December 15, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - There is no clear leader in the national race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in the United States, according to a poll by American Research Group. 21 per cent of respondents would vote for former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani in a 2008 primary, while 21 per cent would back former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - There is no clear leader in the national race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in the United States, according to a poll by American Research Group. 21 per cent of respondents would vote for former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani in a 2008 primary, while 21 per cent would back former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee.

Arizona senator John McCain is third with 18 per cent, followed by former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney with 16 per cent. Support is lower for actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, Texas congressman Ron Paul, Colorado congressman Tom Tancredo, and California congressman Duncan Hunter.

On Dec. 12 during a televised debate, Giuliani discussed his fiscal policies, saying, "There are three major things that we have to do. First, we have to reduce government spending and we have to be very disciplined about that. (...) We have to say that we’re not going to rehire half of the civilian employees that come up for retirement. (...) And then we have to reduce taxes. Right now, we should reduce the corporate tax. We should reduce it from 35 per cent to 25 per cent. It would be a major boost in revenues from the government. "

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Polling Data

If the 2008 Republican presidential preference primary/caucus were being held today between (...), for whom would you vote?

	Dec. 2007	Nov. 2007	Oct. 2007
Rudy Giuliani	21%	25%	24%
Mike Huckabee	21%	6%	6%
John McCain	18%	12%	14%
Mitt Romney	16%	21%	15%
Fred Thompson	6%	17%	16%
Ron Paul	5%	4%	2%
Tom Tancredo	1%	1%	2%
Duncan Hunter	1%	1%	2%
Alan Keyes	--	1%	1%
Sam Brownback	n.a.	n.a.	1%
Undecided	11%	12%	17%

Source: American Research Group
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 600 likely Republican primary voters, conducted from Dec. 9 to Dec. 12, 2007. Margin of error is 4 per cent.