February 10, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The presidential candidate picked by Russian president Vladimir Putin to succeed him in the Kremlin will almost certainly win next month’s ballot, according to a poll by the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center. 63 per cent of respondents would vote for Dmitry Medvedev in the March election.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The presidential candidate picked by Russian president Vladimir Putin to succeed him in the Kremlin will almost certainly win next month’s ballot, according to a poll by the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center. 63 per cent of respondents would vote for Dmitry Medvedev in the March election.

Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky is a distant second with seven per cent, followed by Communist Party (KPRF) leader Gennady Zyuganov also with seven per cent, and independent candidate Andrei Bogdanov with one per cent.

Putin was elected to a second term as president in March 2004 with 71.31 per cent of all cast ballots. In April 2005, Putin ruled out seeking a new mandate, saying, "I will not change the constitution and in line with the constitution, you cannot run for president three times in a row."

Russian voters renewed the State Duma in December 2007. United Russia (YR)—whose candidate list was headed by Putin—secured 64.1 per cent of the vote and 315 of the legislature’s 450 seats. Under the country’s recently implemented proportional representation system, only three other political organizations—the KPRF, the LDPR and A Just Russia—elected lawmakers to the lower house.

In December 2007, Putin endorsed Medvedev as a presidential candidate, and Medvedev said it would be of the "utmost importance" to have Putin as prime minister.

On Feb. 6, Europe’s top electoral monitoring body—the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)—announced it will not observe the March ballot citing obstruction by the Russian authorities.

Christian Strohal, head of the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), announced the decision, saying, "We made every effort in good faith to deploy our mission, even under the conditions imposed by the Russian authorities. (...) We have a responsibility to all 56 participating states to fulfil our mandate, and the Russian Federation has created limitations that are not conducive to undertaking election observation in accordance with it." Russia’s foreign ministry called the OSCE’s decision "unacceptable."

The presidential election in Russia is scheduled for Mar. 2.

Polling Data

If the presidential election were conducted this Sunday, which of these candidates would you vote for?

Dmitry Medvedev	63%
Vladimir Zhirinovsky	7%
Gennady Zyuganov	7%
Andrei Bogdanov	1%
Other / Would not vote	22%

Source: All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center
Methodology: Interviews with 1,600 Russian adults, conducted on Feb. 2 and Feb. 3, 2008. Margin of error is 3.4 per cent.