January 29, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The national race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in the United States has become a two-man contest, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 27 per cent of respondents would vote for Arizona senator John McCain in a primary, while 26 per cent would back former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The national race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in the United States has become a two-man contest, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 27 per cent of respondents would vote for Arizona senator John McCain in a primary, while 26 per cent would back former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is third with 17 per cent, followed by former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani with 12 per cent, and Texas congressman Ron Paul with five per cent.

After the first six Republican presidential caucuses and primaries have been held, Romney has secured the support of 73 pledged delegates and unpledged members of the Republican National Committee (RNC), followed by McCain with 38, Huckabee with 29, Paul with six, and Giuliani with two.

Yesterday in Florida, Giuliani discussed foreign policy with Cuban-Americans, saying, "You brought with you what’s inside your soul, and no tyrant, no dictator, no bully can take that away from you. The Cuban-American story shows that freedom prevails over oppression."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

Republican Presidential Primary Contenders

	Jan. 27	Jan. 20	Jan. 6
John McCain	27%	23%	19%
Mitt Romney	26%	19%	17%
Mike Huckabee	17%	19%	19%
Rudy Giuliani	12%	9%	14%
Ron Paul	5%	3%	5%
Fred Thompson	n.a.	11%	12%
Duncan Hunter	n.a.	n.a.	2%

Source: Rasmussen Reports
Methodology: Telephone interviews with approximately 1,100 likely Republican primary voters, conducted from Jan. 21 to Jan. 27, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.