December 23, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Many residents of the Gaza Strip and West Bank have little hope that they will see the creation of a new country over the next five years, according to a poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. 65 per cent of respondents think the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state are either slim or non-existent.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Many residents of the Gaza Strip and West Bank have little hope that they will see the creation of a new country over the next five years, according to a poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. 65 per cent of respondents think the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state are either slim or non-existent.

In 1948, the British government withdrew from the mandate and the state of Israel was created in roughly 15,000 square kilometres of the mandate’s land, with the remaining areas split under the control of Egypt and Transjordan. Since then, the region has seen constant disagreement between Israel and the Palestinians, represented for decades by the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). Wars broke out in the region in the second half of the 20th Century, involving Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Egypt.

Around 750,000 Palestinians fled or were forced to leave their territory during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. An independent Palestinian state is considered the main provision of the road map for peace in the Middle East, developed by The Quartet, which includes the United States, the UN, the European Union (EU) and Russia.

Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas is currently heading the Palestinian Authority from the West Bank, endorsed by Israel and most of the Western international community. Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas has become the de-facto leader in the Gaza Strip.

Last month, Abbas and leaders from the United States, Israel and several Arab countries attended an international conference on Middle East affairs in Annapolis, Maryland. The meeting was brokered by United States president George W. Bush. On Nov. 27, Abbas and Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert announced they would work towards having a peace treaty signed by the end of 2008, which would include the creation of a Palestinian state.

On Dec. 17, Israeli foreign affairs minister Tzipi Livni attended a conference of aid-donors to the Palestinian Authority and endorsed the creation of a Palestinian state, saying, "The establishment of a peaceful and prosperous Palestinian state that respects law and order and fulfills the legitimate national aspirations of its people is not just a Palestinian dream—it is also an Israeli interest."

Polling Data

How would you rate the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state in the next five years?

Medium / High	32%
Slim / Non-existent	65%
Not sure	3%

Source: Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews to 1,270 Palestinian adults in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, conducted from Dec. 11 to Dec. 16, 2007. Margin of error is 3 per cent.