Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Palestinians Fear Civil War, Nix Peacekeepers

June 07, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Most Palestinians believe the current tension in their territories could spiral into a full-blown civil war, according to a poll by Near East Consulting. 65 per cent of respondents think this possibility is likely or very likely to become a reality.

Fatah candidate Mahmoud Abbas won the January 2005 presidential ballot with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Ismail Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister in March. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

On Feb. 8 in Saudi Arabia, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing Palestinian administration, headed by Hamas, which would "respect" past peace agreements with Israel. The new coalition government was sworn in on Mar. 17.

In May, Hamas militants launched more than 200 rockets into Israel. The Israeli government has retaliated with air strikes targeting suspected compounds and businesses that allegedly transfer money to Hamas.

This month, the Palestinian Independent Commission for Citizens' Rights revealed that 616 Palestinians have died in street battles between armed supporters of Fatah and Hamas since January 2006. 68 per cent of respondents would oppose allowing an international presence in Gaza to stop the violence from spreading.

On Jun. 5, Abbas acknowledged anxiety within the Fatah ranks, saying, "On the internal front, the cause of everybody's concern is what is called the security chaos, or more precisely, standing on the brink of civil war."

Polling Data

Do you think a a full-blown civil war in the occupied territories is likely or unlikely to happen?

Very likely

27%

Likely

38%

Unlikely

29%

Very unlikely

6%

Do you support or oppose allowing an international presence in Gaza to stop the violence from spreading?

Support

32%

Oppose

68%

Source: Near East Consulting
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 801 Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Jerusalem, conducted from May 22 to May 24, 2007. Margin of error is 3.4 per cent.

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