Polls & Research

Opposition Candidate is Frontrunner in Panama

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Ricardo Martinelli of the opposition Democratic Change (CD) is the early favourite in Panama’s presidential race, according to a poll by Unimer published in La Prensa. 22.7 per cent of respondents would vote for the businessman in the 2009 ballot.

Former housing minister Balbina Herrera of the governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) is second with 20.9 per cent, followed by PRD member Juan Carlos Navarro with 11.2 per cent. Support is lower for Juan Carlos Varela and Alberto Vallarino of the Panameñista Party (PPA), and former president Guillermo Endara of the Moral Vanguard of the Homeland (VMP).

PRD member Martín Torrijos—the son of Omar Torrijos, an army general who ruled Panama from 1968 to 1981—won the May 2004 presidential election with 47.44 per cent of the vote. Torrijos’ tenure has been marked by his support for an ambitious plan to expand the Panama Canal with an investment of $5.25 billion U.S. In October 2006, the proposal was ratified in a nationwide referendum.

The PRD will hold a primary ballot to select the party’s official candidate on Sept. 7.

On Jun. 15, Martinelli officially launched his presidential bid, saying, "Enough with the same poverty, with the same insecurity and the same unemployment. CD represents change to solve the country’s problems, which were deepened by PRD administrations." In the 2004 ballot, Martinelli finished in fourth place with 5.31 per cent of the vote.

The next presidential election in Panama is scheduled for May 3, 2009.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the next presidential election?

Ricardo Martinelli (CD)	22.7%
Balbina Herrera (PRD)	20.9%
Juan Carlos Navarro (PRD)	11.2%
Juan Carlos Varela (PPA)	9.4%
Alberto Vallarino (PPA)	7.4%
Guillermo Endara (VMP)	1.7%
None of these	26.7%

Source: Unimer / La Prensa
Methodology: Interviews with 1,204 Panamanian adults, conducted from Jun. 14 to Jun. 18, 2008. Margin of error is 2.9 per cent.