June 27, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Many Palestinians would vote for Marwan Barghouti in the next presidential election, according to a poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. 59 per cent of respondents would support the incarcerated member of Fatah, while 35 per cent would back Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Many Palestinians would vote for Marwan Barghouti in the next presidential election, according to a poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. 59 per cent of respondents would support the incarcerated member of Fatah, while 35 per cent would back Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

In a separate contest, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas holds a seven-point advantage over Haniyeh. In a prospective election to the Palestinian Legislative Council, Fatah leads Hamas by 10 points.

Fatah candidate Abbas won the January 2005 presidential election with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister in March. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

In February, Hamas and Fatah agreed to establish a power-sharing Palestinian administration, headed by Hamas, which would "respect" past peace agreements with Israel. On Jun. 14, amid a wave of violent clashes between supporters of the two factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza. Abbas issued a decree to form a 12-member emergency government—based in the West Bank—and expelled Hamas from the administration.

On Jun. 24, Haniyeh declared during a street rally in Gaza: "We have faced a series of conspiracies against us. Our privileges have been discharged and many obstacles were placed in our way over the last few months. This trend is connected to Fatah, which has been supplied with money and all necessary equipment to bring the Hamas movement down."

Polling Data

If new presidential elections are to take place today, and Mahmoud Abbas was nominated by Fatah and Ismail Haniyeh was nominated by Hamas, whom would you vote for?

	Jun. 2007	Mar. 2007
Mahmoud Abbas	49%	46.7%
Ismail Haniyeh	42%	45.6%
Not sure	9%	7.7%

And if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti representing Fatah and Ismail Haniyeh representing Hamas, whom would you vote for?

	Jun. 2007	Mar. 2007
Marwan Barghouti	59%	51.5%
Ismail Haniyeh	35%	43.4%
Not sure	6%	5.1%

If new parliamentary elections are held today, who would you vote for?

Fatah	43%
Change and Reform (Hamas)	33%
Other parties	12%
Undecided	13%

Source: Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews to 1,270 Palestinian adults in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, conducted from Jun. 14 to Jun. 20, 2007. Margin of error is 3 per cent.