January 24, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - John McCain holds a slight advantage in the national race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in the United States, according to a poll by Ipsos-Public Affairs released by the Associated Press. 22 per cent of respondents would vote for the Arizona senator in a primary.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - John McCain holds a slight advantage in the national race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in the United States, according to a poll by Ipsos-Public Affairs released by the Associated Press. 22 per cent of respondents would vote for the Arizona senator in a primary.

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee are tied for second with 16 per cent, followed by former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani with 14 per cent, actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson—who has since withdrawn from the race—with nine per cent, and Texas congressman Ron Paul with four per cent.

After the first six Republican presidential caucuses and primaries have been held, Romney has secured the support of 72 pledged delegates and unpledged members of the Republican National Committee (RNC), followed by McCain with 38, Huckabee with 29, Thompson with eight, Paul with six, and Giuliani with two.

Yesterday, retired general Norman Schwarzkopf—who commanded the coalition forces in the 1991 Gulf War—endorsed McCain, saying, "(He) has served our country with honour in war and in peace. He has demonstrated the type of courageous leadership our country sorely needs at this time. For that reason, he has my complete support."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

If the 2008 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were (the following), for whom would you vote?
(Republicans and Republican leaners only)

	Jan. 2008	Dec. 2007	Nov. 2007
John McCain	22%	13%	13%
Mitt Romney	16%	12%	12%
Mike Huckabee	16%	18%	10%
Rudy Giuliani	14%	26%	29%
Fred Thompson	9%	11%	19%
Ron Paul	4%	3%	n.a.
Other	1%	1%	2%
None	8%	7%	7%
Not sure	10%	9%	8%

Source: Ipsos-Public Affairs / Associated Press
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,010 American adults, conducted from Jan. 15 to Jan. 17, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.