March 05, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The governing Socialist Worker’s Party (PSOE) could earn a new term in office in Spain, according to a review of the last four publicly released voting intention surveys. 43.6 per cent of decided voters would back the PSOE, while 39.1 per cent would back the conservative Popular Party (PP).

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The governing Socialist Worker’s Party (PSOE) could earn a new term in office in Spain, according to a review of the last four publicly released voting intention surveys. 43.6 per cent of decided voters would back the PSOE, while 39.1 per cent would back the conservative Popular Party (PP).

In addition, 17.3 per cent of respondents would vote for other parties. Nine smaller parties hold seats in the current legislature: the coalition of United Left (IU) and Initiative for Catalonia-Greens (IC-V), Catalonia’s Convergence and Union (CiU), the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), the Canarian Coalition (CC), the Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG), the Aragonese Junta (CHA), Basque Solidarity (EA), and Navarra’s Nafarroa Bai (NaBai).

PSOE leader José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero was sworn in as president of the government in April 2004, following his party’s victory in the legislative ballot. The conservative PP had administered the government under José María Aznar since 1996. Mariano Rajoy took over as PP leader in August 2003.

On Mar. 4, Zapatero and Rajoy participated in the second and final televised debate of the campaign. Zapatero criticized Rajoy’s views on immigration, saying, "When you talk about immigration you forget a fundamental issue—cooperation, the social dialogue. I know that the idea of dialogue brings you out in a rash but you cannot form an efficient immigration policy unless you have agreement with employers and unions. All the work we have done on immigration over the last four years has had the agreement of employers and unions."

Rajoy expressed dismay, declaring, "You have not instigated a negotiated policy with unions or employers, you have done absolutely nothing, nothing apart from giving papers to many people, a move that has been criticized throughout the European Union and that has caused lots of problems for the Spanish people. You have not put any money towards integrating the immigrants, you’re not aware of this problem."

The general election is scheduled for Mar. 9.

Polling Data

What party would you support in the next general election?

	Noxa	Publi.	Sigma	Opina	Average
Socialist Worker’s Party (PSOE)	43.5%	43.9%	43.4%	43.5%	43.6%
Popular Party (PP)	39.5%	39.5%	39.3%	38.0%	39.1%
Other parties	17.0%	16.6%	17.3%	18.5%	17.3%

Source: Instituto Noxa / La Vanguardia
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,200 Spanish adults, conducted from Feb. 26 to Feb. 29, 2008. Margin of error is 2.9 per cent.

Source: Publiscopio
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 7,200 Spanish adults, conducted from Feb. 18 to Mar. 1, 2008. Margin of error is 1.1 per cent.

Source: Sigma Dos / El Mundo
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 11,000 Spanish adults, conducted from Feb. 20 to Mar. 1, 2008. Margin of error is 1.2 per cent.

Source: Instituto Opina / Cadena Ser
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 Spanish adults, conducted on Mar. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.