July 27, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Former Seoul mayor Lee Myung-bak holds a smaller lead in South Korea's presidential race, according to a poll by Gallup Korea published in Chosun Ilbo. 37.2 per cent of respondents would vote for Lee of the conservative Grand National Party (GNP) in this year's election, down 6.7 points since March.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Former Seoul mayor Lee Myung-bak holds a smaller lead in South Korea's presidential race, according to a poll by Gallup Korea published in Chosun Ilbo. 37.2 per cent of respondents would vote for Lee of the conservative Grand National Party (GNP) in this year's election, down 6.7 points since March.

Former GNP chairwoman Park Geun-hye is second with 27.6 per cent, up 7.3 points in four months. Former Kyonggi governor Sohn Hak-kyu is third with 6.7 per cent, followed by former Uri Party chairman Chung Dong-young with two per cent. Support is lower for health and welfare minister Rhyu Si-min, and former prime minister Lee Hae-chan.

Roh Moo-hyun won the December 2002 presidential election with 49 per cent of all cast ballots as a candidate for the Millennium Democratic Party (MDP). In February 2004, Roh severed ties with the MDP and publicly voiced his support for the Uri Party. Lawmakers from the MDP and the GNP successfully voted to initiate impeachment procedures against Roh. Former prime minister Goh Kun briefly took over as interim president before the country's Constitutional Court ruled in favour of Roh.

Lee Myung-bak has called for South Korea to take a harder line on North Korea and to promote free-market policies. Park Geun-hye is currently serving her third term in the country's legislature. Her father, Park Chung Hee, was South Korea's president from 1963 to 1979. Sohn Hak-kyu, who is running as an independent, is also deemed a conservative-leaning candidate.

On Jul. 18, the GNP held a hearing in order to determine who the best candidate for the party is. Lee was asked about an ongoing investigation into purportedly illegal real estate transactions and responded: "I was too occupied with overseas business trips at the time to speculate on land or get involved in such transactions. (...) Why would I use other people's names to buy and sell land when I could've done that myself as a businessman? I didn't even think at the time I would enter politics later."

Polling Data

Which candidate would you support in the presidential election?

	Jul. 2007	Mar. 2007	Jan. 2007
Lee Myung-bak	37.2%	43.9%	50.8%
Park Geun-hye	27.6%	20.3%	22.5%
Sohn Hak-kyu	6.7%	8.2%	3.3%
Chung Dong-young	2.0%	2.4%	2.4%
Rhyu Si-min	1.5%	1.1%	--
Lee Hae-chan	1.4%	--	--

Source: Gallup Korea / Chosun Ilbo
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,026 South Korean adults, conducted in July 2007. Margin of error is 3.6 per cent.