Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Republicans 2008: Giuliani Barely Edges McCain

December 12, 2006
Abstract: - Two politicians are the early favourites in the race for the Republican Party's next presidential nomination in the United States, according to a poll by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion released by WNBC. 24 per cent of respondents would vote for former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, while 23 per cent would support Arizona senator John McCain.

- Two politicians are the early favourites in the race for the Republican Party's next presidential nomination in the United States, according to a poll by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion released by WNBC. 24 per cent of respondents would vote for former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, while 23 per cent would support Arizona senator John McCain.

U.S. state secretary Condoleezza Rice is third with 15 per cent, followed by former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich with eight per cent. Support is lower for Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, Tennessee senator Bill Frist, Nebraska senator Chuck Hagel, former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson, Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, Colorado congressman Tom Tancredo, and New York governor George Pataki.

Giuliani garnered national and international attention in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In 2000, McCain won seven Republican presidential primaries in the U.S., but retired from the race after eventual nominee George W. Bush became the frontrunner.

Last month, Thompson announced he intends to form a presidential exploratory committee. The former health and human services secretary said health care, energy independence and the war in Iraq would be the main issues in 2008, adding, "The times are right for my ideas."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Polling Data

If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
(Asked of Republicans and Republican leaning independents)

Dec. 2006

Sept. 2006

Feb. 2006

Rudy Giuliani

24%

23%

22%

John McCain

23%

15%

22%

Condoleezza Rice

15%

20%

22%

Newt Gingrich

8%

7%

5%

Mitt Romney

4%

4%

4%

Bill Frist

3%

4%

2%

Chuck Hagel

2%

--

1%

Tommy Thompson

1%

--

--

Mike Huckabee

1%

--

--

Tom Tancredo

1%

1%

1%

George Pataki

1%

2%

2%

Sam Brownback

--

1%

--

Undecided

17%

21%

17%

Source: Marist College Institute for Public Opinion / WNBC
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 967 registered American voters, including 327 Democrats, 294 Republicans, and 314 independents, conducted from Nov. 27 to Dec. 3, 2006. Margin of error for the subsample of Democrats and Republican leaners is 5 per cent.