January 26, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Public support for John McCain as a possible Republican Party presidential nominee has increased in the United States, according to a poll by Bloomberg and the Los Angeles Times. 22 per cent of respondents would vote for the Arizona senator in a primary, up 11 points since December.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Public support for John McCain as a possible Republican Party presidential nominee has increased in the United States, according to a poll by Bloomberg and the Los Angeles Times. 22 per cent of respondents would vote for the Arizona senator in a primary, up 11 points since December.

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is second with 18 per cent, followed by former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney with 17 per cent, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani with 12 per cent, actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson with 10 per cent, Texas congressman Ron Paul with six per cent, and California congressman Duncan Hunter with one per cent. Thompson and Hunter have withdrawn from the race.

After the first six Republican presidential caucuses and primaries have been held, Romney has secured the support of 72 pledged delegates and unpledged members of the Republican National Committee (RNC), followed by McCain with 38, Huckabee with 29, Thompson with eight, Paul with six, and Giuliani with two.

On Jan. 24, Romney expressed satisfaction with his campaign, saying, "I’ve raised more money than any other Republican in this race—raised more. Friends of mine have come together, people I knew in high school and helped raised money for me."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

If the Republican primary or caucus for president were being held in your state today and the candidates were (the following), for whom would you vote?

	Jan. 2008	Dec. 2007	Oct. 2007
John McCain	22%	11%	13%
Mike Huckabee	18%	17%	7%
Mitt Romney	17%	9%	11%
Rudy Giuliani	12%	23%	32%
Fred Thompson	10%	14%	15%
Ron Paul	6%	5%	2%
Duncan Hunter	1%	3%	2%
Tom Tancredo	n.a.	--	2%
Someone else / Don’t know	13%	17%	16%

Source: Bloomberg / Los Angeles Times
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 337 Republican primary voters, conducted from Jan. 18 to Jan. 22, 2008. Margin of error is 5 per cent.