January 22, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - John McCain remains the top contender in the national race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in the United States, according to a poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. 29 per cent of respondents say the Arizona senator is their first choice for president.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - John McCain remains the top contender in the national race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in the United States, according to a poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. 29 per cent of respondents say the Arizona senator is their first choice for president.

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is second with 20 per cent, followed by former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney with 17 per cent, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani with 13 per cent, actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson with nine per cent, and Texas congressman Ron Paul with six per cent.

After the first six Republican presidential caucuses and primaries have been held, Romney has secured the support of 72 pledged delegates and unpledged members of the Republican National Committee (RNC), followed by McCain with 38, Huckabee with 29, Thompson with eight, Paul with six, and Giuliani with two.

On Jan. 20, actor Chuck Norris—who supports Huckabee—suggested that McCain is too old to serve as the next head of state, saying, "If John takes over the presidency at 72 and he ages 3-to-1, how old will he be in four years? Eighty-four years old—and can he handle that kind of pressure in that job? (...) That’s why I didn’t pick John to support, because I’m just afraid the vice-president will wind up taking over his job within that four-year presidency."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

I’m going to read you the names of some possible Republican presidential candidates. Who would you most like to see nominated as the Republican Party’s candidate for president in 2008?

	Jan. 2008	Dec. 2007	Nov. 2007
John McCain	29%	22%	17%
Mike Huckabee	20%	17%	11%
Mitt Romney	17%	12%	13%
Rudy Giuliani	13%	20%	26%
Fred Thompson	9%	9%	13%
Ron Paul	6%	4%	4%
Duncan Hunter	n.a.	1%	1%
Tom Tancredo	n.a.	n.a.	--
Other	--	1%	1%
None	1%	2%	3%
Not sure	5%	10%	11%

Source: Pew Research Center for the People and the Press
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 499 registered Republicans or Republican leaners, conducted from Jan. 9 to Jan. 13, 2008. Margin of error is 5 per cent.