaining, and at the convention for our ideas, with just as many delegates as I can get. But with so many primaries and caucuses now over, we do not now need so big a national campaign staff, and so I am making it leaner and tighter."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

Republican Presidential Primary Contenders

	Feb. 10	Jan. 27	Jan. 20
John McCain	46%	27%	23%
Mike Huckabee	34%	17%	19%
Ron Paul	8%	5%	3%
Mitt Romney	n.a.	26%	19%
Rudy Giuliani	n.a.	12%	9%
Fred Thompson	n.a.	n.a.	11%

Source: Rasmussen Reports
Methodology: Telephone interviews with approximately 1,100 likely Republican primary voters, conducted from Feb. 4 to Feb. 10, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.