November 16, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Less than a quarter of adults in the Palestinian Territories would cast a ballot for Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a future presidential election, according to a poll by the Jerusalem Media & Communication Center. 47.1 per cent of respondents would support Fatah leader and Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas, while 23.3 per cent would vote for Haniyeh.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Less than a quarter of adults in the Palestinian Territories would cast a ballot for Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a future presidential election, according to a poll by the Jerusalem Media & Communication Center. 47.1 per cent of respondents would support Fatah leader and Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas, while 23.3 per cent would vote for Haniyeh.

If Haniyeh were to contest the ballot against imprisoned Fatah member Marwan Barghouti, 53.1 per cent of respondents would back Barghouti, and 23.1 per cent would vote for Haniyeh.

Barghouti was convicted in an Israeli court and sentenced to five life terms in prison for his alleged involvement in deadly attacks by the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades. Many Palestinians believe the charges against Barghouti were made up, and he is considered a political prisoner.

Fatah candidate Abbas won the January 2005 presidential ballot in the Palestinian Territories with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister in March. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

In February, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing Palestinian administration, headed by Hamas, which would "respect" past peace agreements with Israel. In June, amid a wave of violent clashes between Palestinian supporters of the Hamas and Fatah factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza. Abbas issued a decree to form a 12-member emergency government—based in the West Bank—and expelled Hamas from the administration. Hamas has refused to recognize the legitimacy of the government led by Abbas.

On Nov. 14, Hamas officials in Gaza said journalists who do not hold Hamas-issued press cards would not be allowed to work in the territory as of now. If a media outlet accepts to hold the card, it is subject to restrictions such as banning stories that could "cause harm to national unity" or do not uphold "national responsibilities."

Gaza’s Ministry of the Interior issued a statement on its website, which read: "The decision came after the (Nov. 12) rally of the Fatah movement in which dozens of cameramen and photographers were observed, not working for any media organization, but using these cameras for political parties and for personal reasons."

Polling Data

If presidential elections were to be held today, and the only candidates were Ismail Haniyeh and Mahmoud Abbas, which one would you vote for?

Mahmoud Abbas	47.1%
Ismail Haniyeh	23.3%
Won’t vote	27.2%
No answer	2.4%

If presidential elections were to be held today, and the only candidates were Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, which one would you vote for?

Marwan Barghouti	53.1%
Ismail Haniyeh	23.1%
Won’t vote	21.6%
No answer	2.2%

Source: Jerusalem Media & Communication Center
Methodology: Interviews with 1,200 adults in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, conducted from Nov. 3 to Nov. 6, 2007. Margin of error is 3 per cent.